Fannie Bay – NT 2020

ALP 12.5%

Incumbent MP
Michael Gunner, since 2008.

Geography
Central Darwin. Fannie Bay covers suburbs immediately to the northwest of the Darwin city centre, including Fannie Bay, the Gardens, Parap, East Point and Ludmilla.

Redistribution
Fannie Bay gained Ludmilla from Fong Lim, and lost the remainder of Coconut Grove to Johnston and Nightcliff. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 14.2% to 12.5%.

History
The electorate of Fannie Bay has existed since the first NT assembly election in 1974. The seat has tended to be safe for one party then change hands when the MP retired. The seat’s last three members have all led their party.

The CLP’s Grant Tambling won Fannie Bay in 1974, and lost the seat in 1977. He later served in the federal Parliament, first representing the Northern Territory in the House of Representatives from 1980 to 1983, and then served as a Senator for the Northern Territory from 1987 until 2001.

Labor’s Pam O’Neill won Fannie Bay off Tambling in 1977 and held the seat for two terms, losing in 1983. She later served as federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner from 1984 to 1988.

The CLP’s Marshall Perron won Fannie Bay in 1983. Perron had represented the neighbouring seat of Stuart Park since 1974, and had served as deputy chief minister since 1978. A redistribution had abolished Stuart Park, so Perron ran for Fannie Bay.

Perron held Fannie Bay until his retirement in 1995. He served as chief minister from 1988 until 1995.

Labor’s Clare Martin won Fannie Bay at the 1995 by-election. She became Labor leader in 1999 and led the party to victory in 2001, becoming the first Labor chief minister of the Northern Territory. Martin resigned as Chief Minister in late 2007 and retired from the assembly in 2008.

Labor’s Michael Gunner succeeded Martin in 2008. He was elected leader of the ALP in 2015, and led the party back into government in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Michael Gunner should retain his seat.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Gunner Labor 2,550 59.3 +11.1 56.5
Karen Brown Country Liberal 1,401 32.6 -8.2 33.7
Greg Strettles 1 Territory 351 8.2 +8.2 7.6
Others 2.2
Informal 95 2.2

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Gunner Labor 2,688 64.2 +7.8 62.5
Karen Brown Country Liberal 1,499 35.8 -7.8 37.5

Booth breakdown
Fannie Bay contains two polling booths, with Parap the largest single concentration of votes in the seat. Ludmilla was previously contained within Fong Lim.

Labor won over 60% of the two-party-preferred vote in every voter group.

Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Parap 62.1 1,583 39.1
Pre-poll 63.8 1,312 32.4
Other votes 61.5 843 20.8
Ludmilla 61.2 308 7.6

8 COMMENTS

  1. If this man had any dignity, He would have served the remainder of his parliamentary term like other former leaders. Following the path of Gladys,Turnbull,Bligh,Baird,Rudd,Keneally,Iemma,Brumby, and others in quitting during a parliamentary term is an insult to your constituents who elected you to be their representative , You are elected to parliament like every other member regardless of your position. an unnecessary by-election which will cost taxpayers millions.

    This is definitely in play because of the loss of Gunner (This was close in 2008 and 2012 IICR) and forcing an unnecessary by-election will hurt Labor here but it probably won’t be quite enough to flip this orange so a narrow ALP hold is probable.

  2. @Daniel thanks for the heads up! I completely missed this one! Corresponding article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-27/michael-gunner-expected-to-resign-from-politics/101274584

    I think @Daniel you can go back a little further to the 1995 Fannie Bay By-election for a historical comparison. Long-serving Chief Minister resigns and the seat produced a 9.2% swing against the Government at the By-election… leading to Clare Martin being elected. You were right 2008 was very close, almost the same margin as the ’95 By. Granted the current margin is 9.6% and it’s possible for CLP to flip, but with you on this one, for the moment, narrow ALP hold. Will be interesting to see how hard the CLP and also the GRN’s run. This seat had the 3rd best GRN result in 2020 but still a long way to getting a seat, but could start to have an impact.

  5. Looks like August 20 is the by-election date. Now that’s one quick turn around!
    Article on those updates: https://ntindependent.com.au/by-election-set-for-fannie-bay-to-replace-michael-gunner/
    Basically CLP will close their nominations this Sunday and ALP is yet to have a candidate confirmed. With such a short turnaround, I can see this being either a ALP-CLP or ALP-GRN-CLP contest as it’s hard for an independent to campaign at such short notice. Last election, there was an independent but only got 54 votes (1.2%).

  6. Agree with you David, I read that Michael Gunner was also having health issues with his cancer diagnosis and didn’t want to risk staying on. His original intention was only to step down as leader but circumstances probably changed to force his exit from parliament completely.

    Otherwise he would have quit as MP the same time as stepping down as leader, like Peter Gutwein of Tasmania.

Comments are closed.