Nightcliff – NT 2024

Interestingly Natasha Fyles hasn’t resigned from Parliament or announced she won’t run in 2024 given that she resigned as Chief Minister over a scandal.

Given the dire polling here in the NT there is a real chance the Greens could benefit here especially if the CLP preference them above Labor.

It is worth noting the polling was taken last year however this an old government and like QLD law and order as well as cost of living are not playing Labor’s favour in the NT.

Winning Nightcliff at this election is a bit of a pipe dream for the NT Greens, but if they play their cards right (I don’t know how competent the NT branch is) they could pick it up by 2032 or maybe even 2028

CLP can pick up votes from Labor and regain votes from TA. I see the primary vote order as ALP, CLP, GRN. The Greens could get their best ever result in NT history here.

@Votante they already did, didn’t they?

I don’t see the NT Greens winning any seats in the near future simply because they don’t campaign as well and they don’t even contest every seat unlike the federal branch and other state and territory branches where they run candidates in every seat.

By all accounts it seems like Fyles is indeed recontesting the seat. I would have thought if you were Chief Minister and stepped down due to an integrity scandal, your political career is pretty much over.

Rudd and Abbott hung around, but Fyles wasn’t knifed, she resigned. I don’t think she will have much of a leg to stand on if she were to attempt to return to the top job (even as opposition leader). And the voters of Nightcliff would know it.

Unless she’s an outstanding local MP, I don’t think as a “has been” she will be a particularly strong contender for the seat. This isn’t CLP territory, so this is the best opportunity Greens have ever had to win. NT Greens are campaigning a lot harder this election than previous elections, though at a glance it seems like there’s more energy in the Fannie Bay campaign than here.

She’s very well liked in her electorate

@Whoknows but she’s hated outside of northern Darwin.

Ok. That’s your very strong opinion, I was just stating she’s well liked in her electorate

@Whoknows I know people in Alice Springs and Katherine who say everyone there hated her. She may be well liked in her electorate but she isn’t elsewhere which is what counts at an election, similar to how Bob Katter is well liked in his seat of Kennedy but not so much elsewhere.

@Nether Portal Katter seems to be well liked by both progressives and conservatives alike, at least from what I see on the Internet.

Nether Portal, I’m ready bemused by some of your comments above. What does contesting every seat have to do with winning one of them? The Nationals do not contest every seat but still win plenty in the states they’re active in. And why does it count at an election if Fyles is disliked outside Nightcliff when she’s no longer Premier? Tony Abbott being disliked outside his electorate didn’t stop the Coalition winning the 2016 federal election.

Reading between the lines in social media, the Greens don’t seem to be targeting this as much as Fannie Bay and Braitling and have emphasised it less as the campaign has gone on. Perhaps what Whoknows said about Fyles (that she is still popular in Nightcliff) has come across through the course of the campaign. If that’s the case, makes sense for Greens to wait for Fyles to quit parliament.

If Greens aren’t bringing their A game here, easy ALP retain.

@Nether Portal Katter’s Australian Party won three seats at the QLD election, but only contested a handful of seats. One Nation didn’t contest every seat in 2017, but won Mirani. Winning seats has nothing to do with running in every seat.

Agree Wilson and AA, in fact by not running in every contest statewide this allows a party to selectively target which seats they want to win by allocating the most resources to.

Scart – can’t speak for progressives everywhere but from personal experience the popularity of Katter (and Lambie and others like Maguire and the ex-Shooters in NSW is based on them being “better than the LNP”, as well as getting some support on major party vs minor party issues (usually on things related to corporate donations and integrity). Full far right parties like PHON don’t get the “better than LNP” treatment, and in turn they are usually more reliable voting partners for the LNP.

This extends to the preferences of Labor and Green voters in Kennedy, both on HTVs and how they vote.

From there it’s an issue by issue basis. When they go very socially conservative or racist, they get jeered. When they stand up for workers or renewable energy in their electorates, they get praised.

The low point for Katter was when Fraser Anning was in his party. If he kept playing to the far right instead of a broader anti politics sentiment with deep connections to local issues, the LNP could probably take Kennedy on a depressed vote and it no longer being tenable for Labor to put him above the LNP on their HTVs.

Back to Nightcliff, Fyles probably knows most of the voters in the electorate personally (NT electorates are small enough for that) and with the relatively small amounts of money involved you could get a sense that the scandal she resigned over was overblown and voters thinking their member was hard done by.

@john I think she may have grown up in the suburb of Nightcliff which is why she is popular

CLP put Greens last as they have in every other seat. Unlike Fannie Bay and Braitling, this is a seat where that would make a difference.

ALP retain unless Mililma May gets some momentum, and even then seems like there’s no strong signs Fyles has lost popularity in the seat.

Natasha Fyles (Labor) leads by 287 votes.

fyles will win unless may can overtake the greens

Based on current figures May cannot overtake Greens as even if she receives 100% preferences from the last placed candidate, she will still trail the Greens by 10 votes or so.

Unless all outstanding votes happen to go to May, which is highly unlikely. A May victory is a remote possibility at this stage.

Alternatively, CLP to Green preferences happen to flow stronger than normal which could be a possibility for a non-Fyles/Labor victory.

!yoh an id say they will do a recount just to be sure but at this stage fyle will win clp recommend placing greens last so they wont win on clp preferences. their best hopes is if fyles retires which would probably set up an interesting contest between greens and may if she recontested otherwise the greens would surely win

Greens might win here

@drake holy s came from nowhere

Jeez this was unexpected! Kat McNamara (Greens) leads Natasha Fyles (Labor) by 42 votes.

According to the ABC: “Preferences have been re-thrown for a Labor versus Greens count and the Greens lead by 42 votes. Overall 61.5% of CLP and Independent preferences favoured the Greens. We do not have individual preference flows, but it looks like CLP preferences favoured Labor, but Independent May’s preferences appear very strong for the Greens. Losing Nightcliff leaves Labor with just four seats and holding no urban seats, having been wiped out in Darwin and Palmerston [and holding no seats in Alice Springs].”

@NP i think its a formality fyles would have porbably resigned and then the greens would have swoped in anyway just saving the NT taxpayers some money by not having a by election

@John what’s most interesting about this though is that the Greens are winning from THIRD place, similar to Brisbane at the 2022 federal election (though the Greens were only 0.1% behind Labor in Brisbane, in Nightcliff they’re 1.8% behind the CLP).

Interesting that CLP preferences went so much to the Greens

Fyles defeat was probably unexpected. Having stood for reelection after her resignation for a share related scandal was surprising. The ALP has not tracked well for sometime and their defeat is not unexpected, although the magnitude is surprising. The fact CLP voters did not follow HTV suggests that Fyles was unpopular (probably not hated, but definitely a liability) and it would have been a big ask for ALP booth workers to be enthusiastically working for her. Fannie Bay and Nightcliff are the most likely Green targets in the NT, both leafy (in a tropical way) and middle class. A bit of surprise but could be challenge for the ALP to win it back in future.

@Martin Fannie Bay, Nightcliff, Port Darwin and Wanguri are upper-middle-class as they contain the richest parts of Darwin. Fannie Bay is where Darwin’s elite now live, and it’s the most expensive suburb in Darwin.