Arnhem – NT 2020

ALP 10.7%

Incumbent MP
Selena Uibo, since 2016.

Geography
Top End. Arnhem covers a majority of Arnhem Land, stretching from Groot Eylandt and the eastern coast of the top end to the edge of Kakadu National Park, and south to the edge of Katherine.

Redistribution
Arnhem has shifted south, losing Jabiru to Arafura, and gaining the northern edge of Barkly. Arnhem also gained the Tindal RAAF base from Katherine. These changes cut the Labor margin from 14.3% to 10.7%.

History
The electorate of Arnhem was created in 1974 for the first Northern Territory assembly election. Labor held the seat continuously from 1977 until 2012.

Rupert Kentish won Arnhem in 1974 for the Country Liberal Party, holding the seat for one term.

Labor’s Bob Collins won Arnhem in 1977. He was elected Labor leader in 1981, and moved to the new seat of Arafura in 1983. Collins served as Labor leader until 1986. He resigned from Arafura in 1987 to run for the Senate. He served as a Senator for the Northern Territory until 1998.

Wes Lanhupuy succeeded Collins in Arnhem in 1983. He held the seat for twelve years until his death in 1995.

Labor’s Jack Ah Kit succeeded Lanhupuy in 1995. He held the seat until 2005, serving as a minister in the first Labor government after the 2001 election.

Labor’s Malarndirri McCarthy won Arnhem in 2005. She was re-elected in 2008 and became a minister after the 2008 election.

In 2012, McCarthy lost her seat to the CLP’s Larisa Lee. She returned to politics in 2016, elected to represent the Northern Territory in the Senate.

Lee resigned from the Country Liberal Party in 2014 to sit on the crossbench, mostly as an independent, although she briefly joined the Palmer United Party.

Arnhem was won in 2016 by Labor’s Selena Uibo, with Lee coming a distant fifth.

Candidates

• Selena Uibo (Labor)
• Lance Lawrence (Independent)
• Jerry Amato (Country Liberal)
• Ian Mongunu Gumbula (Independent)

Assessment
Labor is the favourite here, although an independent won the neighbouring seat of Nhulunbuy in 2016 and the candidacy of a strong independent shouldn’t be discounted.

2016 result

2016 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
A majority of votes cast in Arnhem in 2016 were cast through mobile polling teams in remote communities. Labor won over 62% of the two-party-preferred vote amongst these voters.

Labor also polled 59% amongst the pre-poll vote, and 65% at the Alyangula booth. There is also a small booth at Tindal in the Katherine area which has just been added to the seat, and the CLP won 55% of the two-party-preferred vote there.