IND 23.0% vs CLP
Incumbent MP
Gerry Wood, since 2001.
Geography
North-eastern fringe of Darwin. Nelson covers rural areas on the outskirts of both Darwin and Palmerston.
Redistribution
No change.
History
The electorate of Nelson has existed since 1990, and has been held by independent MPs for all but four years since then.
Noel Padgham-Purich won Nelson in 1990. She had sat in the assembly since 1977, representing Tiwi until 1983 and Koolpinyah from 1983 to 1990. Padgham-Purich was initially a member of the CLP, serving as a minister from 1983 to 1984. She lost preselection for Koolpinyah in 1987, and was re-elected as an independent.
Padgham-Purich held Nelson as an independent until her retirement in 1997.
Nelson was won in 1997 by the CLP’s Chris Lugg, who saw off a challenge from Padgham-Purich’s chosen independent successor Dave Tollner. Tollner went on to serve as member for Solomon in the federal Parliament from 2001 to 2007 and as member for Fong Lim in the NT Parliament from 2008 to 2016.
Lugg only held Nelson for one term, losing in 2001 to independent candidate Gerry Wood. Wood has held Nelson ever since, winning re-election four times.
Candidates
Sitting independent MP Gerry Wood is not running for re-election.
- Beverley Ratahi (Independent)
- Gerard Maley (Country Liberal)
- Steve Asher (Labor)
- Andy Harley (Territory Alliance)
Assessment
It’s hard to pick how this seat will go in the absence of Wood. He has endorsed Ratahi and the seat has a long history of being held by independents, but it can be hard for independents to pass the baton to a successor.
2016 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gerry Wood | Independent | 2,804 | 60.5 | +11.5 |
| Gerard Maley | Country Liberal | 1,029 | 22.2 | -18.7 |
| Kirsty Hunt | Labor | 510 | 11.0 | +1.9 |
| Marty Reinhold | Shooters and Fishers | 245 | 5.3 | +5.3 |
| Brigid Mccullough | Citizens Electoral Council | 47 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 61 | 1.3 |
2016 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gerry Wood | Independent | 3,209 | 73.0 | +17.5 |
| Gerard Maley | Country Liberal | 1,189 | 27.0 | -17.5 |
Booth breakdown
There were three booths in Nelson in 2016, but a majority of votes were cat at pre-poll.
Gerry Wood dominated the primary vote in the pre-poll and at Howard Springs and Girraween, but did not do as well at Berrimah.
| Voter group | ALP prim | CLP prim | IND prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 9.7 | 20.2 | 68.0 | 2,556 | 55.1 |
| Other votes | 17.5 | 26.3 | 47.4 | 841 | 18.1 |
| Howard Springs | 8.4 | 22.9 | 67.7 | 812 | 17.5 |
| Girraween | 10.9 | 20.1 | 68.3 | 293 | 6.3 |
| Berrimah | 12.0 | 35.3 | 47.6 | 133 | 2.9 |
Gerry Wood has endorsed Beverley Ratahi to replace him and I think that will be enough for her to be the next Member for Nelson.
Gerard Maley clearly has a considerable personal following in the seat, but with Labor and Territory Alliance preferences presumably flowing to Ratahi, one would think she should win this seat. Thoughts?
Yes agreed – because her opponents are splintered into 3 mutually hostile camps. Unless Ratahi totally tanks and comes in 3rd or 4th, TA would be the only one with any chance of beating her, as CLP and ALP will have guaranteed hostile preference flows. TA would have a better chance of getting preferences but need a good flow from the CLP, which looks doubtful after the Johnston fiasco.