CLP 1.3%
Incumbent MP
Joshua Burgoyne, since 2020.
Geography
Alice Springs. Braitling covers the northern suburbs of Alice Springs, including Braitling, Ciccone, Eastside and parts of central Alice Springs and Sadadeen.
History
The electorate of Braitling has existed since 1983. Braitling has been dominated by the Country Liberal Party, with the exception of an independent who held the seat for two terms, and one term held by Labor.
The CLP’s Roger Vale won Braitling in 1983. Vale had held the seat of Stuart since 1974. He held Braitling until his retirement in 1994.
Vale was succeeded in Braitling by Loraine Braham, also of the CLP. Braham was re-elected in 1997, and then served as Speaker from 1997 to 1999, and then as a minister until 2000. She was denied CLP preselection for the 2001 election, which led to Braham winning Braitling as an independent.
Braham again served as Speaker from 2001 to 2005, and was re-elected as an independent in 2005.
Braham retired in 2008, and Braitling was won by Country Liberal candidate Adam Giles.
Giles was re-elected in 2012, and was appointed as a minister in the CLP government. He became CLP leader and chief minister in 2013 after a party room ballot.
Giles shockingly lost his seat at the 2016 election, as his government was defeated in a landslide. He lost Braitling to Labor’s Dale Wakefield, who gained a swing of almost 20% after preferences.
Wakefield held Braitling for just one term, losing in 2020 to Country Liberal candidate Joshua Burgoyne.
Assessment
Braitling is very marginal, but it seems likely that Burgoyne will strengthen his hold on the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joshua Burgoyne | Country Liberal | 1,548 | 35.2 | -4.3 |
| Dale Wakefield | Labor | 993 | 22.6 | -11.2 |
| Kim Hopper | Independent | 648 | 14.7 | +14.7 |
| Dale Mciver | Territory Alliance | 488 | 11.1 | +11.1 |
| Chris Tomlins | Greens | 379 | 8.6 | -2.3 |
| Scott Mcconnell | Independent | 199 | 4.5 | +4.5 |
| Marli Banks | Federation | 140 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Informal | 137 | 3.0 |
2020 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joshua Burgoyne | Country Liberal | 2,254 | 51.3 | +4.3 |
| Dale Wakefield | Labor | 2,141 | 48.7 | -4.3 |
Booth breakdown
There were three ordinary polling places in Braitling in 2020.
The CLP won 55.4% in Braitling, while Labor won Sadadeen with 57.3% and Alice Springs with 59.7%.
More than half of all votes were cast at pre-poll booths, and those voters favoured the CLP with 53.8%.
| Voter group | CLP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 53.8 | 2,603 | 57.4 |
| Other votes | 49.1 | 606 | 13.4 |
| Braitling | 55.4 | 525 | 11.6 |
| Sadadeen | 42.7 | 506 | 11.2 |
| Alice Springs | 40.3 | 292 | 6.4 |
Polling places surrounding Braitling at the 2020 NT election
@Drake that’s true. Oxley would be more socially conservative than this.
Okay, yeah don’t put too much stock on my knowledge of State NSW Oxley, Qld Glass House or NSW Lismore.
I think in the future Oxley could be Nationals vs Greens again with the Nationals easily winning because there are some hippie towns there like Bellingen and Elands but they are surrounded by very conservative-voting towns. The main towns in Oxley are Kempsey, Nambucca Heads and Wauchope. Kempsey has a very high Aboriginal population and Nambucca and Wauchope also do.
I thought the Greens would come in 2nd here, but didn’t expect them to get near 40% of the vote. Could end up being their highest ever vote in a single member seat outside of a capital city. The current 29.9% is the biggest swing they’ve gotten in a seat before.
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but at 53.6% Lib TPP, this is surely the first time Braitling has voted to the left of the NT? Makes me wonder if the Greens run Asta Hill again, whether this could be competitive in 2028. The Greens have very much positioned themselves here as the ‘left’ party. Lots of Labor voters tactically voted for them.
@Drake this is the first time the CLP TPP in Braitling (or any seat located entirely within Alice Springs) has been lower than the territorywide CLP TPP.
The Greens might finish second in Namatjira too but it won’t be anywhere near as close.
NSW 2011, Qld 2012, WA 2013 and NT 2024 have something in common: they were all elections where Labor got thumped, three of them with a Labor govt getting thrown out. Not surprising to see the Greens overtake Labor in safe conservative seats, although it is surprising watching them get close to winning the seat. Another one for the list could be Warren-Blackwood (WA 2013): the Greens didn’t make the 2cp (Nat vs Lib), but did finish ahead of Labor thanks to the seat having every hippy town in the south-west, similar to those northern NSW seats in 2011.
Kimberley in 2013 had a strong Green result because of the proposed James Price Point gas plant, specifically in Broome. In 2017 the gas plant was no longer an issue, so the Green vote went back to normal. Upper Hunter (NSW 2015) had a big swing to Labor for a similar reason, although that seat has stayed marginal.
@Bird of Paradox all the electorates where they finished second either had big unis or had hippie towns and particularly low Labor votes. Oxley has hippie towns like Bellingen and Elands but everywhere else is conservative. Ballina and Lismore have heaps of hippie towns but also conservative towns.
I think this is the best electorate-wide result for the Greens outside the capital cities at a general election (since winning the Cunningham by-election in 2002 doesn’t count).
The Greens don’t crack the 2PP on the NSW north coast or Northern Rivers as they are countered by strong Nationals areas like Tweed Heads, Grafton and Casino. Lismore and Armidale are more Green leaning though. In such areas, Labor gets more votes than the Greens. Greens are often left with primaries below 15%.
@Votante what about Ballina?
It is a big vote though for the Greens but most of it comes from Charles Sturt University. I can see this being a CLP vs Greens seat in the future but the question is how long can the Greens remain on such a high vote? Will Labor going back to being Labor help them here? What I mean is Labor tried to become the CLP but failed miserably, so many Labor voters in Braitling, Fannie Bay and Nightcliff went to the Greens since they had big campaigns there with lots of money put into the campaigns there.
2011.. nsw was a once in a lifetime election.. 65% lcp vote which will.not be repeated. 2012 qld is similar to.qld 1974 less severe for alp. Wa and nt will be repeated