Katherine – NT 2020

ALP 1.5%

Incumbent MP
Sandra Nelson, since 2016.

Geography
The seat of Katherine covers most of the Katherine council area, including the town of Katherine itself.

Redistribution
Katherine lost Tindall to Arafura. This change increased the Labor margin from 0.5% to 1.5%.

History
The electorate of Katherine has existed since 1987. The seat had always been held by the CLP up until the last election.

The first member for Katherine was Mike Reed, elected as the Country Liberal candidate in 1987. He held the seat all through the 1990s, serving as deputy chief minister from 1995 until the CLP’s election defeat in 2001. He resigned from Parliament in 2003.

The 2003 by-election was won by the CLP’s Fay Miller. She was re-elected in 2005, and retired at the 2008 election.

The CLP’s Willem Westra van Holthe has held Katherine since 2008. Westra van Holthe won a second term in 2012 and joined the ministry in the new Country Liberal government.

Westra van Holthe briefly served as deputy chief minister under Terry Mills in early 2013 after a failed leadership coup, but was replaced following a more successful leadership coup soon after.

In early 2015, Westra van Holthe successfully challenged for the leadership of the Country Liberal Party, which should have led to him becoming Chief Minister. Adam Giles refused to resign as chief minister, and a number of CLP members refused to support Westra van Holthe in the Parliament, leading to a risk of the government collapsing. Eventually the party agreed to support Giles with Westra van Holthe becoming deputy chief minister, a role he filled until the 2016 election.

van Holthe lost Katherine to Labor’s Sandra Nelson at the 2016 election, with a swing of over 22%.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Sandra Nelson is not running for re-election.

• Clinton Booth (Independent)
• Kate Ganley (Labor)
• Melanie Usher (Territory Alliance)
• Jo Hersey (Country Liberal)

Assessment
Katherine has traditionally been a very safe CLP seat. It seems unlikely that Labor will be able to hold on here. The retirement of the sitting MP and the current lack of a Labor candidate suggests they won’t be putting up a big effort to hold on.

If the Territory Alliance is in a strong position they could have a shot here, otherwise the seat will probably revert to the CLP, who will be eager to regain this key seat.

2016 result

2016 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
There were three ordinary polling places in Katherine before the redistribution. These booths only made up 26% of the total vote in 2016, while over 60% were cast at pre-poll.

One of those three booths (Tindal) has been moved into Arnhem, while the other two each make up just over 10% of the total redistributed vote. 65% of the vote came from the pre-poll.

Labor won a slim majority in the pre-poll vote and a slightly larger majority at the Katherine booth. The vote at Katherine East was tied between Labor and the CLP.

The CLP won a majority amongst other votes, which includes postal and absent votes.