LIB 6.2%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Conolly, since 2011.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
North-western Sydney. Riverstone includes northern parts of the City of Blacktown, including Glenwood, Quakers Hill, Riverstone and Stanhope Gardens.
Redistribution
Riverstone contracted, losing Angus in the north-western corner of the seat to Londonderry, and losing Glenwood in the south-eastern corner to Winston Hills. These changes slightly reduced the Liberal margin from 6.3% to 6.2%.
History
Riverstone was first created for the 1981 election. It was Labor-held continuously until 2011.
The seat was first won in 1981 by Tony Johnson, who had served as Member for Mount Druitt since 1973. Johnson retired in 1983, triggering a by-election.
The 1983 by-election was won by Richard Amery. He held the seat until 1991. In 1991, the redistribution saw the restoration of the seat of Mount Druitt, covering areas previously covered by Riverstone. Amery moved to Mount Druitt, which he has held ever since. He served as a minister in the state Labor government from 1995 to 2003.
Riverstone was won in 1991 by John Aquilina, who had served as Member for Blacktown since 1981. He served as a minister in Labor governments from 1986 to 1988 and again from 1995 to 2003. In 2003 he left the ministry and was elected Speaker. He served as Speaker until the 2007 election, and then sat on the backbench until his retirement in 2011.
At the 2011 election, Riverstone was won by Liberal candidate Kevin Conolly with a 30% swing. Conolly was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Kevin Conolly is not running for re-election.
Assessment
A substantial swing is required for Conolly to lose, but Riverstone has a history of big swings and was Labor-held until just three terms ago. The seat is also changing quickly. It’s not hard to imagine this seat changing hands.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Conolly | Liberal | 28,956 | 54.1 | -1.1 | 54.0 |
| Annemarie Christie | Labor | 21,328 | 39.9 | +8.3 | 40.0 |
| Alex Van Vucht | Greens | 3,226 | 6.0 | +0.6 | 6.0 |
| Informal | 1,612 | 2.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Conolly | Liberal | 29,337 | 56.3 | -5.9 | 56.2 |
| Annemarie Christie | Labor | 22,735 | 43.7 | +5.9 | 43.8 |
Booths in Riverstone have been split into three parts: east, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.5% in the south to 60.3% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 54.5 | 12,221 | 28.0 |
| East | 60.3 | 8,397 | 19.2 |
| North | 58.6 | 5,551 | 12.7 |
| Pre-poll | 53.9 | 9,220 | 21.1 |
| Other votes | 55.2 | 8,332 | 19.1 |
Election results in Riverstone at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Probably a narrow Liberal retain. The Liberal candidate is pretty heavily building out his profile, the Labor candidate is still a bit of an unknown. I doubt anyone here voted for Connolly personally, though the government has done a lot for the area, he was a pretty ineffective MP.
Aaron, I must object to that characterisation. I live in neighbouring Kellyville, however, I travel into Riverstone most every day, and I have seen Warren Kirby about at Metro stations and Shopping Centres, sometimes with Prue Car or Michelle Rowland. On the other hand, I have only once seen Mohit Kumar. This could just be chance, however, from what I have seen, Mr Kirby is running a much stronger campaign than Mr Kumar. Also, you have to look at the history of the seat (by that I mean its record prior to 2011). I know there have been boundary changes, however, Riverstone was Labor held for DECADES before 2011. With Mr Kirby running a strong campaign (again, not to say that Mohit Kumar is not) I think this seat will revert back to ALP hands.
thats good its looking like a labor majority then
https://www.afr.com/politics/the-sydney-seat-that-could-secure-a-labor-election-victory-20230307-p5cpzd
Polling done the electorate thoughts?
I tip a Labor win but not as high as 54% 2PP as the opinion poll suggests.
I may have noted earlier that Labor overperformed here at the 2022 federal election. They scored a swing of over 10% and a 2PP of over 60% at most booths in the area. It must’ve been a personally popular Labor MP plus a dud Liberal candidate.
well desbite her low publick profile thelocal federal mp now communications ninister michelle rowland seems a very popular local member she has recordid a swing to her at evry election she has been compaired to prue Car who is known as one of the hardist working state mps
how is riverstone lookingis laborlikely to winn
how will riverstone turn out on electiond ay
This is a very unusual situation, given that Riverstone had the shortest ballot at the last election.
AE Forecasts – LAB 2.1%
Sportsbet – $1.60 LAB
TAB – $1.50 LAB
Two new candidates on the Left, 1 on the right, especially given as a SFF with not that much rural about the seat itself, making this candidature highly unusual and not likely to take off. I’m still anticipating a straight shoot-out between Lab-Lib. There was also approximately a 50% exhaustion from the Greens.
The spread of new candidates will slightly help the LIB as it will dilute the left vote more-so than Labor but, given the swing and this seat’s propensity to swing, a Labor win here is not out of the question
I think this seat will be a Labor gain but barely, with the Labor margin unlikely to exceed 3%. There are lots of local infrastructure grievances in this seat which voters will certainly blame on the state govt, just like in Wentworth Point and Olympic Park. I do think this seat is more likely to be a Labor gain than neighbouring Winston Hills though.
@ dan m given the previous vote and the addition of the sff im inclined to posssibly agree however i think any margin wont be greater then 2% either way
i dont think sff running hear will make any differents all the parties lower house mps resigned from the party and the party only does well in country seats
This is a must win seat for Labor if they want Chris Minns to be premier. This seat is the Sydney equivalent of Point Cook in Melbourne which Labor held pretty comfortably over the past elections.
@ john smith doubtful gain here as the electorate has only shrunk and didnt take in any extra territory and the margin didnt shrink so unless there is a strong dissafatisfaction with the govt i doubt ti will
Mostly agree with Point Cook comparison with one caveat is that Point Cook contains Altona Meadows which is traditional working class and less ethically diverse. If the Point Cook electorate included Williams Landing and excluded Altona Meadows it would be a perfect analogy to Riverstone both are high income growth areas with a large South Asian community many who came as International students.
….well then..
turns out we won hear which is suprising
Is it a surprise? This was a must-win for Labor to form government in my book, which they were highly favoured to achieve. High income suburbs with increasing ethnic diversity have trended heavily towards Labor in recent years.
Agree Adda, this win wasn’t as a surprise compared to seats like South Coast and Terrigal which I had rated as Likely/Safe for the Liberal Party. As an open seat in a swing region, Riverstone was always considered a close contest and it turns out Labor’s messaging resonated better with voters here, even though the Liberals nominated a strong, non-white candidate.
The ALP won this comfortably in the end with a 2PP swing of over 12%. It’s not really that surprising, given the federal results and the lack of an incumbent sitting MP. The ALP has done well this election in seats with lots of new housing estates (Camden and Leppington as well as this seat) – lack of infrastructure in these areas seems to have been a key issue?
@Yoh An Not really sure Mohit Kumar was a particularly strong candidate given the only reason he’s the candidate is due to him being part of the Diaz family faction. I think the seats with the biggest infrastructure issues were the ones that swung the most. This effect can also be seen in the new developments in Parramatta and Londonderry. The only exception is Badgerys Creek despite the controversial MP there but I’m guessing it could be that there is support the Aerotropolis development there bringing up property values and the like.
Fair point Dan if Mohit did have links to the Diaz family who are considered to be from the ‘right’ faction. I was considering the fact that Mohit being a former police officer was considered to have a non-political background and thus a stronger contender compared to candidates like Luke Sikora in South Coast who were ex political staffers.
The win wasn’t a surprise. Riverstone was a pre-2011 red wall seat and was an open seat in 2023. I was more surprised by the double-digit 2PP swing.
It also needs to be remembered that this part of Sydney along the Richmond train line swung very heavily to Labor in the federal election as well.
Yep. This and Parramatta were to me the most likely seats to swing hugely this election. Ryde was another candidate which panned out.
The 13% swing in neighbouring Kellyville and 12% in Castle Hill were slightly bigger than expected, but not totally out of nowhere considering the pattern of federal swings being replicated in the state election.
is mohit kumar part of the diaz faction i actualy think he was backed buy out going mp kevin connolly also from the right faction but dislikkes diaz Mohit ran for blacktown cowncil but mist out running with backing of connolly
This and Camden were growth seats.. which meant they could swing hard…which is exactly what happened