Tamworth – NSW 2023

NAT 20.2% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Kevin Anderson, since 2011.

Geography

Northern NSW. The seat of Tamworth covers Tamworth, Gunnedah and Quirindi and surrounding areas. The seat covers the entirety of the Gunnedah, Tamworth and Liverpool Plains council areas.

Redistribution
Tamworth lost the Walcha council area to Northern Tablelands and gained the remainder of the Liverpool Plains council area from Upper Hunter. This change reduced the Nationals two-party-preferred margin from 29.5% to 27.9%, and reduced the two-candidate-preferred margin from 21.1% to 20.2%.

History
The district of Tamworth was first created in 1880. It elected two members from 1880 to 1894. It has been a single-member district since 1894, although it was abolished for three elections in the 1920s. The seat has never been held by the ALP, or by the Liberal Party in its current form. The seat has been traditionally dominated by the Nationals, but in recent years has regularly elected independents.

Frank Chaffey won the seat as a Liberal candidate in 1913. He shifted to the multi-member district of Namoi in 1920, and returned to Tamworth in 1927. He held the seat until his death in 1940, serving as a member of the Nationalist party and the United Australia Party.

Frank Chaffey’s son Bill Chaffey won the seat at the 1940 by-election. He left the UAP in 1941, serving as an independent until he joined the Country Party in 1947.

The younger Chaffey was deputy leader of the Country Party from 1959 to 1968, serving as a minister from 1965 to 1968. He left the Country Party over political differences in 1972, serving as an independent until his retirement in 1973.

Tamworth was won in 1973 by Country Party candidate Noel Park. He held it until his retirement in 1991.

Tony Windsor ran for Nationals preselection in 1991, but resigned from the party after losing preselection, and defeated the official candidate.

The parliament elected in 1991 did not give a majority to either party, and Windsor supported a Liberal-National coalition government in minority until its defeat in 1995. He was re-elected in 1995 and 1999.

In 2001, Windsor resigned from Tamworth to contest the federal seat of New England. He won the seat and held it until his retirement in 2013.

The 2001 Tamworth by-election was won by National Party candidate John Cull. He defeated Tamworth mayor James Treloar, an independent endorsed by Windsor. Cull lost Tamworth in 2003 to independent candidate Peter Draper. Draper won re-election in 2007. Draper won with a 2.5% margin in 2003, which was increased to 4.8% in 2007.

In 2011, Draper lost to Nationals candidate Kevin Anderson with a 12.5% swing. Anderson was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.

Candidates

  • Ryan Brooke (Greens)
  • Rebecca McCredie (Informed Medical Options)
  • Sue Raye (Legalise Cannabis)
  • Mark Rodda (Independent)
  • Kevin Anderson (Nationals)
  • Colin Drain (Sustainable Australia)
  • Kate McGrath (Labor)
  • Matthew Scanlan (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Assessment
    Tamworth is a safe Nationals seat.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Kevin Anderson Nationals 27,855 55.1 0.0 53.3
    Jeff Bacon Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 8,180 16.2 +16.2 16.9
    Mark Rodda Independent 8,283 16.4 +16.4 15.7
    Steve Mears Labor 4,133 8.2 +2.4 9.2
    Robin Gunning Greens 1,367 2.7 +0.6 2.8
    Emma Hall Animal Justice 760 1.5 +1.5 1.6
    Others 0.5
    Informal 1,136 2.2

    2019 two-candidate-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Kevin Anderson Nationals 30,522 71.1 +11.1 70.2
    Mark Rodda Independent 12,403 28.9 -11.1 29.8

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Kevin Anderson Nationals 32,700 79.5 +0.5 77.9
    Steve Mears Labor 8,448 20.5 -0.5 22.1

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Tamworth have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Tamworth urban area have been grouped together, with the remainder split between north, south and west.

    The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the independent) in all four areas, ranging from 73.9% in Tamworth to 88.8% in the west.

    The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers came third (second after the redistribution) with a primary vote ranging from 13.9% in Tamworth to 22.8% in the south.

    Voter group SFF prim % NAT 2CP % Total votes % of votes
    Tamworth 13.9 73.9 15,178 29.1
    North 22.1 79.3 5,388 10.3
    South 22.8 78.0 4,090 7.8
    West 22.4 88.8 3,501 6.7
    Pre-poll 15.6 77.8 18,042 34.6
    Other votes 16.9 81.8 6,006 11.5

    Election results in Tamworth at the 2019 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, independent candidate Mark Rodda and Labor.

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