ALP 5.2%
Incumbent MP
David Mehan, since 2015.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Central Coast. The Entrance covers areas on the southern side of Lake Tuggerah, including the suburbs of The Entrance, Bateau Bay, Berkeley Vale, Killarney Vale, Tuggerah and Wyoming and parts of Narara and Berkeley Vale. The seat is contained entirely within the Central Coast council area, primarily in the former Wyong Shire.
Redistribution
The Entrance expanded slightly to take in Berkeley Vale from Wyong. This made no difference to the Labor margin.
History
The seat of The Entrance has existed since the 1988 election. Prior to that period, the area covered by The Entrance had been covered by the seats of Gosford, Wyong, Munmorah and Tuggerah.
It was won in 1988 by the Liberal Party’s Bob Graham, despite the seat having a notional Labor majority.
In 1991, Graham defeated the ALP’s Grant McBride by only 116 votes, and the result was thrown out by the Court of Disputed Returns in December 1991. The Liberal Party’s hold on power was fragile, relying on the support of independent Tony Windsor to hold a majority. Following the decision in The Entrance, the Liberal Party was required to come to an arrangement with other independents.
In the ensuing by-election, McBride won the seat off Graham, with a 4.7% margin.
McBride was re-elected in The Entrance at the 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections. He served as a minister in the Labor state government from 2003 to 2007.
McBride retired in 2011, and The Entrance was won by Liberal candidate Chris Spence, who benefited from a 17.3% swing.
Spence stood aside from the Liberal Party in early 2014 after accusations were made at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that he had taken donations from a prohibited donor. He did not run in 2015.
Labor’s David Mehan narrowly won The Entrance in 2015, and he was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Labor will probably hold on to The Entrance in current circumstances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Mehan | Labor | 20,744 | 43.1 | +1.3 | 43.1 |
| Brian Perrem | Liberal | 18,145 | 37.7 | -6.2 | 37.8 |
| Stephen Pearson | Greens | 3,691 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 7.9 |
| Maddy Richards | Animal Justice | 2,034 | 4.2 | +4.2 | 4.1 |
| Jake Fitzpatrick | Keep Sydney Open | 1,263 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 2.5 |
| Margaret Jones | Sustainable Australia | 1,218 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 2.4 |
| Hadden Ervin | Conservatives | 991 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.2 |
| Informal | 2,130 | 4.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Mehan | Labor | 23,661 | 55.2 | +4.8 | 55.2 |
| Brian Perrem | Liberal | 19,189 | 44.8 | -4.8 | 44.8 |
Booths in The Entrance were split into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three electorates, ranging from 55.9% in the centre to 56.2% in the east, which is very uniform.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 56.2 | 12,980 | 25.9 |
| West | 56.0 | 10,169 | 20.3 |
| Central | 55.9 | 7,783 | 15.5 |
| Pre-poll | 53.5 | 10,865 | 21.7 |
| Other votes | 53.9 | 8,261 | 16.5 |
Election results in The Entrance at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
If the Liberals gain any seat on the central coast or any seat they lost in 2015, it will either be this one or Port Stephens. Both are in tight federal seats, Paterson and Dobell which were both tight in 2019 and were gained in 2016 thanks to a redistribution.
If the coalition lose seats in Sydney then to win a majority they must take seats in different regions such as this. These sort of seats could very well be the sort of seats the coalition needs to win government in future if they start to lose more seats to Labor in Sydney, but needless to say Labor must hold these seats at this election because Labor practically needs to win every single marginal out there.
On the central coast. Labor will hold all their seats. Terrigal is a separate kettle of fish and is much more liberal inclined .I don’t know what the federal figures were in Terrigal but I suggest even that seat is not a done deal for the libs
Former Australian Cricketer Nathan Bracken will the Liberal candidate for the state seat of The Entrance. I have seen Bracken and Brett Lees named as potential candidates for the Liberals in the media in the past. From the outside looking in Bracken probably has chosen the wrong election to be successful if your judging by the state wide polling at the moment.
5% and a pro Labor swing no change
name recognition might get Bracken over the line. cricket supercedes politics. dont wite him off
The Liberals have listed this as a key seat in the leaks. Interesting for a seat that hasn’t been discussed much.
Hasn’t been much discussion of the seats Liberals would be hoping to pick up off Labor (notional) – Liberals appear to be targeting (or at least tracking). Leppington, Heathcote, Londonderry, Coogee, The Entrance and Bega of the ALP held seats. Interestingly they haven’t listed Kogarah but they did list Dom Perrottet’s own seat Epping as a Key Seat (not a “Safe Seat”). Note this is Libs, not Nats.
Source: https://twitter.com/george_simon/status/1638694212450541572
@john koogarah is too high profile now minns wont lose while in opposition after 1 term of a labor greens minority it will be up for grabs
Liberals are no chance here. Their listed at $10 on Sportsbet. I really doubt they would be at those odds if they were in the mix.
@political. im giving them an outside chance mainly because name recognition of Nathan Bracken might give him an edge. If they were running Brett Lee as you suggested they were sounding out Labor might as well have packed up their tents.
“giving them an outside chance mainly because name recognition of Nathan Bracken might give him an edge. If they were running Brett Lee as you suggested they were sounding out Labor might as well have packed up their tents.”
Brett Lee running Labor would have packed up their tents? I doubt it. I think you prediction is a good old case of Liberal cheerleading and exaggerating Lee celebrity status in terms of political support. I’m pretty certain Lee is not based in the seat either. I have seen some of your other predictions. And there is no way you would give Labor any chance if they were listed at $10 on Sportsbet. As I said previously Nathan Bracken has chosen the wrong election to run. Labor retain.
PN, although I would say being a high-profile candidate does have some impact. Former tennis star/professional Sam Groth when he ran as Liberal candidate for Nepean achieved a 5%+ swing in his favour, above the state average so it might be a possibility that Nathan Bracken keeps the contest competitive.
Then again, you are probably right that the conditions are different. Victoria had a general anti-Labor mood whereas NSW is the opposite with a pro-Labor swing expected.
The high profile of Nathan Brackan saw the swing against the liberals here limited to only 3.8% against the statewide 4.6%
All eyes are on Dunkley today but I thought I might point out that this is a key seat for the Liberals at the next state election. Of the seats Labor held in 2019 and still holds now, this is the most marginal despite being classed as fairly safe.