ALP 2.8%
Incumbent MP
Paul Kirby, since 2016.
Geography
Central Darwin. Port Darwin covers the Darwin city centre and Larrakeyah.
Redistribution
No change.
History
The electorate of Port Darwin has existed since 1974. The seat has been held by the Country Liberal Party for most of its history, although they lost here in 2016.
Independent candidate Ron Withnall won Port Darwin in 1974. Withnall was a former member of the Northern Territory Legislative Council. He sat in the Assembly for one term, losing to the CLP’s Tom Harris in 1977.
Harris held Port Darwin for thirteen years, serving as a minister from 1983 until he retired in 1990.
The Country Liberal Party’s Shane Stone won Port Darwin in 1990. Stone became chief minister in 1995, serving in that role until 1999, and leaving Parliament in 2000.
The CLP’s Sue Carter won Port Darwin at the 2000 by-election, and held the seat until 2005, when Labor’s Kerry Sacilotto narrowly won the seat in Labor’s landslide victory.
Sacilotto held Port Darwin for one term, losing in 2008 to the CLP’s John Elferink. Elferink had previously held the seat of MacDonnell, covering the southern end of the NT outback, from 1998 to 2005. Elferink had served as a shadow minister in the early 2000s, and returned to the frontbench in 2008.
Elferink was re-elected in 2012, and retired at the 2016 election.
Labor’s Paul Kirby won Port Darwin in 2016 with a 12.5% swing.
Candidates
- Toby George (Country Liberal)
- Timothy Parish (Greens)
- Gary Strachan (Territory Alliance)
- Paul Kirby (Labor)
- Leah Potter (Independent)
Assessment
Labor has only won Port Darwin twice, and both times it was by a slim margin. The CLP would be hoping to win this seat back.
2016 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Kirby | Labor | 1,496 | 38.4 | +5.4 |
| Rohan Kelly | Country Liberal | 1,412 | 36.3 | -19.3 |
| Matthew Baker | Independent | 498 | 12.8 | +12.8 |
| Carol Phayer | Independent | 313 | 8.0 | +8.0 |
| David Cameron | 1 Territory | 123 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Kenneth Wu | Independent | 52 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 82 | 2.1 |
2016 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Kirby | Labor | 1,875 | 52.8 | +12.5 |
| Rohan Kelly | Country Liberal | 1,676 | 47.2 | -12.5 |
Booth breakdown
There are two polling places in Port Darwin, but the biggest source of votes in 2016 was from pre-poll.
The ALP won pre-poll by a relatively small margin, and won Darwin City more comfortably. The CLP won in Larrakeyah.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 52.9 | 1,657 | 42.6 |
| Darwin City | 57.9 | 957 | 24.6 |
| Larrakeyah | 47.1 | 738 | 19.0 |
| Other votes | 51.0 | 542 | 13.9 |
I can’t see Labor holding on here. Both the CLP and Territory Alliance candidates are campaigning hard and historically the seat only falls to Labor on landslide elections.
I think the CLP will be the favourites to gain Port Darwin.
It will depend how preferences flow. Nobody knows what order the big 3 will preference each other in; there has been talk of CLP putting Labor over TA for example. The comparable situation in the 2018 SA election had both major parties preference each other over SA Best.
And in Port Darwin it could be a 4 party tug of war. Greens actually put in a decent showing in this area (~15% at both Darwin CBD and Larrakeyah) federally and are running the same candidate, and should be able to tear a few strips off the ALP vote from disappointed progressives. They will likely come last, but if it’s a similarly large chunk, it really isn’t clear whether Green voters will preference Labor or TA higher – one would think Labor but TA seem to be doing better on environmental issues and trying to avoid cultivating a traditionally “conservative” image. I expect it to mostly break even or lean ALP (though Green voters don’t reliably follow how to vote cards), but even that might be enough to put TA over CLP… and CLP voters DO reliably follow how to vote cards.
So with all of that, Labor could suffer a big swing and still retain the seat. HTVs will be crucial.
Probable CLP gain even if Labor wins a majority again, But i have always wondered why do city seats such as this. And even seats at the federal level like Curtin and Brisbane and even seats like Wentworth and North Sydney and some seats in Melbourne have a tendency to vote for Conservative parties? I have always wondered because typically cities are strong left-wing areas such as those in the USA where Democrats historically dominate and even in the UK except for a few suburbs in outer London and inner London that are fairly rich, Is it that seats like this are socially different? or is it because of migrants or something else? Looking at the map at first i thought this seat would be ALP heartland and considering it isn’t rural whatsoever
Daniel, the common thread between all the seats you mention is that they’re all high income areas. The USA is not so different in this regard (until recently at least). The key distinction in the USA is that most cities (or at least city centres) are deprived. Thus, you tend to have the rich (mainly white) folk living in suburban collar counties rather than the ‘city’ itself.
Not surprising the result so far. I know a few users had this going ALP barely but so far with 22% in 56% for the CLP on the TPP. Pre-polls could put it towards 58-42 realistically