ALP 6.1%
Incumbent MP
Dheran Young, since 2021.
Geography
North-western parts of the Northern Territory. Daly covers rural areas south of Darwin, stretching to the edge of Katherine, and covering Berry Springs, Wadeye, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Pine Creek.
Redistribution
Daly contracted, losing its southern edge to Gwoja.
The electorate of Daly was created in 2001 as a new version of the seat of Victoria River. The seat had moved north and the name was no longer appropriate. The seat of Victoria River/Daly has been a marginal seat for its entire existence, switching back and forth between Labor and the CLP over the last 42 years.
Victoria River was created for the first NT assembly election in 1974 and was won by the CLP’s Goff Letts. Letts served as Majority Leader in the first assembly from 1974 to 1977. Letts lost Victoria River in 1977, while the CLP won a comfortable majority in the Assembly.
Labor’s Jack Doolan won Victoria River in 1977, and held the seat until 1983, when he contested the seat as an independent Labor candidate.
The CLP’s Terry McCarthy won Victoria River in 1983. He held the seat until 1990, when he moved to the new seat of Goyder, which he held until 2001.
Labor’s Gary Cartwright held Victoria River from 1990 until 1994, when he was replaced by the CLP’s Tim Baldwin. Baldwin held Victoria River until 2001 when it was renamed Daly. He held Daly for one term, until he retired in 2005.
Labor’s Rob Knight won Daly in 2005. He held the seat for two terms, losing in 2012 to the CLP’s Gary Higgins.
Higgins became a minister in 2015, and was re-elected at the 2016 election. He was one of only two CLP members to win re-election, and he became leader of the party after the electoral wipe-out.
Higgins announced his retirement in early 2020, and stepped down as Country Liberal Party leader.
Daly was won in 2020 by CLP candidate Ian Sloan. Sloan held the seat for just one year, resigning in 2021. The subsequent by-election was won by Labor candidate Dheran Young.
- Kris Civitarese (Country Liberal)
- Dheran Young (Labor)
Assessment
This is now a Labor seat and Young may be re-elected, but it also seems plausible that the seat will revert to its historical trend and go back to the CLP.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Ian Sloan | Country Liberal | 1,386 | 35.8 | -6.1 | 36.5 |
| Anthony Venes | Labor | 1,321 | 34.1 | -2.7 | 33.4 |
| Regina McCarthy | Territory Alliance | 708 | 18.3 | +18.3 | 17.9 |
| Will Kemp | Greens | 324 | 8.4 | +8.4 | 8.6 |
| Mick Denigan | Independent | 135 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 3.6 |
| Informal | 257 | 6.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Ian Sloan | Country Liberal | 1,984 | 51.2 | -0.5 | 51.9 |
| Anthony Venes | Labor | 1,890 | 48.8 | +0.5 | 48.1 |
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dheran Young | Labor | 1,629 | 45.2 | +11.1 |
| Kris Civitarese | Country Liberal | 1,227 | 34.0 | -1.7 |
| Rebecca Jennings | Independent | 545 | 15.1 | +15.1 |
| Wayne Connop | Independent | 203 | 5.6 | +5.6 |
| Informal | 177 | 4.7 |
2021 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dheran Young | Labor | 2,022 | 56.1 | +7.3 |
| Kris Civitarese | Country Liberal | 1,582 | 43.9 | -7.3 |
Booth breakdown
Two booths were used in Daly in 2020 and 2021: Berry Springs and Wagalt Beach. Both are at the northern end of the electorate.
The mobile voting teams are the largest share of the electorate: 37% of the vote in 2020 and almost 50% in 2021. Pre-poll was the next biggest, with 35.5% in 2020 and 26.4% in 2021.
The mobile voting teams leaned very strongly to Labor – 61.9% in 2020 and 71% in 2021. The pre-poll leaned strongly to the CLP – 62.5% in 2020 and 63.8% in 2021. Generally the CLP won Berry Springs and Labor won Wagalt Beach.
2020 booth breakdown
| Voter group | CLP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mobile | 38.1 | 1,486 | 37.4 |
| Pre-poll | 62.5 | 1,409 | 35.5 |
| Other votes | 57.1 | 637 | 16.0 |
| Berry Springs | 59.8 | 274 | 6.9 |
| Wagait Beach | 44.7 | 165 | 4.2 |
2021 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | CLP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mobile | 29.0 | 1,797 | 49.9 |
| Pre-poll | 63.8 | 951 | 26.4 |
| Other votes | 50.1 | 375 | 10.4 |
| Berry Springs | 61.6 | 297 | 8.2 |
| Wagait Beach | 45.1 | 184 | 5.1 |
Polling places surrounding Daly at the 2020 NT election
Does anyone know what was the main reason Labor gained Daly so easily at the by-election? Seemed odd to me.
Should be an interesting race this election and almost impossible to call imo.
PRP, I believe it was because the CLP candidate (Kris Civitarese) lived outside the electorate in far off Tennant Creek at that time compared to Labor’s candidate Dheran Young who was a local. As a result, Labor had more of a ‘home’ factor that the CLP couldn’t match. Previous CLP candidates Ian Sloan and Gary Higgins were locals and not nominating a local candidate cost the CLP the seat.
I’d guess the retiring mp prior to the by-election had a personal vote…. which explains the swing. Also didn’t the prev mp own a pub?
So then that issue still presents itself as a challenge for the CLP, having chosen the same candidate.
Im pretty sure the covid factor played into it as well
Apparently it was the CLP candidate not being a local, I think he was from the Barkly region. It had nothing to do with covid
Who knows, that is true although I read that the candidate has since moved into the district (not sure how long ago though). This is probably the same with Dave Sharma who was an outsider when he first ran for the seat of Wentworth at the 2018 by election but moved into the electorate by the time of the 2019 general election when he was successful.
Michael Gunner was still Chief Minister at the time too and he had an appeal across the Territory, especially during COVID (similar to Mark McGowan in WA and Peter Gutwein in Tasmania).
Also, Garry Higgins must’ve been really bloody popular here if he retained this in 2016 when it was already a marginal seat. Every other seat was swinging in double digits but Daly only mildly swung to Labor, and on primaries there were swings against both the CLP and Labor.
This is also an interesting seat since it takes in many rural towns like Adelaide River, Batchelor, Pine Creek and Wagait Beach but also many Indigenous communities like Nauiyu Nambiyu and Wadeye.
Can’t see this as a CLP gain – I live in the rural area and see the sitting MLA everywhere. Seems very well liked (although I generally keep to myself), lived out in Wadeye for years and lives in Wagait. Ticks too many boxes IMO against a recently arrived CLP candidate.
@top end Todd, has the CLP candidate moved into the area? Or was it only recently?
Candidate has moved into the Electorate I believe – probably not long after the by election, so in the last two years. The only time I have seen him is waving on the side of the road in the morning in the last couple of months. CLP would have been better served by picking a long term rural resident IMO.
Very strange they picked him again it seems
My guess is it is just harder and harder to get quality people to run for both sides of politics – so you take what you can get. But in this instance I think he got preselected 2 years ago which is even weirder. Maybe some internal party stitch up? seems unfair on local CLP supporters though
@Top End Todd perhaps it’s because he moved into the electorate?
Anyway I expect the CLP to regain this. Labor won it at a by-election when Michael Gunner was popular, and by-elections are essentially a message of approval or disapproval of a government.
@NP I’m interested to know why you think he’ll win it, when @todd end Todd lives in the electorate and has first hand knowledge of the area and the candidates and has indicated he doesn’t think it will be a CLP gain. You can’t always say it’s because Michael gunner was popular back then, Dheran young lived in Wadeye for 4 years and has connections to the area which could have been a factor at the time
@Whoknows because:
1. By-elections are not the same as general elections. I’ll note that the government has changed since then but I’m trying not to mention Michael Gunner being popular upon your request even though it’s a completely valid reason (look at WA under Mark McGowan or Tasmania under Peter Gutwein or even NSW under Gladys Berejiklian).
2. The Territory is swinging to the CLP and the CLP are predicted to win this election.
3. While the demographics of this seat are mixed I think the rural areas should be enough for the CLP to win even if Dheran Young has a personal vote in Wadeye.
4. The only other Labor member for Daly was Rob Knight who won the seat in 2005 when Labor won in a landslide, held it in 2008 and then lost it in 2012 when the CLP won a handful of remote seats to get them a majority government.
Whether someone agrees or not is a different question. People have different opinions and predict elections differently. And predictions aren’t always correct. If he wants to vote Labor he can, and if he wants to vote CLP he can. Everyone is entitled to vote for whoever the hell they want.
I feel as though all of your predictions or opinions are CLP.
I would be interested to know your thoughts @top end Todd since you’re in the electorate and might know what people think
@Whoknows nope look at my predictions for several Darwin seats. The election will be tight, but I think the regions will be won by the CLP while Labor will still do well in Darwin. But it’s the Territory, anything can happen.
This seat used to be called Victoria River. It is a classic marginal tempered by loyalty to a respected local mp. The question is whether the current mp has built up loyalty if so he will retain
My read as someone who lives out here is people want to vote for someone they know and will work hard. The last CLP member (although decent guy) quit after a year and barely left the pub he owns during that time. We voted for him, myself included, because we knew him. I don’t know the CLP candidate and I know Dheran. I stopped voting for parties a long time ago – I pick the person that will work for the area. I can’t speak for all of the rural area but I have seen more of Dheran than I did Garry Higgins or Ian Sloan. But NP is right, anything can happen in the Territory.
@Top End Todd exactly. For all we know Gwoja might swing 30% to the CLP because remote areas can at time swing violently to either side, with it seeming to be more to the right these days (look at federal results for Grey, Leichhardt, Lingiari and Parkes where the Aboriginal towns swung heavily to the Coalition for reasons we don’t really know why, but also some of these towns voted No in the Voice referendum too).
This seat seems to like local members, why is this? This was marginal after 2012 yet the CLP held on in 2016, and now the reverse has happened in 2024, Labor holds on after the previous election result (from the by-election) the swing seems muted against incumbent MP’s here which is very strange.
@Daniel T well Daly is quite a mixed seat with many rural towns in it like Batchelor and Adelaide River as well as Aboriginal communities like Wadeye.
daly is back in the in doubt colum with youngs lead trimmed back to 174 votes