LAB 10.2% vs NAT
Incumbent MP
Iain Lees-Galloway, since 2008.
Geography
Palmerston North covers the town of the same name. The electorate’s northern and western boundaries follow the local government boundary, with the Manawatu River on the southern boundary. The electorate is entirely surrounded by Rangitīkei, which covers semi-rural parts of Palmerston North council area.
Redistribution
No change.
History
The Palmerston North electorate has existed since 1890, and has been held by Labour continuously since 1978.
Steve Maharey won the seat in 1990, and held the seat until his retirement in 2008. He served as a minister in the Labour government from 1999 to 2008.
In 2008, the Labour margin in Palmerston North dropped from 17.2% to 3.3%, when Maharey was succeeded by Iain Lees-Galloway.
In 2011, Lees-Galloway was re-elected, and increased his margin to 10.2%.
Candidates
- Darroch Ball (New Zealand First #10)
- Pani Farvid (Internet #14)
- Iain Lees-Galloway (Labour #24), Member for Palmerston North.
- Jono Naylor (National #51), Mayor of Palmerston North.
- Mark Pearce (Conservative)
Assessment
Palmerston North is held by Labour by a 10.2% majority, which is substantially less than the 17.2% margin in 2005. Lees-Galloway has now held the seat for two terms and should be a strong candidate, but will face strong opposition in the National Party’s Jono Naylor, the local Mayor. Lees-Galloway only held on by 3.3% in 2008, which suggests Labour’s hold on Palmerston North is less than solid. Despite all these matters, Labour is the favourite to win this seat.
2011 election results
| Electorate Votes | Party Votes | ||||||
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Votes | % | Swing |
| Iain Lees-Galloway | Labour | 16,525 | 51.32 | +4.50 | 11,194 | 33.88 | -6.80 |
| Leonie Hapeta | National | 13,240 | 41.12 | -2.43 | 14,577 | 44.12 | +3.46 |
| Corrina Tucker | Green | 1,485 | 4.61 | +0.19 | 3,469 | 10.50 | +3.99 |
| Andrew Marquet | Conservative | 675 | 2.10 | +2.10 | 997 | 3.02 | +3.02 |
| Daniel Stratton | ACT | 167 | 0.52 | -0.71 | 245 | 0.74 | -1.99 |
| Mohamed Eusoff | United Future | 109 | 0.34 | -0.42 | 210 | 0.64 | -0.60 |
| New Zealand First | 1,870 | 5.66 | +1.61 | ||||
| Māori | 168 | 0.51 | -0.20 | ||||
| Legalise Cannabis | 157 | 0.48 | +0.07 | ||||
| Mana | 94 | 0.28 | +0.28 | ||||
| Alliance | 23 | 0.07 | +0.02 | ||||
| Libertarianz | 19 | 0.06 | +0.01 | ||||
| Democrats | 15 | 0.05 | +0.03 | ||||
Booth breakdown
Booths in Palmerston North have been divided into four areas:
- Central – Milson, Palmerston North and West End
- East – Kelvin Grove, Parkland, Roslyn and Terrace End
- Hokowhitu
- West – Awapuni, Cloverlea, Highbury, Takaro
The Labour Party won a majority of the electorate vote in three out of four areas, with a vote ranging from 51.7% in Central to 58.2% in West. National won 50.2% in Hokowhitu.
The Labour party vote is much lower, ranging from 24.1% in Hokowhitu to 40.7% in West. Labour only outpolled National in West. The National party vote ranged from 38.7% in West to 53.3% in Hokowhitu.
The Green Party came third, with a party vote ranging from 7.% in West to 12.4% in Hokowhitu.
| Voter group | Electorate votes | Party votes | Total | % of votes | |||||
| LAB | NAT | GRN | NAT | LAB | GRN | NZF | |||
| Central | 51.70 | 40.20 | 5.28 | 43.68 | 33.04 | 11.55 | 5.92 | 8,330 | 25.87 |
| West | 58.21 | 35.57 | 3.36 | 38.73 | 40.74 | 7.81 | 7.24 | 6,550 | 20.34 |
| East | 53.34 | 39.52 | 3.81 | 43.20 | 35.60 | 8.91 | 5.76 | 6,243 | 19.39 |
| Hokowhitu | 43.27 | 50.15 | 3.82 | 53.32 | 24.08 | 12.35 | 4.37 | 4,481 | 13.92 |
| Other votes | 47.54 | 43.16 | 6.31 | 44.65 | 33.17 | 12.02 | 4.60 | 6,597 | 20.49 |
My prediction: Likely Labour hold, although could go National before other seats weaker for Labour.