LIB 19.7% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Gabrielle Upton, since 2011.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Vaucluse covers most of Woollahra local government area and half of Waverley local government area. It covers the suburbs of Watsons Bay, Vaucluse, Dover Heights, Bondi Beach, Bellevue Hill, Double Bay, Darling Point and Point Piper, and parts of Edgecliff.
Redistribution
Vaucluse expanded slightly west, taking in part of Edgecliff from the seat of Sydney. This increased the Liberal margin against the Greens from 19.3% to 19.7%.
History
Vaucluse has existed since the 1927 election. In its history, it has always been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors.
The seat was first won in 1927 by Nationalist candidate William Foster. He held the seat until his death in 1936.
The seat was won at the 1936 Vaucluse by-election by independent UAP candidate Murray Robson. He soon joined the United Australia Party and held his seat for over two decades. He took a leave of absence to serve as a military officer during the Second World War, but continued to hold his seat.
Robson became leader of the NSW Liberal Party and Leader of the Opposition in 1954 as a compromise candidate after a tied ballot. He held the leadership for only thirteen months before he was replaced in 1955. He was re-elected in 1956, and then retired in 1957.
The 1957 Vaucluse by-election was won by Liberal candidate Geoffrey Cox. He was re-elected in 1959 and 1962, and held office until he committed suicide in his Parliament House office in 1964.
No by-election was held following Cox’s death, and Liberal candidate Keith Doyle won Vaucluse at the 1965 election. He held his seat until his retirement in 1978.
Rosemary Foot won Vaucluse for the Liberal Party in 1978. She served as deputy leader of the Liberal Party from 1983 to 1986, when she retired.
Ray Aston won the Vaucluse by-election in 1986, and was re-elected in 1988, but he died later that year.
The 1988 Vaucluse by-election was won by Michael Yabsley. He had been Liberal Member for Bligh from 1984 to 1988, when he was defeated by independent Clover Moore. Yabsley was immediately appointed to the ministry after winning the by-election. He stepped down from the ministry in 1992 and retired in 1994.
The 1994 Vaucluse by-election was won by Peter Debnam. He joined the Opposition frontbench in 1997. In 2005, he was elected Leader of the Opposition, and led the Liberal-National coalition into the 2007 election. He stepped down as leader following the 2007 election. He continued as a frontbencher until May 2008, when he resigned in protest at his party’s plan to support the ALP’s privatisation of the electricity industry.
Debnam retired in 2011, and Vaucluse was easily won by Liberal candidate Gabrielle Upton. Upton was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Gabrielle Upton is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Vaucluse is a very safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gabrielle Upton | Liberal | 26,397 | 57.4 | -8.2 | 57.4 |
| Megan McEwin | Greens | 6,494 | 14.1 | -4.4 | 13.7 |
| Lenore Kulakauskas | Labor | 5,881 | 12.8 | -0.4 | 12.6 |
| Mark Macsmith | Keep Sydney Open | 3,683 | 8.0 | +8.0 | 7.7 |
| Miriam Guttman-Jones | Independent | 2,284 | 5.0 | +5.0 | 4.8 |
| Deb Doyle | Animal Justice | 664 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.4 |
| Kay Dunne | Sustainable Australia | 620 | 1.3 | +1.4 | 1.4 |
| Others | 1.2 | ||||
| Informal | 856 | 1.8 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gabrielle Upton | Liberal | 28,260 | 69.3 | -3.6 | 69.7 |
| Megan McEwin | Greens | 12,506 | 30.7 | +3.6 | 30.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gabrielle Upton | Liberal | 28,616 | 70.6 | -4.7 | 70.9 |
| Lenore Kulakauskas | Labor | 11,927 | 29.4 | +4.7 | 29.1 |
Booths in Vaucluse have been split into three parts: Bondi in the south-east, Vaucluse in the north-east and Woollahra in the west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all three areas, ranging from 53.7% in Bondi to 75.6% in Vaucluse.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.6% in Vaucluse to 17.2% in Bondi.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Woollahra | 10.6 | 72.1 | 12,606 | 26.2 |
| Bondi | 17.2 | 53.7 | 9,355 | 19.5 |
| Vaucluse | 9.6 | 75.6 | 7,091 | 14.7 |
| Other votes | 12.6 | 69.6 | 9,845 | 20.5 |
| Pre-poll | 12.7 | 78.2 | 9,194 | 19.1 |
Election results in Vaucluse at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.
Probably the biggest teal target in NSW. That being said this strong Liberal territory.
A strong Independent like if Daisy Turnbull left the Liberals and ran as an Independent in this seat.
would win here.
Vaucluse has very little of Bondi in it . Mainly the very wealthy eastern suburbs such as its name. The Teal win in Wentworth included Paddington Bondi suburbs etc where they polled over 60 % 2cp..This seat I would expect to remain liberal unless they pick a horrible candidate.. say is Ms Deves interested?
I’d argue Coogee is a better teal target but only because a lot of the Wentworth booths included within Vaucluse’s boundaries were so strong for the Coalition. Spender’s best results were on the fringes of this division and neighbouring into Coogee.
At the end of the day, it really will still come down to the profile of the independent candidates themselves and where they decide to run. Affluent divisions are a safe bet because there is more likely to be well established individuals living in them. Ones which have the time, profile and resources to put together a campaign without major party machinery.
How many more fed up teal types are there out in the country? Honestly, probably a lot were inspired by the most recent election and we will be seeing a conga-line of them for a while.
I would expect teals to be strong contenders in most of the beach-side and harbour-side divisions except for the ones in Sutherland Shire which has established itself as the Coalition heartland of Sydney.
Perhaps we will see some “community independents” emerge in the west around Fairfield. And maybe even some strong independent showings in the regions.
Again it really comes down to the individual candidates that put their hands up and make it happen. I expect there to be an appetite for independents across many different communities following the independent momentum of the federal election.
Vaucluse will most likely stay Liberal as it has all the harbourside suburbs of Wentworth (e.g. Rose Bay, Vaucluse, Watsons Bay). They are much wealthier and staunchly Liberal. Teals or community independents may have a better run on the North Shore or Northern Beaches. I don’t think there’ll be a “teal wave” at the NSW election. There may be one or two wins at most.
The NSW Libs are a lot more socially progressive than the federal Libs despite having a leader from the hard right faction. Also, NSW has OPV which disadvantages the teals since they generally rely on preferences from Labor and the Greens to get them over the line.
I wonder if Perrotet’s Nazi uniform scandal will annoy the Jewish population of Vaucluse sufficiently to ditch the Liberals and make it a real contest.
Wilson, Perrottet’s so called ‘uniform’ scandal may not end up doing much damage. I see a comparison to Virginia, USA where then Lt Governor Ralph Northam suffered a scandal where he was caught wearing blackface during his early student days.
Then again, Northam’s scandal occurred well before a general election, so Perrottet’s story may cause more harm being exposed close to the election.
@Wilson @Yoh An
Personally, I would be shocked if Liberals are able to retain this seat after this scandal.
The Jewish community near Caulfield was serious enough to successfully fight the Macnamara/Higgins boundary change from the 1st draft of the 2021 redistribution to prevent the Greens winning (apparently on grounds with no historical examples no less). Surely the Jews would not be any less serious about this – I reckon enough to flip this seat. Even though it was 20 years ago, this is Nazis we are talking about.
On the same note, I doubt this scandal would break that badly anywhere else (rightly or not).
Note:
The Jewish leaders apparently still believe Perrottet is a staunch supporter of the Jewish community. Also, Jewish Federal MPs Julian Leeser (Berowra, Liberal) and Freelander (Macarthur, Labor) both think he deserves forgiveness. IDK if this is enough to save the Libs here.
Leon. Disagree I would consider it is the demographics of Double Bay.. Vaucluse. Darling point Rose Bay which make this a liberal seat and neither a Teal . Labor or independent could win here
@Mick Quinlivan
Okay makes sense. Also, on second check the Jewish population (in %) in this area while large is nowhere near that of Caulfield VIC so I guess it may not really be enough. I expect a decent swing off the back of this anyway.
Unlike the seat of Wentworth this seat has fewer progressive areas that could vote Teal/Labor it is really only the area Bondi which Labor wins the TPP. Fun Fact, Dover Heights is the most Jewish suburb in Australia around 50% more than Caulfield.
Sorry, I meant the State Seat as a whole. Not suburb. (Though i may still be wrong lol)
Leon, you are correct. i pointed out Dover Heights as it one of the few examples in Australia where a minority religion makes a Majority. In terms of comparing states seats yes Caulfield is 29.7% Jewish while Vaucluse is 19.8. In terms of suburbs, Caulfield North is the most Jewish in Victoria at 40.8% but if we go one level down to parts of suburbs then the Glen Eira part of St Kilda East is 56% Jewish and a clear majority. Coogee has the second highest % of Jews. The Jewish community does tend to be geographically concentrated for example Mosman, Kirribilli, Cremorne, Clontarf etc has very few despite being socially economically similar to this seat.
Mick Quinlivan with another hot take: “Labor… could win here”… mate really? Have you commented on the wrong seat by accident?
Assistant Minister, I believe Mick intended to use the phrase “Neither a teal, independent nor Labor could win here” which implies a Liberal win by default. I think the grammar and punctuation was slightly off which may have confused you.
I must have made a mistake in my wording. I intended today that neither Labor teals or any one else other than a liberal could won here
Alex Turnbull if he ran as an independent would win this seat.
I’m tipping a Liberal hold, like I did last July in this thread. There are hardly any teal areas outside of Bondi. We can write off the teal candidate. Most likely the Greens will come second, again, in the 2CP. The voters of Keep Sydney Open (8% PV in 2019), would mainly shift to the Greens.
Yes too much rusted on liberal area.. liberal retain…no areas such as Paddington where a teal could poll 60% plus
How many times have the Greens won a booth but because the Labor vote is so low they didn’t notionally win it? Obviously preference leakage and OPV in NSW helps but it’s still interesting because it’s rare.
We all know Bondi is a very teal suburb so it usually votes Liberal on first preferences but often at least in some booths Labor or the Greens win it on preferences. At the 2019 NSW state election in Vaucluse, the Greens won four Bondi booths, but Labor only won two of them. The ones that only narrowly voted Greens over the Liberals narrowly voted Liberal over Labor.
* Bondi Public School: 53.0% GRN v LIB, 51.9% LIB v ALP
* Bondi Surf Life Saving Club: 52.7% GRN v LIB, 50.8% LIB v ALP
For the 2011 state election the NSWEC doesn’t have any option to view notional contests or preference flows, so maybe Labor preferences went to the Nationals in 2011 there or perhaps Greens had massive preference leakage there (so maybe the Greens didn’t win these booths in 2011, which remember was a massive landslide for the Coalition against an extremely unpopular 20-year-old Labor government so the Coalition won a lot of booths they wouldn’t normally win), but the Greens got the most primary votes in most hippie towns but the Nationals won most of them against Labor.
* Byron Bay Public School (Ballina): 61.8% NAT
* Elands Public School (Oxley): 52.8% NAT
Note that in some booths like Byron Bay High School (Ballina) the Nationals got more votes than the Greens in 2011 so I didn’t include those.
At the 2014 Victorian state election the Greens very narrowly gained Prahran from the Liberals with 50.4% of the TCP vote. The Liberals still somehow managed to very narrowly win the notional TPP vote, but only by a bee’s dick (50.03%).
Can anyone think of any other examples?
Found another one. A small town in the seat of Lismore called The Channon voted Greens on first preferences in 2011 but the Nationals got 51.3% TPP against Labor.
I think some Ryan booths would also fit into this category, i.e the ones where the Greens barely won.