ALP 16.0%
Incumbent MP
Lauren Moss, since 2014.
Geography
Northern Darwin. Casuarina covers suburbs in the outer north-west of Darwin, including Brinkin, Tiwi, Casuarina, Nakara, Lyons, Lee Point and part of Muirhead.
Redistribution
Casuarina shifted slightly north-west, losing the remainder of Alawa to Johnston and gaining part of Muirhead from Wanguri.
The electorate of Casuarina has existed since the first NT assembly election in 1974. The CLP held the seat until 2001, and Labor have held it ever since.
The CLP’s Nick Dondas won Casuarina in 1974 and held the seat until 1994. He later represented the Northern Territory in the House of Representatives from 1996 until 1998.
Peter Adamson won Casuarina in 1994, beating future Labor chief minister Clare Martin.
Adamson lost Casuarina in 2001 to Labor’s Kon Vatskalis. Adamson later served as Lord Mayor of Darwin from 2002 to 2008.
Vatskalis was immediately appointed to the ministry, serving in the ministry until the government’s defeat in 2012.
Vatskalis resigned from parliament in 2014, and the subsequent by-election was won by Labor candidate Lauren Moss. Moss has been re-elected twice, and has served as a minister since 2016.
- Khoda Patel (Country Liberal)
- Martin Jackson (Independent)
- Lauren Moss (Labor)
- Res McCalman (Greens)
Assessment
Casuarina is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Lauren Moss | Labor | 2,307 | 50.1 | -11.0 | 51.5 |
| Tony Schelling | Country Liberal | 1,012 | 22.0 | -16.3 | 22.5 |
| Danial Kelly | Territory Alliance | 730 | 15.9 | +15.9 | 15.4 |
| Kendall Trudgen | Greens | 552 | 12.0 | +11.6 | 10.6 |
| Informal | 117 | 2.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Lauren Moss | Labor | 3,035 | 66.0 | +4.4 | 66.0 |
| Tony Schelling | Country Liberal | 1,566 | 34.0 | -4.4 | 34.0 |
Booth breakdown
There were three ordinary booths in Casuarina in 2020.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three, ranging from 66.3% in Leanyer and 71.9% in Casuarina City.
Over 60% of the vote was cast at pre-poll booths, and Labor polled 65.2% of the two-party-preferred vote there.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 65.2 | 2,928 | 62.1 |
| Other votes | 63.7 | 817 | 17.3 |
| Tiwi | 70.8 | 537 | 11.4 |
| Casuarina City | 71.9 | 331 | 7.0 |
| Leanyer | 66.3 | 100 | 2.1 |
Polling places surrounding Casuarina at the 2020 NT election
I suspect Casuarina is slightly inflated for Labor and could be subjected to an above-average swing to the CLP, but not enough to turf out Lauren Moss.
Labor retain, reasonably big swing to CLP though.
The CLP HTV card has, like in Braitling, encouraged a donkey vote. A coincidence that seems to only happen in the Territory.
The candidate order is CLP, independent, Labor, Greens.
Probable lib win
I didn’t see these large swings coming but now that I think about 20% is 9nly about 1200 votes so I suppose it’s not surprising
The results in the northern suburbs begs the question on how on earth has Labor collapsed so badly there? Most seats in the northern suburbs had such big margins, yet now Sanderson, Wanguri, Karama, and most likely Casuarina are gone. Any thoughts?
I will add, I did predict Karama would fall as the margin was a lot smaller, plus the CLP’s ‘tough on crime’ narrative would appeal to voters as Karama is considered low-income and has a lot of crime.
@James crime probably was the reason.