Penrith – NSW 2023

jobs foor the boysis not illegal but it is not a good look

this is a verry differentcontest to the federal seat of lindsay labor has a far stronger candadate in local cowncilor and former mayor karin mckeown who ran before and seems a solid candadate plus it doesnt hurt having prue caras deputy in the seat near bywho is sceen as one of the hardist working mps plus she is very senyor as shadow education minister

it seems when ever there is a scandle the department head gets the sack andthey get blamed when it seems Ayres waws also involved and if the department head depends on the minister to keep there job koolts Trotter also does not look good out of this hopefully hewillgo if minns winns

Not just jobs for the boys . Was a public service job then changed to ministerial appointments then changed to public service job. This delay gave Barilaro a chance to apply. But when he applied it was a public service job.. could no longer be a ministerial appointment. So the job had to be under the more open public service rules…. application.. referees reports. Selection panel and then decision. It was not the prerogative of Ayres or Amy Brown to make the selection. They needed to follow the public service guide lines aimed at selection of the best applicant. The whole process was rorted from start to finish and Ayres was an integral part of this. The appointment of Rudd was not a public service selection so the basis of selection was as a ministerial appointment. That is the difference.

I’ve not commented on this election mainly because of this illiterate Aaron guy flooding the site with comments that are barely understandable on several read throughs. I also thought they would be massive defamation risks.

maybi a liberal could give us an update on if Stuart ayres can retain this seat in stead of irelivant poasts

@lnp insider the beauty on anonymity I guess

spoken like a true ‘LNP insider’

How is One Nation polling in Penrith against the two major parties. I’ve noticed there very active.

i dont think one nation will do to well hear until now latham has kept a lowprofile so far with out iva hanson or lathams personal vote the party will have little support

dought one nation will do very well hear apart from latham the party has little profile

ayres is being sewid buy the former trade department oficial that mised o ut to barilarow

I have been commenting here for many years compared to you Daniel (Cowboy) and I think I have a right to comment. It is a site that welcomes a range of comments and I’ve had mainly civil discussion with people of left parties on here, but Aaron posting 7 or 8 comments in a row that doesn’t include one understandable sentence is a bit much.

maybi a liberal insider could give us an update on penrith Stuart ayres must be finished

l np insider how do you think ayres will ggo it seems unlikely that liberals can retain this seat iftalking about things other then election campaign

Agree LNP Insider – Aaron you need to stop making regular posts asking people how the result will be like. It appears you make them almost every week.

okay will find out nexxt saturday it should be close hear

There was a poll that came out recently that suggesting Ayres was gaining but I don’t see it happening.
AE Forecasts – LAB 2.6%
SportsBet – LAB $1.30
TAB – LAB $1.35

These have improved marginally but not enough to tip the scale. I think Ayres is done for.

it seems ayres has to be strugiling his team convinsed Gladis to join the campaign to give him support this seems to show perhaps Ayres is doing worse then leaked poles

I remember seeing a poll pointing to Ayres holding on as well, but only just.

This seat is probably defendable unlike East Hills and hence Gladys campaigning here.

There was a swing in the general area to the Libs at the federal election and the area is pretty receptive to a hard right leader like Perrottet so they do have some hope here unlike say Parramatta.

yes but gladis has campaigned in no otherseat iva she is friends with Ayres or more likely he is not doing well hear also gladis campaigning hear shows desbite what ther herald claims she is still more popular then perottit

Internal commentary suggesting that Stuart Ayres may actually hang on. One thing to watch for in this seat is the about 4,000 in votes that are up for grabs due to candidates not running. In terms of preference flow, the point was made that this was one of the stronger seats with a preference flow from Labor to Greens. However, the difficulty for Labor is that the vote-split this time around is happening on the left.

The recent improved ReachTel Poll, coupled with the fact that the Liberal Party Primary Vote has often moved in line with the State-Wide Poll, suggests that this seat may not be the write-off that it appeared 6-months ago.

In Urban seats it is very hard to resist the swing especially where the margin is less than 1%. The swing in the country areas may well be dampened and this may make a difference in say Goulburn and upper Hunter. Here Ayres is damaged by his role in the Barilaro affair and his margin is so small

Did Gladys do anything here other than appear on Ayres’ Instagram? Unless I’m mistaken, it’s a bit of a stretch to say she was “campaigning”

I find internal commentary to be very unreliable within the LNP. When its a bad election for them. Sometimes people delude themselves. Aka Townsville in the seats at the last state election and Yeppon.

Sydney Libs might be different though.

@Mick – given that he was exonerated by ICAC, I think that issue is put to bed. There may be some collateral damage but ICAC on its own is long gone now.

The challenge with this seat is that the redistribution basically puts it right on the cusp of the Coalition Primary Vote Trend, which is currently showing a 3-4% swing from the last election (correct me if I am wrong). On a such a razer-thing margin, it is a challenge.

As stated, in his favour is 4000 votes currently up for grabs, coupled with a splintering of voting on the left.

Agreed – case in point for the last Federal and Victorian elections. On the other hand Labor (perhaps haunted by the ghosts of 2019) tends to downplay their own chances when they are doing well and get overly worried at the first sign of danger.

For this seat, the main problem in my eyes is that it’s one of the relatively few seats where OPV clearly damages the Liberals. In the federal election the Liberals defied the swing but it appears tougher in this context when a lot of One Nation voters will exhaust their preferences. Still not out of the question but clearly an uphill battle.

i think it is tougher then last election it doesnt realy matter what icac said the damage was all ready dun plus ayres not being in cabenit would not help him desbite him being a long term mp Ayres was not in very senyor ministries in stead given junier roles like sport

I’d say this is a tossup because Labor has a path to victory. It may happen if there’s a swing to ON, and away from the Libs, but there isn’t a strong preference flow to the Libs. The SFF and Christian Democrats won’t be running and their voters will probably go looking for a right-wing minor party. ON is doubling down in Western and South-Western Sydney. They explicitly stated that they won’t preference anyone. Based on Ben Raue’s analysis, most ON votes exhausted in 2019.

Since the last state election, there were swings to the Liberals in Lindsay at both the 2019 and 2022 election. You’d think that Labor has restrategised in this neck of the woods.

i dont think labor put much effort in lindsay last time where as penrith running a active campaign

i dont think ayres will do well

@aaron i hear liberal are confident on holding this

the liberals are so confident hear they got gladis to campaign plus john howard and perottit dont think thatmeans there confident

it seems the liberals are strugiling with the party biring out howard to help ayres

I’m sure John Howard’s magic will help.

As insignificant as it sounds, losing Glenbrook in the redistribution may ironically be one of the best things that could happen to Ayres, given the cut to his margin. It is the only area (at face value) that has a real appetite for moving to the left in such a tight seat. There’s reason to believe this seat could stay Liberal, but there’s also a possibility that in ~30 hours this comment could age like milk.

howard does not help the liberals just ask stephin marshil and morrison if bringing him out helped them i think liberals would have a better chance with old seat

and labor won turns out i was right

turns out labor won hear think ayres damaged there vote

so ayres still refusing to consed

Looks like all the late campaigning for the Liberals wasn’t helpful out here – 4.7% election day booth swing to ALP vs 0.2% swing to Liberals in prepolls. If we’re drilling down into specific areas, it looks like Emu Plains brought it home for the ALP – 9-10% swings in both its election day booths and a 6.5% swing to the ALP in its pre-polling station. This is interesting because Emu Plains is still the most Liberal voting part of Penrith – the Liberals’ 2PP strength is mainly west of the Nepean now.

One Nation got a primary vote of 8.1% while the Greens and Animal Justice combined for 8.5%. Good effort for the left minors to outpoll One Nation IMO and I think they should slowly improve in Penrith over time as further residential development occurs. I think Penrith is too metropolitan for One Nation to make any further significant inroads here.

i agree emyuplanes could have dun well for labor because the new member Karin mckeown lives in that aria i think it was a big mistake Stuart ayres re contesting hear he was damaged since the Barilarow scandle and a new candadate would have given the party a new start the liberals did very well hear in cowncil and federaly with mcgintosh

Friendly Jordies told people here to vote Labor and they did.

i dont think so most jordies fans vote labor any way or greens he is about as influential as sky news

Would I be right in saying this area is similar to Caboolture in Queensland?

No, Penrith’s median household income ($1903/week) is significantly higher than Caboolture’s ($1310/week). Also higher levels of educational attainment in Penrith – 26% have bachelor’s degree or higher vs 18.6% Caboolture. Figures taken from ABS 2021 Census Quickstats. Penrith is more middle class than Caboolture.