ALP 0.8% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Selena Uibo, since 2016.
Geography
Top End. Arnhem covers a majority of Arnhem Land, stretching from Groot Eylandt and the eastern coast of the top end to the edge of Kakadu National Park, and south to the edge of Katherine.
Redistribution
Arnhem exchanged some territory with the seat of Mulka in the north-eastern corner of the electorate. These changes added a small number of votes from the independent seat of Mulka, cutting the Labor vs Independent margin in Arnhem from 1.6% to 0.8%.
The electorate of Arnhem was created in 1974 for the first Northern Territory assembly election. Labor held the seat continuously from 1977 until 2012.
Rupert Kentish won Arnhem in 1974 for the Country Liberal Party, holding the seat for one term.
Labor’s Bob Collins won Arnhem in 1977. He was elected Labor leader in 1981, and moved to the new seat of Arafura in 1983. Collins served as Labor leader until 1986. He resigned from Arafura in 1987 to run for the Senate. He served as a Senator for the Northern Territory until 1998.
Wes Lanhupuy succeeded Collins in Arnhem in 1983. He held the seat for twelve years until his death in 1995.
Labor’s Jack Ah Kit succeeded Lanhupuy in 1995. He held the seat until 2005, serving as a minister in the first Labor government after the 2001 election.
Labor’s Malarndirri McCarthy won Arnhem in 2005. She was re-elected in 2008 and became a minister after the 2008 election.
In 2012, McCarthy lost her seat to the CLP’s Larisa Lee. She returned to politics in 2016, elected to represent the Northern Territory in the Senate.
Lee resigned from the Country Liberal Party in 2014 to sit on the crossbench, mostly as an independent, although she briefly joined the Palmer United Party.
Arnhem was won in 2016 by Labor’s Selena Uibo, with Lee coming a distant fifth.
Uibo was re-elected in 2020.
- Selena Uibo (Labor)
- Ian Mongunu Gumbula (Country Liberal)
Assessment
Arnhem is a very marginal seat and could be under threat to a strong independent.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Selena Uibo | Labor | 1,207 | 41.3 | -8.6 | 41.2 |
| Ian Mongunu Gumbula | Independent | 987 | 33.8 | +33.8 | 31.6 |
| Jerry Amato | Country Liberal | 487 | 16.7 | -13.5 | 15.6 |
| Lance Lawrence | Independent | 243 | 8.3 | -2.6 | 7.8 |
| Others | 3.8 | ||||
| Informal | 232 | 7.4 |
2020 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist % |
| Selena Uibo | Labor | 1,508 | 51.6 | 50.8 |
| Ian Mongunu Gumbula | Independent | 1,416 | 48.4 | 49.2 |
Booth breakdown
There was only one ordinary polling place in Arnhem: a small booth on the border with Katherine. The ALP won 56% of the two-candidate-preferred vote there.
Almost two thirds of the vote was cast in mobile booths, with independents polling 50.6% in those mobile voting teams.
Labor won the pre-poll vote by a large margin.
| Voter group | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mobile | 49.4 | 2,214 | 65.9 |
| Other votes | 48.4 | 547 | 16.3 |
| Pre-poll | 58.6 | 522 | 15.6 |
| Tindal | 56.0 | 76 | 2.3 |
Polling places surrounding Arnhem at the 2020 NT election
Areweexpecting a nt federal redistribution post?
I haven’t seen yet, but has the Independent who ran last time announced his candidacy again – or any Independents yet? I suspect it’ll be a Labor retain, regardless.
@PRP if the independent runs again hell probably win
Gumbula running as CLP in 2024…
Ian Mongunu Gumbula, who nearly won the seat last time as an independent, is running as the CLP candidate.
@Oguh okay this is very interesting!
Could the CLP be trying to get the support of independents? Could Robyn Lambley return to the CLP, and could Yingiya Mark Guyula join them like Ian Mongunu Gumbula has? Will the CLP run in Mulka this time?
Alp hold as ind joined the lnp
@Mick Quinlivan CLP gain. They were only 1.6% away last time, and the swing should be bigger in remote areas like this.
I think this will be an interesting seat with the independent joining the CLP.
S cart.. that was the margin between alp and ind. Is by no way a lnp gain. Of preferences spray all over the place who knows. Lnp got only 16% of the vote last time
@Mick Quinlivan he may have a personal vote but I don’t know. This seat will be close.
@NP whilst I don’t think the CLP exactly want to get on the bad side of independents, I don’t think they’re exactly bringing them into the fold either. Gumbula ran as the CLP candidate in 2016, and putting the abortion issue aside Guyula is probably the most left-wing member of the assembly. I’d wager he’ll have many more disagreements with a CLP government than he does with Labor’s now. They’ll want to keep Lambley onside as she’s a conservative, but frankly I think they aren’t fielding a candidate in Araluen because they don’t think they can win it.
@Nether Portal if he got 34% of the vote as an independent then yes I imagine he would have a personal vote
What are Mark Guyula’s policies? I know he opposes abortion and is pro-Indigenous but where does he stand on other issues (economic, environmental and social)?
I think he gets a lot of personal vote from Yolŋu people who used to vote Labor or who would vote CLP up in and around Nhulunbuy and the Gove Peninsula. Not all of his voters will agree with all of his policies but last time you had him and Labor to choose from.
Guyula is generally left-wing. Falls on the left when it comes to key issues in the NT: indigenous issues, crime and fracking/environmental policy. Definitely an independent in the true sense of the word, but has been described as “the government’s conscience”. There’s a fairly detailed article on him here which I recommend reading. Politics aside the man has led an extremely interesting life.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine/yolngu-man-yingiya-guyula-could-transform-northern-territory-government-by-bridging-culture-and-politics/news-story/6c329eae86c7fa8a5554c2fbe2f036f4?amp
@Oguh interesting.
I did a bit of research and I’ve found out that on the social side he opposes abortion and has criticised online gambling.
He is a very good example of a local independent.
Imagine the lnp caucus room if he won… how long would he stay with the lnp?
Mick, are you referring to Gumbula (running in Arnhem) or Guyula (Member for Mulka)? There’s no indication that Guyula is joining the LNP.
Sorry my mistake I mixed up the 2 chaps. The candidate for Arnhem has joined the lnp and now is their candidate. Guyula remains an independent
When he Gumbala ran for CLP in 2016 he got 35.7% of the 2PP – in 2020 CLP polled 16% and directed prefs to Gumbala as an indie. Hard to see how this seat could be in play if it’s CLP vs Labor.
@Top End Todd combine the two maybe?
There are 16 days until the election.
Top end Todd, 2016 isn’t really a good data point because that was when the CLP was turfed out in a landslide defeat. I think Gumbala still has a good shot of winning as a CLP candidate, especially with his name recognition and perhaps more moderate leanings, in an environment which is favourable to the party overall.
Had gumbula run as an independent again he may have won
@John potentially yes.
The reason remote seats didn’t swing this time was because turnout was very low.
Aboriginal turnout in the Territory is in crisis. In some communities hardly anyone votes and nobody really gets fined for not voting. There needs to be a big campaign from the new CLP government to encourage more Aboriginal people to vote.
Agree NP and John, many of those living in remote communities are probably apathetic and are not keen on supporting either of the two major parties so they just reluctantly support the incumbent MP and/or party. Ian Gumbala as a more centrist or moderate candidate could have cut through as an independent, just like Yingiya Mark Guyula did for Mulka/Nhulumbuy when he beat a strong Labor incumbent (Lynne Walker).
Arnhem MP Selena Uibo has become NT Labor Leader, becoming the first Indigenous woman to lead a major political party in Australia.
Congrats
@James she will now be the second major party leader in history to be Indigenous. The only other was Adam Giles who was CLP leader and Chief Minister.