ALP 10.6%
Incumbent MP
Yasmin Catley, since 2015.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Swansea covers parts of the City of Lake Macquarie and the Central Coast council area on the eastern shore of Lake Macquarie, between the lake and the Pacific Ocean. The seat covers the suburbs of Belmont, Bluff Point, Budgewoi, Croudace Bay, Floraville, Halekulani, Lake Munmorah, Redhead, San Remo and Swansea.
Redistribution
Swansea expanded slightly at two ends, taking in Redhead from Charlestown and a small area near Mannering Lake from Lake Macquarie.
History
The seat of Swansea was first created for the 1981 election. With the exception of the 1988 election, when it was won by an independent, and the Liberal win in 2011, the seat has always been won by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1981 by Don Bowman of the ALP. In 1988, Bowman lost to the independent Ivan Welsh, Mayor of Lake Macquarie. Welsh held the seat for one term, losing again to Bowman in 1991.
Bowman retired in 1995, and was succeeded by Lake Macquarie councillor Jill Hall. Hall served less than one term in Swansea, resigning in 1998 to contest and win the federal seat of Shortland. She has held Shortland ever since, winning a fifth term in 2010.
Due to the impending state election, no by-election was held in Swansea in 1998. At the election in March 1999 the seat was won by Lake Macquarie councillor Milton Orkopoulos. Orkopoulos was re-elected, and was promoted to the ministry in 2005.
In 2006, Orkopoulos was charged with offenses related to child sex and drugs. He was immediately expelled from the ALP and removed as a minister. He resigned from Parliament in late 2006, close to the 2007 state election. Orkopoulos was later convicted and is currently serving a prison sentence.
Swansea was won in 2007 by Robert Coombs of the ALP. He held the seat for four years, and lost the seat in 2011 to Liberal candidate Garry Edwards.
Edwards resigned from the Liberal Party in 2014 after allegations at ICAC about a donation to Edwards from property developer Jeff McCloy. He has sat as an independent for the remainder of his term.
Edwards ran as an independent in 2015. He came third, with the seat falling to Labor candidate Yasmin Catley. Catley was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Swansea is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Yasmin Catley | Labor | 24,371 | 49.5 | +4.5 | 49.6 |
| Dean Bowman | Liberal | 16,123 | 32.8 | +6.9 | 32.9 |
| Doug Williamson | Greens | 3,428 | 7.0 | +1.1 | 7.2 |
| Julia Riseley | Animal Justice | 2,714 | 5.5 | +2.6 | 5.4 |
| Glenn Seddon | Conservatives | 2,556 | 5.2 | +5.2 | 4.9 |
| Informal | 2,224 | 4.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Yasmin Catley | Labor | 26,792 | 60.6 | -2.4 | 60.6 |
| Dean Bowman | Liberal | 17,449 | 39.4 | +2.4 | 39.4 |
Booths in Swansea have been split into three parts: central, north and south. Polling places in the Central Coast council area have been grouped together as “south” while those in the Lake Macquarie council area have been grouped as “central” and “north”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.7% in the north to 65.5% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 61.0 | 13,808 | 26.7 |
| North | 58.7 | 12,717 | 24.6 |
| Central | 65.5 | 7,128 | 13.8 |
| Pre-poll | 59.1 | 9,451 | 18.3 |
| Other votes | 60.5 | 8,535 | 16.5 |
Election results in Swansea at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Newcastle should be a focus area for the Liberals to create a new base, even with the current margins for Labor being so high that in 2023 they finished with over 50% of first preferences in every seat except Newcastle (they had over 49%) there and the independent-held seat of Lake Macquarie (Greg Piper won over 57% of first preferences there).
If the Liberals were to win a Newcastle-based seat, which would be the most likely? I’d say either this one (Swansea) or Port Stephens.
On the federal level, Shortland is still a marginal seat. Why hasn’t this played out on the state level?
@ Nether Portal
I actually made some comments on the Cessnock thread on Thursday (https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/nsw2023/cessnock2023)
I actually think it is less likely at a state level now as both parties have settled the climate issue at a state level. Labor has underperformed at a federal level in Shortland due to the climate issue which is not the case at a state level. Newcastle is a very left-wing city and Swansea working class. Swansea will not be won again until there is a 2011 style result. Port Stephens is demographically different and can be won again but i think that will be in a good year and when Kate Washington retires. Swansea always votes about 10% more Labor than the state level so it will need to a very strong Liberal win to even have a chance.
The NSW Libs out-performed their federal counterparts in parts of northern Sydney as well as parts within Greenway and Bennelong despite doing 3% worse in the statewide TPP
On the other hand they way underperformed the feds in the Hunter Valley and in western Sydney.
There’s pros to running a more moderate campaign like the NSW Libs, but it does potentially come with the downside of doing worse with working class voters.
@Nather Portal – in the 2011 Election the Liberal Party won most of the Newcastle seats including Newcastle. SO it is all possible. However, having lived in Newcastle, it is not just a port town, but also a University and Medical City, which tend to lead left in voting.
The State Libs also over performed the Federal Libs in Drummoynes as well. With state libs they underperformed in the Hunter Region i would say due to climate issue not being a wedge at a state level. However,, while they under performed in Western Sydney like Penrirth, Camden, Londonderry as well as the Sutherland Shire i feel that is for different reasons and not due to climate. I feel Chris Minns is a better fit than Albanese he is more a right-wing Labor leader, more religious etc and from the suburbs. Chris Minns appealed to such voters on the wage cap, road tolls and other bread and butter issues. Kevin Rudd appealed to such voters but Albanese did not do as well in Outer Western and Southern Sydney
I will speak from a local perspective here. It will be my first time voting in 2027 since I am currently 17. I live in the suburb of Croudace Bay which is in Swansea. I moved here from Portugal when I was a teenager and I speak Portuguese as my native language so I apologise if I mess up a word or two (my English is pretty good though).
Yasmin Catley has been a bad minister. The Sydney Morning Herald and Ray Hadley even called for her to resign. I don’t mind Minns but I prefer Speakman. I will be voting Liberal at the next state election. If I voted in 2023 I would have voted Liberal. This is not family bias, since my parents don’t know how to vote properly.
I think this seat will have a swing to the Liberals. I don’t think the Liberals will win this seat but there will be a swing. If the Liberals were to win a Newcastle seat I say Lake Macquarie, Maitland or Port Stephens is their best bet based on historical trends and just in general, but to win Lake Macquarie they would need Greg Piper to resign because his margin is too big to overturn.
That’s just my thoughts though.
@João Paulo interesting insights.
Yasmin Catley has been subject to many controversies which could hurt her but the election isn’t until 2027 so it might be irrelevant by then.
As for Lake Macquarie I agree it may be winnable after Greg Piper resigns given the notional margin is typically lower than any Newcastle seat (in 2023 it was high but in 2019 Labor only had 58% notional TPP). The Liberals tend to do quite well around Warners Bay as well as up around Bar Beach and Merewether which are both in the seat of Newcastle itself.
Swansea covers both parts of Newcastle and parts of the Central Coast. It seems that Lake Munmorah, Valentine and the surrounding suburbs are the best booths for the Liberals in Swansea. But then in 2011 which was a Coalition landslide the margin in Swansea was just 2%. In Charlestown it was nearly 10%.
João Paulo, thanks for commenting. Would you say you prefer Speakman to Minns based on personality or manner, or is there a policy reason for your preference, or both?
@Nether Portal (Minecraft reference?) yes that it correct that Warners Bay has a higher Liberal vote than the rest of Newcastle.
@Wilson no worries. I would say on both matters I prefer Speakman. He seems more logical and strategic than Minns. For example I’m a young person who intends to study technology at university and my tech logic says the ban on social media for under 14s, while not a bad idea, is unachievable and unenforceable. Under 16 is even worse and the idea for that is shit too since 16 is when you can drink.
I also think the last Liberal-National Coalition government did well in terms of transport and infrastructure and stuff. Here in Newcastle we got trams in the CBD under the Coalition for example and Opal Cards were introduced in every place between Dungog and Nowra and out to Bathurst (which includes all of Sydney, the Lower Hunter, the Central Coast, the Illawarra, the Blue Mountains and the Shoalhaven).
@Nether Portal (Minecraft reference?) yes that it correct that Warners Bay has a higher Liberal vote than the rest of Newcastle.
@Wilson no worries. I would say on both matters I prefer Speakman. He seems more logical and strategic than Minns. For example I’m a young person who intends to study technology at university and my tech logic says the ban on social media for under 14s, while not a bad idea, is unachievable and unenforceable. Under 16 is even worse and the idea for that is shit too since 16 is when you can drink.
I also think the last Liberal-National Coalition government did well in terms of transport and infrastructure and stuff. Here in Newcastle we got trams in the CBD under the Coalition for example and Opal Cards were introduced in every place between Dungog and Nowra and out to Bathurst (which includes all of Sydney, the Lower Hunter, the Central Coast, the Illawarra, the Blue Mountains and the Shoalhaven).
PS: if my other comment goes through moderation I accidentally used my middle name instead of my last name. Discard that comment.
João Paulo, your point about the social media ban is fair enough, I agree it’s unenforceable. Just a bit more information on other points, the drinking age in Australia is actually 18, and the trams in Newcastle CBD simply replaced a previous heavy rail line. So while the trams may be an improvement (I couldn’t say since I have never been to Newcastle), it seems like only a slight improvement, as they don’t grant access to anywhere that wasn’t already reachable through public transport.