IND 15.5% vs NAT
Incumbent MP
Joe McGirr, since 2018.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Southwestern NSW. The seat covers all of the City of Wagga Wagga and Lockhart Shire, and the parts of Snowy Valleys council surrounding Tumut.
Redistribution
Wagga Wagga expanded very slightly, taking in a small area from Albury to the south of Batlow.
The seat of Wagga Wagga was first created in 1894. With the exception of the period 1904-1913 and 1920-1927, the seat has existed ever since. The seat has been held by the Liberal Party since 1957.
The seat was held by the Country Party from 1927 to 1941, when it was won by the ALP’s Eddie Graham. He served as a minister from 1944 until his death in 1957.
The Liberal Party’s Wal Fife won the 1957 by-election. He served as a minister from 1967 until 1975, when he resigned from Wagga Wagga to contest the federal seat of Farrer. He served as a federal minister from 1977 to 1983. He moved to the seat of Hume in 1984, and held the seat until his retirement in 1993.
The 1975 Wagga Wagga by-election was won by Joe Schipp. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1988 to 1993, and retired in 1999.
Wagga Wagga has been held since 1999 by Daryl Maguire. He won the seat as a Liberal MP in 1999. He resigned from the Liberal Party in July 2018 after admitting that he had sought payment over a property deal at an ICAC hearing.
The 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election was won by independent candidate Joe McGirr. McGirr was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Joe McGirr should have no trouble winning re-election in Wagga Wagga.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joe McGirr | Independent | 21,682 | 44.6 | +44.6 |
| Mackenna Powell | Nationals | 12,635 | 26.0 | +26.0 |
| Dan Hayes | Labor | 7,141 | 14.7 | -13.4 |
| Seb McDonagh | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 4,242 | 8.7 | +8.7 |
| Ray Goodlass | Greens | 1,346 | 2.8 | -2.2 |
| Colin Taggart | Conservatives | 843 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Matt Quade | Independent | 689 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Informal | 1,607 | 3.2 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joe McGirr | Independent | 26,869 | 65.5 | 0.0 |
| Mackenna Powell | Nationals | 14,169 | 34.5 | 0.0 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mackenna Powell | Nationals | 18,055 | 57.5 | -5.4 |
| Dan Hayes | Labor | 13,338 | 42.5 | +5.4 |
Booths in Wagga Wagga have been split into four parts. There are three local government areas in the electorate of Wagga Wagga. Polling places in Snowy Valleys (mainly the Tumut area) and Lockhart council areas have been grouped together. Those in the Wagga Wagga council area, which covers a large majority of the seat’s population, were split between those in the city itself (“Wagga Wagga”) and those in the surrounding rural areas (“Wagga Wagga Surrounds”).
Independent MP Joe McGirr won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 52.6% in Lockhart to over 67% in Tumut and Wagga Wagga.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.1% in Lockhart to 17.4% in Tumut.
| Voter group | ALP prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Wagga Wagga | 15.6 | 67.5 | 18,205 | 37.5 |
| Wagga Wagga Surrounds | 12.3 | 60.4 | 5,591 | 11.5 |
| Tumut | 17.4 | 67.2 | 3,213 | 6.6 |
| Lockhart | 11.1 | 52.6 | 1,498 | 3.1 |
| Pre-poll | 14.2 | 66.3 | 14,318 | 29.5 |
| Other votes | 14.8 | 64.0 | 5,753 | 11.8 |
Election results in Wagga Wagga at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Nationals), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Joe McGirr, the Nationals and Labor.
Unless Michael McCormack runs here (He could easily become state Nats leader and possibly deputy premier if he is successful considering his high profile) Then McGir should hold this until he retires.
I think this seat is probably the most connected to the scandals of Daryl Maguire, I think McGirr will hold for a while.
Have the Liberals finally agreed to step back from running here in favour of the Nationals or are they simply not bothering to nominate a candidate because they see it as pointless while the Independent is still around?
Joe McGirr will hold this. The Daryl Maguire scandals got more exposure and Gladys’s resignation only happened this term. I don’t get why the Liberals would run, instead of the Nationals, in an inland, regional seat, although Wagga Wagga itself is quite a big-ish town.
Julia Ham is the Liberal Party candidate.
https://regionriverina.com.au/julia-ham-to-contest-wagga-for-the-liberals-as-greens-ray-goodlass-launches-campaign/21278/
https://www.dailyadvertiser.com.au/story/8091523/liberal-party-announce-candidate-for-upcoming-state-election/
Liberal candidate now also as reported in the Telegraph.
will be interestin to watch to see if Joe can hold his margin
Easy hold for McGirr with both Liberals and Nats running. In a hung parliament I think he’d be pretty firmly in the LNP column (or at least more likely than the 3 ex shooters).