The Tally Room

After a brief intermission, this blog is back from today to cover this month's New South Wales state election. Unfortunately due to the tight timeframes around the New Zealand, Victorian and Queensland elections I was delayed in completing my NSW guide. I have now...

One of the biggest stories of the recent Queensland state election was the huge shift in preference flows towards Labor, with a big drop in the exhaustion rate across the state. Opinion polling was quite accurate in predicting primary votes, but the method of distributing...

At this point, we've basically reached the conclusion of the Queensland election coverage. Despite the hysterics from the Courier-Mail and Lawrence Springborg, Labor has won the election and should be expected to form government shortly with the support of Peter Wellington. If there is a...

Despite Tony Abbott's win in the party room this morning, the odds of his leadership surviving until the next election are not great. Almost every previous example of an incumbent leader surviving an internal leadership challenge was only a reprieve, with that leader losing their...

It appears that there are very few remaining votes to be counted in key seats in the Queensland state election, and it appears likely that the final result will be 44 seats for Labor, 42 for the Liberal National Party, 2 for Katter's Australian...

Counting yesterday saw Labor's position improved in one key seat, and weakened in another. One Nation's Pauline Hanson slightly improved her position in Lockyer. In Whitsunday, the LNP lead narrowed from 163 to 88 and then blew out to 355 votes. In the seats of...

Most of yesterday's attention was focused on the seats of Lockyer and Gaven, where new preference counts have been mostly completed today after the two candidates selected for the election-night two-party count proved to be incorrect in both seats. As of last night, the LNP's Ian...

The final polls of the campaign all told the same story - the LNP leading with 52% of the two-party-preferred vote over Labor. This is certainly not what happened - in the seats where Labor and the LNP came in the top two, Labor...

Rather than editing the original post, I've decided to post each morning covering the counting in key seats over the previous day. Yesterday, I identified Ferny Grove, Glass House, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney, Redlands and Whitsunday as seats worth watching. I've now also added Gaven...

TLDR - Yes, she could, but it's going to be close. On Saturday night, it was a minor story that Pauline Hanson had polled quite highly in the south-east Queensland seat of Lockyer, winning 27.3% of the primary vote, ahead of Labor but 6% behind...