Arafura – NT 2020

ALP 7.1%

Incumbent MP
Lawrence Costa, since 2016.

Geography
Top End. Arafura covers the Tiwi Islands, the Coburg peninsula and western Arnhem Land, including Gunbalanya and Maningrida.

Redistribution
Arafura shifted west, gaining Jabiru and parts of the Kakadu National Park from Arnhem. These changes increase the Labor margin from 4.7% to 7.1%.

History
The electorate of Arafura was created in 1983, and for most of its history the seat has been held by Labor MPs.

Bob Collins won Arafura for Labor in 1983. Collins had first won the seat of Arnhem in 1977, and was elected leader of the territory Labor Party in 1981. Collins served as Labor leader until 1986. He resigned from Arafura in 1987 to run for the Senate. He served as a Senator for the Northern Territory until 1998.

Labor’s Stan Tipiloura won Arafura at the 1987 election. He was re-elected in 1990, but suffered from kidney failure and died in office in 1992, aged 35.

Former VFL footballer Maurice Rioli won Arafura for Labor in 1992, and held the seat until his retirement in 2001.

Labor candidate Marion Scrymgour won Arafura in 2001. Scrymgour was appointed as a minister in the Labor government in 2003. She became Deputy Chief Minister in 2007, following the retirement of chief minister Clare Martin and the transition to Paul Henderson’s leadership.

Scrymgour resigned her ministries and moved to the backbench in February 2009, and in June 2009 she resigned from Labor to sit as an independent. This left Labor as a minority government. Scrymgour’s time on the crossbench was short. She returned to Labor in August 2009 after another Labor MP, Alison Anderson, also resigned from the party. Scrymgour retired in 2012.

Labor narrowly lost Arafura to the Country Liberal Party for the first time in 2012, with CLP candidate Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu winning the seat.

Kurrupuwu resigned from the CLP in 2014, and shortly after joined the Palmer United Party along with two colleagues. Kurrupuwu and his colleagues did not stay in PUP for very long – later that year, Kurrupuwu returned to the CLP and his two colleagues again became independents.

Kurrupuwu ran again for the CLP in 2016, but lost to Labor’s Lawrence Costa amidst a swing of over 7%.

Candidates

Assessment
In the absence of a strong third party or independent challenge, this seat will probably stay with Labor.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Lawrence Costa Labor 1,087 46.3 +11.7 49.1
Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu Country Liberal 903 38.4 -5.5 36.5
Jon Lotu 1 Territory 284 12.1 +12.1 11.6
Tristan Mungatopi Independent 75 3.2 +3.2 2.8
34 1.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Lawrence Costa Labor 1,234 54.7 +7.2 57.1
Francis Xavier Kurrupuwu Country Liberal 1,020 45.3 -7.2 42.9

Booth breakdown
Arafura contains two polling places, but a majority of the vote were cast through mobile teams in remote communities.

Labor won a large 64% majority in the mobile vote, while the CLP won over 60% in Wurrumiyanga, the main election-day booth. Jabiru, the other booth, was very strong for Labor, with a 79% majority.

Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Mobile 63.6 1,485 54.9
Wurrumiyanga 39.9 709 26.2
Other votes 49.8 248 9.2
Jabiru 79.4 162 6.0
Pre-poll 67.3 101 3.7

13 COMMENTS

  2. Condolences to the sitting member and his family.

    CLP won’t win here despite being on a 3% margin. I think seats where MP’s die in office, the swing in those following by-elections tend to be smaller than the ones where the sitting member resigned.

    The CLP is much like the Victorian Liberals, Unfit for office. The only respectable CLP figure is Jacinta Price.

    Labor hold, Negligible swing

  3. @ daniel T i dunno you said negligle swing at the lingiari election and they almost won that granted they were up against a recycled labor member

  4. also the clp got a7% swing in fannie bay last year in a solid labor electorate. lingiari as to whcih this apart of suffered a similar swing that alomost sawit go to the clp. id say tossup. either way since they still have 13 seats this wont effect the balance of power or govt and why would they want to? the general election is next year and they are on track to win im willing to say clp swing of 4-5% and clp gain restoring their 8th seat they lost at the daly by election

  6. Maybe because this is only a minor by-election. Even Anthony Green who usually offers election coverage has no guide or webpage for this by-election.

  7. In response to Ben above, I wouldn’t call Fannie Bay a solid Labor seat. It was originally held by former CLP Chief Minister Marshall Perron and was marginal when Michael Gunner first won it in 2008. It only appears safe because the Labor MP’s (first Claire Martin and then Michael Gunner) who have occupied the seat built up a personal vote over time.

  8. @Yoh yes but isnt now and they got 7% swing in a safe labor seat. i reckon this will be close but agree it may change. saturdays election will be interesting as it will give us a good look at what may happen in next years election especially since the redistribution is under way

  10. Labor might just lose this only because of the history of the Labor candidate with his car crash incident when he was 26.

  11. @daniel t and because labor have been on the way out for a while. labor barely held on in 2020 during a pandemic when they could blame all their problems on it now that the wuhan flu is gone they have noone to blame people will see that this will be a litmus test for next years elections

  13. Well that was a landslide lol.

    CLP leader should stand down, most territorians do not want her as chief minister.

    By elections are supposed to produce swings AGAINST the government and the CLP have failed this test twice in this parliamentary term. Daly and here.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here