The Tally Room

Tasmanian Senate button-push – summary

Ben Raue - July 28, 2016

I've got a piece prepared for the Guardian today which discusses the Tasmanian Senate result but I had some thoughts that didn't fit in to include here. Firstly, the challenge in winning a seat from below the line isn't just in gaining enough primary votes...

Double NSW elections – the guide

Ben Raue - July 22, 2016

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There are two New South Wales state seats which are due to hold by-elections this year, after the incumbent MPs resigned to run (successfully) in the federal election. Labor MP Linda Burney resigned from the inner-west Sydney seat of Canterbury to run for Barton, and...

QLD redistribution – the numbers

Ben Raue - July 21, 2016

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Queensland is about to dive into a redistribution of state electorates, to update the existing electoral map which was created in the lead up to the 2009 election. Queensland currently has 89 electorates, but will be adding four additional seats for the next election, thanks...

Map update – ward maps for NSW and Victoria

Ben Raue - July 19, 2016

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As we get close to the conclusion of the federal election, I've started work on some upcoming elections. There will be council elections in New South Wales in September this year, and in Victoria in October. These elections will cover the whole of Victoria, and...

Toowoomba South results

Ben Raue - July 16, 2016

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Voters in the Queensland state seat of Toowoomba South voted today in a by-election to succeed Liberal National MP John McVeigh, who had resigned from the seat to run (successfully) for the federal seat of Groom. I'd taken the night off after the last two...

Close seats – two weeks in

Ben Raue - July 16, 2016

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It's now been two weeks since polls opened, and we are now getting very close to a conclusion of the House of Representatives count. There is only one conventional seat still in play, which is Herbert. There will also be news today in Melbourne Ports...

Close seats – Thursday morning update

Ben Raue - July 14, 2016

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We're getting close to the end! In this update, I am calling two more seats for Labor, leaving only one seat up for grabs. This leaves a total of: 76 - Coalition 68 - Labor 5 - Others 1 - undecided Seat Absent Provisional Pre-poll Postal Current Labor lead Projected Labor lead Cowan 2219 0 2774 216 1030 728 Herbert 276 969 867 1098 -34 -196 Hindmarsh 2644 1571 489 791 617 889 Cowan There...

Senate preferences – how might they flow? Part 2

Ben Raue - July 13, 2016

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Following yesterday's post analysing the NSW, VIC and QLD Senate counts, here's my analysis of Western Australia, South Australia and an update of the Tasmanian race. Western Australia Full quotas: 5 Liberal, 3 Labor, 1 Greens Parties in the race: 0.7027 - Labor 0.5025 - One Nation 0.3378...

Senate preferences – how might they flow? Part 1

Ben Raue - July 12, 2016

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Up until now, I've largely ignored preferences when working out who are the leading contenders for Senate seats. While the new system will likely make it impossible for parties on a tiny vote to jump ahead of a number of contenders, preferences are still...

Close seats – Tuesday morning update

Ben Raue - July 12, 2016

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Sorry there was no update yesterday - I only have limited time each day and I devoted it to my takedown of electronic voting in the Guardian. In today's update I'm calling three more seats for the Coalition giving them 76 seats. Labor is leading...