ALP 10.9%
Incumbent MP
Brent Potter, since 2022.
Geography
Central Darwin. Fannie Bay covers suburbs immediately to the northwest of the Darwin city centre, including Fannie Bay, the Gardens, Parap, East Point, Coconut Grove and Ludmilla.
Redistribution
Fannie Bay expanded slightly north, taking in Coconut Grove from Johnston and Nightcliff.
The electorate of Fannie Bay has existed since the first NT assembly election in 1974. The seat has tended to be safe for one party then change hands when the MP retired. The seat’s last three members have all led their party.
The CLP’s Grant Tambling won Fannie Bay in 1974, and lost the seat in 1977. He later served in the federal Parliament, first representing the Northern Territory in the House of Representatives from 1980 to 1983, and then served as a Senator for the Northern Territory from 1987 until 2001.
Labor’s Pam O’Neill won Fannie Bay off Tambling in 1977 and held the seat for two terms, losing in 1983. She later served as federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner from 1984 to 1988.
The CLP’s Marshall Perron won Fannie Bay in 1983. Perron had represented the neighbouring seat of Stuart Park since 1974, and had served as deputy chief minister since 1978. A redistribution had abolished Stuart Park, so Perron ran for Fannie Bay.
Perron held Fannie Bay until his retirement in 1995. He served as chief minister from 1988 until 1995.
Labor’s Clare Martin won Fannie Bay at the 1995 by-election. She became Labor leader in 1999 and led the party to victory in 2001, becoming the first Labor chief minister of the Northern Territory. Martin resigned as Chief Minister in late 2007 and retired from the assembly in 2008.
Labor’s Michael Gunner succeeded Martin in 2008. He was elected leader of the ALP in 2015, and led the party back into government in 2016.
Gunner won a second term in office in 2020, and stepped down from the party leadership and as Chief Minister in 2022. He resigned his seat shortly after.
The 2022 by-election was won by Labor’s Brent Potter.
- Brent Potter (Labor)
- Suki Dorras-Walker (Greens)
- Laurie Zio (Country Liberal)
- Leonard May (Independent)
Assessment
Fannie Bay is a strong seat for Labor and they should retain the seat despite the close by-election result.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Michael Gunner | Labor | 2,095 | 48.2 | -8.2 | 48.5 |
| Tracey Hayes | Country Liberal | 1,510 | 34.8 | +1.0 | 33.1 |
| Peter Robertson | Greens | 444 | 10.2 | +10.2 | 11.1 |
| Rebecca Jennings | Territory Alliance | 242 | 5.6 | +5.6 | 5.9 |
| Mark Mackenzie | Independent | 54 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.1 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 85 | 1.9 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Michael Gunner | Labor | 2,588 | 59.6 | -2.9 | 60.9 |
| Tracey Hayes | Country Liberal | 1,757 | 40.4 | +2.9 | 39.1 |
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ben Hosking | Country Liberal | 1,451 | 41.4 | +6.6 |
| Brent Potter | Labor | 1,139 | 32.5 | -15.7 |
| Jonathan Parry | Greens | 699 | 19.9 | +9.7 |
| Leah Potter | Independent | 103 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Raj Samson Rajwin | Independent | 84 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| George Mamouzellos | Independent | 30 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 76 | 2.1 |
2022 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brent Potter | Labor | 1,844 | 52.6 | -7.0 |
| Ben Hosking | Country Liberal | 1,662 | 47.4 | +7.0 |
Booth breakdown
Two booths were contained in Fannie Bay in 2020: Ludmilla and Parap. To adjust for the redistribution, parts of Nightcliff and Millner booths were moved in from neighbouring seats.
All four of these booths had a very high Labor 2PP – over 70% in Nightcliff and Millner, and over 60% in Parap and Ludmilla.
Over half of the vote in 2020 was cast at pre-poll booths, and the Labor vote was generally lower amongst the pre-poll vote.
The election day vote was much larger in the 2022 by-election. Labor won the ordinary votes, while the CLP won the pre-poll vote.
2020 booth breakdown
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 57.3 | 2,552 | 52.2 |
| Other votes | 64.4 | 988 | 20.2 |
| Parap | 64.4 | 918 | 18.8 |
| Ludmilla | 61.4 | 282 | 5.8 |
| Nightcliff | 77.5 | 98 | 2.0 |
| Millner | 72.3 | 55 | 1.1 |
2022 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Parap | 55.8 | 1,442 | 41.1 |
| Pre-poll | 48.2 | 1,189 | 33.9 |
| Ludmilla | 53.9 | 456 | 13.0 |
| Other votes | 52.5 | 419 | 12.0 |
Polling places surrounding Fannie Bay at the 2020 NT election
Laurie Zio (CLP) currently leads by 55 votes.
the lead has shortened to 40 votes but there arent enough remaining votes for the greens to win. however a recount could change that
ABC News has predicted Fannie Bay will be a CLP gain as of 10 mins ago, though a recount is very likely to occur which could change the outcome, especially with the close gap between Labor and Greens.
@james agreed also because of the small gap between greens and clp on 2cp
Does anyone know if Labor would have won this on a notional 2PP basis (Labor vs CLP)?
@greens…. probably yes..in that case the greens in standing have cost the alp
The seat….. and by default helped the lnp win the seat