Pittwater – NSW 2023

LIB 20.8% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Rob Stokes, since 2007.

Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. The seat covers the former Pittwater council area and northern parts of the former Warringah council area. The seat covers Narrabeen, Warriewood, Elanora Heights, Mona Vale, Newport, Avalon and Scotland Island.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The seat of Pittwater has existed since the 1973 election. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party throughout that period. The Liberal Party has won the seat at every general election, although it was won by an independent at the 2005 by-election, and he held the seat until 2007.

The seat was first won in 1973 by Liberal Premier Robert Askin. He had first been elected to Parliament in 1950 as the member for the new seat of Collaroy. He became Leader of the Opposition in 1959, and ended 24 years of Labor rule in NSW when he became Premier at the 1965 election.

Collaroy was abolished in 1973, and Askin moved to the new seat of Pittwater, covering much of the same territory as his former seat. Askin retired as Premier and from Parliament in 1975.

The 1975 Pittwater by-election was won by Liberal candidate Bruce Webster. He held the seat until 1978.

Pittwater was won in 1978 by Liberal candidate Max Smith. He won re-election in 1981 and 1984, but after winning a third term in 1984 he resigned from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent. He resigned from Parliament in 1986.

The 1986 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Jim Longley. He served as a minister from 1992 to 1995, and retired in 1996.

Another by-election was held in 1996, and was won by John Brogden. He was promoted to the Coalition frontbench after the 1999 election. In March 2002, he challenged Opposition Leader Kerry Chikarovski and won a narrow party room vote. He led the Liberal Party to a landslide defeat in 2003, but later in the term appeared on track to win the next election.

Following the retirement of Premier Bob Carr in 2005, Brogden was exposed for offensive comments he made about the retiring Premier’s wife, and he was forced to resign as Liberal leader. Shortly after, he made an unsuccessful suicide attempt, and resigned as Member for Pittwater.

At the following by-election, the Liberals were hit hard by accusations that Brogden’s opponents in the party had pursued him and brought about the end of his political career. The seat was won by independent candidate Alex McTaggart, the Mayor of Pittwater.

At the 2007 election, McTaggart lost to Liberal candidate Rob Stokes, a former advisor to John Brogden. Stokes has been re-elected three times.

Stokes served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the O’Farrell government, and has served as a minister since 2014.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Rob Stokes is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Pittwater is a safe Liberal seat, barring a strong local independent.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Robert Stokes Liberal 28,170 57.4 -10.4
Miranda Korzy Greens 7,518 15.3 -0.8
Jared Turkington Labor 6,168 12.6 -0.2
Suzanne Daly Sustainable Australia 1,832 3.7 +3.7
Michael Newman Keep Sydney Open 1,644 3.3 +3.4
Natalie Matkovic Animal Justice 1,417 2.9 +2.9
Stacey Mitchell Conservatives 1,283 2.6 +2.6
Stewart Matthews Independent 1,087 2.2 +2.2
Informal 1,346 2.7

2019 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Robert Stokes Liberal 29,696 70.8 -4.8
Miranda Korzy Greens 12,225 29.2 +4.8

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Robert Stokes Liberal 30,070 72.4 -5.5
Jared Turkington Labor 11,486 27.6 +5.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Pittwater have been split into four areas based around key suburbs. From north to south these are: Avalon, Newport, Mona Vale, Narrabeen.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all four areas, ranging from 60.9% in Avalon to 75.8% in Narrabeen.

Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.6% in Avalon and Newport to 13.3% in Narrabeen.

Voter group ALP prim % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Narrabeen 13.3 75.8 12,215 24.9
Mona Vale 11.8 72.4 6,645 13.5
Avalon 11.6 60.9 5,533 11.3
Newport 11.6 67.8 5,214 10.6
Pre-poll 12.6 72.3 11,734 23.9
Other votes 13.2 68.8 7,778 15.8

Election results in Pittwater at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.

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120 COMMENTS

  2. Agree NP – a scandal plagued MP remaining in office (like Gareth Ward) even as an independent can attract criticism/ridicule from the public and media, so it is preferred that they step down to give ‘clean air’ and not be a distraction for their party (either current or former).

  3. @NP why would he resign if hes not guilty remember Gareth Ward is also facing charges but hes still there most likely he will be sidelined by the liberal party until after the allegations are dealt with.

    @yoh an most likely he will be sidelined bythe libs until after the allegations are dealt with

  6. @daniel t he wont resign from parliament unless hes guilty. he may be put outside the liberal party but other then that it will be 2027 before they can try again. im guessing by that time teals wil be a thing of the past

  10. @darcy yea but worst case scenario is the libs boot him out of the party and put in a new candidate by 2027 people will have had enough of teals so its not like the libs will lose it anyway and even if they do it wont go to labor

  12. ”It’s worth remembering that Perrottet and Stokes pleaded with the Liberal Party state executive not to endorse Amon “amid concerns that Amon was not a suitable candidate” back in December 2022. What did they know?”

    NP, I agree with you on reddit, It is full of left-wing hypocrisy, (same with discord), at the 2022 federal election I was viciously attacked for putting One Nation 2nd on the ballot and the Greens last. People just don’t have respect for ones opinion anymore.

    I believe we all should debate but it should be done in a friendly professional manner with no personal attacks, I will be in the audience this coming Monday on ABC Q&A and I hopefully will be able to ask my question about mental health, see if you spot me in the audience.

    I agree with others on here that the MP is innocent until proven guilty, however he almost certainly will be asked to resign by Mark Speakman as a Liberal MP and will likely join Ward on the crossbench. He also could quit as an MP altogether but that will likely give another Teal a seat which will make it a tad bit harder for the Libs to win the next state election (which is unlikely they would anyway based on history alone with 1st term governments) However why spoil your chances further by losing this seat in a by-election?

    MP only won by 606 votes with OPV.

  13. @Daniel T He’s already resigned from parliament, as he’s handed his resignation to Greg Piper as of this afternoon.

    This by-election certainly won’t be a walk-in for the Liberals unlike Hornsby, particularly given the circumstances. Pittwater’s in Teal territory and a strong Teal Independent (maybe whoever ran last time) could win it quite easily if they tried.

  14. @Nether Portal Every Aus reddit sub (aside from r/australia and r/circlejerkaustralia) is an absolute far left dumpster fire.

    I doubt any of them would have had the same reaction when the allegations against Will Fowles came out.

  16. @Tommo9 the result in 2023 was about 600 votes between the teal candidate Jaquie Scruby and Rory, so if she runs again I guess she would be a good chance

  17. Regarding Rory Amon, let the court work out the verdict and his fate. Regardless, it’s a bad reflection on the Liberal Party to have a first term MP resigning controversially, especially from a historically Liberal seat. The vetting process is important for any party but occasionally some slip through the cracks.

    I mentioned previously in 2023 that Jacqui Scruby, following a narrow loss, might run again. Rob Stokes was considering federal politics, but I wonder if he would come back to state politics as he was pretty popular.

  19. Jacqui Scruby would surely be in the box seat if she decided to run again for the seat at the by-election.

    Will be interested to see the timing on this one, is it too late to hold it concurrent with the other two on October 19?

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