Winston Hills – NSW 2023

This electorate is where the two Sydneys meet the leafy hilly north and working class west along the flat Cumberland Plain. This is the federal electorate of Parramatta in miniature also similar to the Victorian state electorate of Mulgrave. Here we can see the big social divide along Vardys Road.

I’d still back Mark Taylor to win this seat. There is some pretty solid Labor territory in the seat but the sheer strength around what used to be the very south end of the old Hills Shire Council is so Blue Ribbon, I can’t see it being chased down.

He will lose some margin but this seat is starting to shape as the tipping point of Labor only winning this seat when they will definitely form a majority.

I’d view this seat as a bellwether. My best guess it will be <1% either way, though I would say that Mr. Taylor would have a small advantage at this point in time.

At the federal election, Michelle Rowland in Greenway (Kings Langley and Glenwood) scored around 60% of the 2PP, following double-digit swings in the most blue parts of Winston Hills. Meanwhile, Chris Minns is campaigning hard on motorway tolls (crucial since there’s a lot of M7 and M2 drivers here).

The state result would be pretty close and may be a bellwether. If Labor loses here, it would be really hard for them to win government.

I expect most of the swings to the ALP will be in mortgage belt regions such as this, considering the cost of living problems going on in these areas. I agree that aggressively focusing on the toll issue is an excellent electoral strategy on the part of the ALP, as it can only help them gain ground in rightward trending seats, especially on the major motorways, such as here or in East Hills on the M5 (which I view as an relatively easy ALP gain).
However, the size of the swing is key here. This election, I feel, will determine if the Liberal Party have established themselves as the dominant political force in these middle class seats. I view Penrith & East Hills as easy gains. Mark Taylor seems to have done an alright job as MP though, which could help him. Same with Geoff Lee. Kevin Connolly I don’t know much about, although I have heard he is an established figure in the area which may or may not help him. Whatever the case, these three contests will most likely determine if Labor gets a majority or not.

I think one reason why the NSW Libs were able to do well there was due to their policy not following political ideologies to the same extent in contrast to other states. This makes NSW Libs more centrist than the Federal Libs or for example Vic Libs.
You are correct to say that the current NSW Labor leader seems to be very pragmatic in their campaigns and policies focusing on the more suburban issues. That might be because NSW Labor tends to be controlled by more conservative factions similar to SA Labor but different from Vic Labor where the Progressive faction has had a stronger hold since the 2010s.

Mark Taylor doesn’t even live in the electorate. He lives in Rouse Hill.

Sameer Pandey running for Labor is significant as he is a local of considerable stature, especially in the Indian community, much like Immanuel Selvaraj who contested Mitchell in fed’22, except Pandey is of the Right faction rather than the Left. If Pandey loses he will probably end up deputy lord mayor of Parramatta.

Calc opv bonus
Left 48.3 right 53.7 opv approx 2% this is a slightly mere liberal version of the old Toongabbie. 5.4 % 2pp is at the tipping point of 5 to 6%. It appears unlikely that Labor can outpoll the liberals on primary votes. But the green preferences can be directed so basically line ball. I think it will come down to the polit

Political environment . A swing to Labor and the quality of the candidates. Another seat the libs can not be certain of.. if the sitting mp decides to retire advantage labor

more liberal

Simply picking a South Asian candidate in an area with a large South Asian community is no guarantee of competitiveness, let alone victory. Selvaraj didn’t come close to winning Mitchell, nor did the Liberal candidate in Tarneit in the recent Vic election.

No alp candidate would win Mitchell think there was a 9% swing there to Labor. liberal party will hold the 2 state seats which are in Mitchell till he’ll freezes over. This is a liberal learning Marginal which has a reasonable chance of being won by labor

Labor’s biggest issue in this seat since the re-distribution has been the quality of candidates here, starting off with Susai Benjamin, whose presence ensured that Mark Taylor would be untouchable for at least 2 terms. The margin being dealt with here is still feeling some impacts from that campaign.

Sameer Pandey will be a better candidate to run for Labor but, with Taylor well entrenched in the seat, I’m still calling Taylor as slight favourite. However, this seat should now be seen as the seat that is the tipping point for Labor forming majority government.

Wilson, I don’t think I ever suggested that, I said it was significant.

Must win for alp

Another seat with an incumbent that is holding up well. The changing seats in this election are definitely those with retiring members. Predict Liberal hold.

has cris minns campaigned here samere pandey seenms to have a low profile

how will this seat turn out mark tayler is sceen as a good mp but labors candadate is deputy lord mayor of paramatter and if he does not get up but davis does could become local mayor

Lots and lots of Pandey corflutes in the Wenty area.

is pandy a strong candadate he is a paramatter sity cowncilor but dont know if minns viseted the seat yet part of the seat is labor leaning like wentworthvill

is pandy a hi profile candadate he is a paramatter cowncilor

pandy seems to have a lot of flyers arround sevin hills which is in riverstone not many for mark tayler most of this seat is labor friendly the reasonlibs won was a terible labor candadate in 2015

Line ball or toss up. Labor is within striking distance but no guarantees. According to the ABC, if federal swings of 2022 were replicated, Winston Hills would be a Labor gain, but the times and candidates were different. Labor overperformed in Greenway but I am not sure if it will happen again.

@Aaron Yes, Sameer Pandey is the Deputy Lord Mayor of Parramatta. The Lord Mayor is also running, albeit in the next-door seat of Parramatta.

He might be competitive in the eastern part where he is the Deputy Lord Mayor and also where there’s a higher concentration of Indian migrants.

This will go to the wire and currently retains my position as the seat that is probably the Tipping Point for Labor to take Majority Government.

AE Forecasts – LIB 0.8%
SportsBet – $1.70 LIB
TAB – $1.60 LIB

Suggesting Mark Taylor has his nose slightly in front.

it seems labor could winn minns perottit has not viseted this seat it includes safe labor arias like sevin hills

I agree this is the seat that decides whether Labor gets a majority or minority govt (or if Labor gets to form govt if the Nats manage to win back seats from the SFF.)

Only bright spot for the Liberals. Why did they hold here? Makes no sense. Labor easily had this area during the Carr years. Toongabbie leaned Labor, and all the seats around this swung heavily to Labor, why not this?

Surprised to see Parramatta and Riverstone fall so decisively but not this.

@Daniel T

As for the comparison with Toongabbie, the boundaries of that district were much more favourable to Labor than Winston Hills is.

There wasn’t a hard swing in neighbouring Blacktown or Prospect, so maybe there’s something there. Parramatta and Riverstone have rapidly changing demographics. Not so here.

Agree Nicholas, Riverstone contains mostly new developments and housing estates so may have lots of younger voters or those who are considered recently arrived migrants/residents.

In contrast Winston Hills and the suburbs contained within it are more established so are expected to be more conservative leaning compared to Riverstone.

@Nicholas Winston Hills consists of established suburbs that don’t have the same infrastructure grievances like the housing estates in Riverstone or the newer developments around Paramatta/Olympic Park. There was a 22% swing in Wentworth Point, already exceeding the 19% in the federal election.

It’s interesting that the south-west corner in Lalor Park and Seven Hills appears to have swung significantly to the Liberals, in contrast to most of the rest of the seat, and probably saved the Liberals in the process. There’s a considerable socioeconomic divide between it and the north-west/north-east (which seem to have had the same general big swing to Labor in higher SES suburbs in north-western Sydney), but that doesn’t seem to fully explain the story as the south-east also swung to Labor.

Possibly has to do with the south-east of the seat having a significant number of younger professionals moving in by the proximity to Parramatta, while the south-west continues to be more typical of lower SES and lower education suburbs.

maybi sumeer pandey was not the right candadate he might be deputy lord mayor but has a very low profile going up against tayler who is a good member buy all acounts he could be next lord mayor