ALP 8.3%
Incumbent MP
Ngaree Ah Kit, since 2016.
Geography
Northern Darwin. Karama covers the suburbs of Karama, Malak, Holmes and Knuckey Lagoon.
Redistribution
Karama shifted east, losing Berrimah to Sanderson and gaining Holmes from Wanguri and Knuckey Lagoon from Nelson. These changes cut the Labor margin from 9.8% to 8.3%.
History
The electorate of Karama has existed since 1987. The electorate was held by the CLP until 2001, and has been won by Labor at every election since.
The CLP’s Mick Palmer won Karama in 1987. Palmer had held the seat of Leanyer since 1983, but moved to Karama after the redistribution. Palmer held Karama until 2001.
In 2001, Labor’s Delia Lawrie won the seat off Palmer. Lawrie was re-elected in 2005, 2008 and 2012. Lawrie joined the ministry in 2005. She was promoted to deputy chief minister in 2009.
Lawrie was elected Labor leader in 2012 after Labor lost power at the 2012 election. Lawrie faced legal issues related to the grant of a lease to Unions NT, and in April 2015 she stepped down as leader in the face of a leadership challenge.
In October 2015, the NT Labor Party decided to not endorse Lawrie for Karama at the 2016 election, and Lawrie resigned from the party to sit on the crossbench.
The seat was won in 2016 by Labor candidate Ngaree Ah Kit, who narrowly defeated Lawrie, running as an independent. Ah Kit won a second term in 2020.
- Andy Rowan (Greens)
- Brian O’Gallagher (Country Liberal)
- Justine Glover (Independent)
- Ngaree Ah Kit (Labor)
Assessment
Karama is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Ngaree Ah Kit | Labor | 2,129 | 51.1 | +17.2 | 49.1 |
| Brian O’Gallagher | Country Liberal | 1,166 | 28.0 | +4.4 | 29.5 |
| Caleb Cardno | Territory Alliance | 874 | 21.0 | +21.0 | 20.4 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 124 | 2.9 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Ngaree Ah Kit | Labor | 2,491 | 59.8 | -2.5 | 58.3 |
| Brian O’Gallagher | Country Liberal | 1,678 | 40.2 | +2.5 | 41.7 |
Booth breakdown
There was just one booth in Karama in 2020, with the same name. Labor polled 59.9% of the two-party-preferred vote in that booth. More than half of the vote was cast at pre-poll booths, and Labor’s 2PP was 54.8% amongst those voters.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 54.8 | 2,293 | 53.4 |
| Karama | 59.9 | 1,059 | 24.7 |
| Other votes | 57.7 | 938 | 21.9 |
Polling places surrounding Karama at the 2020 NT election
Should be Labor hold (for those that aren’t aware Labor has re-gained ground and the NT election is looking tight now)
It’s an article on NT News but it is a paywall, search “August election polling data shows Labor taking a narrow lead”
A minority Labor territorial government cannot be ruled out.
I think Labor will get this seat, otherwise Justine glover?
It’s odd how the dangerous parts of most cities seem to be the most Labor-voting because they’re quite working-class yet Karama which is one of the most dangerous suburbs in Darwin is located in a marginal Labor seat.
Mount Druitt (Chifley/Mount Druitt, Sydney), Tarneit (Lalor/Tarneit, Melbourne), Inala (Oxley/Inala, Brisbane), Windale (Shortland/Charlestown, Newcastle), etc are all very Labor-voting while Karama (Solomon/Karama, Darwin) is marginal.
I wouldn’t call Karama marginal – even after redist it is above 8%. Interesting the CLP picked the failed candidate that lost in 2020.
@top end Todd, it is strange they picked him
CLP HTV card:
1. CLP
2. Glover
3. Labor
4. Greens
If Justine Glover does well CLP preferences are going to favour her and she could potentially beat Labor if she finishes first or second.
Raue you have Karama has having “shifted west” when in fact it has shifted north and east
As I commented on the main thread, Ngaree Ah Kit is in hot water over an illegal flyer targeting independent Justine Glover.