Oatley – NSW 2023

The last result with a 3.9% swing to the liberals was close to the worst alp vote in 15 years. With the shifting of Blakehurst to Kograrah there is a 3% swing to Labor.. that is 6.9 % with a current margin of 10% in 2019…this leaves a 3% margin potentially in play

Most likely a Liberal hold here with a swing to Labor. This is despite Oatley being an ex-Labor seat and the large swings to Labor in the east at the federal election. The riverside suburbs (Lugarno, Oatley, Connells Point) are now solidly Liberal. They are low density and the houses are really expensive. The population is aging and retirees are moving in. There are lots of new apartments in Peakhurst and this area will be a bellwether.

Good point @Mick and @Votante
If Labor works its @ss off here there is a real possibility it could be won by Labor especially since the Michael Daley comments factor has been eroded and that Chris Minns is the neighbouring MP.

Mark Coure is a popular member. Agree the waterfront suburbs are getting more affluent, i dont think the swings to Labor in parts of Banks is an indication of what will happen at a state level, the Hawkish stance towards China would have played a role also state Libs are more progressive on climate etc.

It is going to take a retirement or a 2011-style landslide for the Liberal Party to now lose Oatley. Mark Coure almost has this seat as long as he wants it.

Mark Coure is easily the Liberal version of Barry Collier who served in the neighboring seat of Miranda.

This seat is never safe but will probably take Labor to win 50+ seats before they can snatch this one. It will be a problem for Labor if they can’t pick off seats like this and Ryde due to popular incumbents.

In response to Daniel (because there is no general post available yet), if Labor do fall short of a majority then they have some backup from a few crossbench members.

The three incumbent Greens MP’s are to some degree favoured to win re-election (although Ballina could be a toss-up seat if then Nationals pick a strong candidate). Furthermore, I believe Alex Greenwich in Sydney would be highly likely to back Labor instead of the Coalition due to his support of progressive issues and the left leaning nature of his district.

That would make 3-4 guaranteed crossbench votes for Labor, with at least two others (Joe McGirr in Wagga Wagga and Greg Piper in Lake Macquarie) being line ball and flexible/willing to support either major party in the event of a hung parliament.

Mr Coure is not as popular as Mr Collier was.He is not shifting 10% of the vote from Labor to liberal. But he after getting a 14% swing to Labor in 2011 has steadily improved on his vote share in two subsequent elections which were good for the liberals. Take away the 3.9% swing.in 2019 the margin here is 3 to 4 %

Re the cross bench.. 3 greens 1 ind ex sff Alex Greenwich who I wouldbcsll

Call a ind green. 2 sff who would not necessarily support the libs.that party has acted as rural populists and are not on good terms with the coalition Mr Piper who represents a Newcastle seat and is I think left of centre. That leaves Mr McGuire who may support the coalition. The best outcome for the libs is 5/4 more likely a better split which equals an.alp minority government

The Nats tried running the very green, very left-leaning on social policy and openly gay Ben Franklin in Ballina last time and didn’t win. Wonder who they will try this time.

Sorry should be Joe mcgirr

Mark Coure won in 2011 (barely) and increased his margin in 2015 (when there was a 10% statewide swing to Labor) and in 2019. He’ll retain but I predict he will get his first swing away. This seat will be hard for Labor to flip.

I predict a hung parliament. I don’t smell a landslide coming. If Labor flips 6 LNP seats and all minor parties and independent MPs (other than the 2 ex-Liberal MPs) retain, then Dominic’s gone. We’re more likely to see the 3 Greens, Alex Greenwich and maybe Greg Piper supporting Labor than see the SFF supporting the LNP.

It’s going to be difficult for Labor to win. Though the swing is definitely on, there aren’t many marginal Lib state seats (NSW electorates tend to be quite safe possibly due to the impact of OPV). On the flip side if the Libs improve their position, there aren’t many marginal Labor state seats to take.

I agree with @Votante’s assessment. I look at the Coalition side of the pendulum and I think, “Well, hang on, which seats are Labor actually going to win?”.

A way of looking at things is to look at. The difference between alp and libs. Then look at primary votes on left groups and right groups this shows the pool available

Here big gap approx 20% lib 54.8% left and right are 6% each.. despite the exhausted votes alp is plus 6% and lnp about 5%. In 2pp to give 60/40.

At the 2011 wipeout election, Oatley and its neighbour East Hills were won by the slimmest margins (0.5% to 0.6%) and yet the Libs retained both in 2015 and 2019.

Was Labor really over-optimistic back in 2015? Did they take Oatley and East Hills for granted and assume a win without any effort? Were there controversial or unlucky Labor candidates?

I get that a redistribution increased Oatley’s Liberal margin to 3.8% pre-2015 election. There were ex-Labor heartland seats that the Libs won by larger margins in 2011 (e.g. Granville, Campbelltown, a few on the Central Coast/Hunter) but flipped back to Labor in 2015.

Oatley is more of a natural Liberal seat than say most of the Central Coast, and Granville/Campbelltown are natural Labor seats so that makes sense.

The old seat of Georges River was competitive, and was narrowly held in 1995 when Labor won under Carr. Kevin Greene was a popular MP and was the reason why the Liberals only narrowly won in their 2011 landslide.

There is virtually no opv bonus to the libs here. Margin now. 7.4% the result here last election.was very bad.. the worst I have seen for about 15 years. If you subtract the 3.9% swing last time you get a margin of about 3% from what I see a margin of 3 to 4% based on federal election voting.. This seat appears to be liberal inclined with the sitting mp as the candidate.. most likely result is a liberal win..but if the swing occurs….

The natural electoral dynamics doesn’t entirely explain the 2015 Liberal-hold. There was a statewide 2PP swing of 10% to ALP in 2015 and yet Mark Coure (LIB) increased his 2PP vote on top of the redistribution.

Yes personal votes important. This predecessor seat as Georges River held by Frank Walker with a personal vote till 1988 loss. Liberal held till won by Kevin Green

He narrowly lost it in 2011.. but declined to recontest. If he had done so he could have won in 2015.. whoever Labor picked did not have Mr Green ‘ appeal…maybe this explains the 2015 result but not 2019… but then 2019 election was especially bad for Labor…hard to tell if the 2 opinion polls reflect Labors improved position then this seat is in play⁸

The ALP candidate in Oatley is the legal counsel for the NSW AHA! Once that’s more widely known she may have a hard time saying she’s representing the locals rather than lobbyists!?

PS: love your work!!

Hard to tell it appears Mr Coure has a personal vote…. there will be a swing back to the alp from 2019
which was a horrible alp vote. would suspect liberal hold……. but could be wrong

I think this only goes if its a landslide Labor win.

Labor can significantly improve its vote around Narwee, Penshurst and Mortdale. Lots of working class renters in unit blocks, many of them Chinese-Australian voters. That alone should cut the margin. Beyond this though, the rest of the seat is tougher – much of it affluent liberal-leaning territory near the river.

LD- not all Chinese Australians who rent are natural Liberal voters.
Also not all renters of Chinese ethnicity are eligible voters. Many could be on visas or have PR, as is the case in Rhodes and Burwood.

But even taking your point that the majority of those particular suburbs you named, specifically Mortdale which has seen massive gentrification and a growth in the Liberal vote, would have Chinese Australian renters, who may be inclined to vote Labor.
You’d still need a good candidate, like what Jason and Sally did in Strathfield and Reid to push them across the line.
If they put another bland candidate forward going against someone like Coure, that would be a wasted opportunity by Labor

Correction— should read “not all Chinese Australians who rent are natural Labor voters”.
Many are aspirational who will send their children to independent schools and are looking to get a deposit down on their first home, and own their own business/es. Which makes them harder to hold on to in the Labor Party long term.

Where I think Labor picks up in an electorate like Oatley is Middle Eastern and Bangladeshi Australian voters who are moving southward from Beverly Hills, Wiley Park and Punchbowl

Oatley, the electorate, is mostly low-density, and the rate of home ownership (including with mortgages) is much higher than the national average. The more working class areas are in the north i.e. Riverwood and Narwee. There are lots of new-ish apartments (<10 years old) in Riverwood and Peakhurst. Mortdale and Penshurst have lots of old two to three storey blocks.

Generally, the housing is low-density and more expensive, more likely to be owned and the population is older and/or has more nuclear families in the riverside suburbs. The working class population shrunk and the area has become more affluent and gentrified, because of its geography and low-density housing.

Given the relatively older population and homeowners sitting on gold mines, it's very hard for Labor to pick up this seat unless Mark Coure retires or there's a wipeout like in 2011.

Many Chinese Australians are probably even more natural Liberal voters than much of the traditional Anglo Liberal base given many are aspirational and relatively middle class and affluent in addition to being quite traditional and socially and culturally conservative with issues like climate change not being as much of a priority compared to things like economics, taxation and law and order. The fact that Liberals have been doing so poorly among them recently is a huge concern for them.
Just for the record, I’m not saying all Chinese Australians are like that but a significant portion of them are.

Definite win for Mr Coure. I often shop in Hurstville: there is no way, even with the seat redistribution, that this seat goes to Labor.

The seat is in between an Upper North Shore seat due to the wealthy riverside homeowners, but also similar to the northwest seats because Oatley as a suburb is increasingly desirable for aspirational families who enjoy their proximity to Hurstville (similar to northwest proximity to Macquarie etc).

Similarly, other parts of the seat have been gentrified massively – with the same families purchasing said million dollar houses, with conservative social and economic values.

Mark Coure is somewhat inoffensive and has done nothing to warrant people to switch up their vote. It’s pretty clear this is a Lib retain (from a person who has been observing the demographic for a long time).

well Daley hurt labors vote mark coure seems a popular local member dont know ifthe former federal liberals over the top retorick on china which helped labor in seats with high chinease populations likeReid and winning Benalong for only the second time in history maybi morrisons defeat will help kour hear

I think LIB hold up here, with a reduced margin.

AE Forecasts – LIB 1.6%
Sportsbet – LIB $1.22
TAB – LIB $1.18

While AE Forecasts suggest it will be close, the betting agencies are suggesting that Coure has this in the bag.

This would be the upset of the election if this fall and would suggest that the Liberal Party is in some dark times. Not quite Labor 2011 but only marginally better than the results in 2003.

A vote for Mark Coure is a vote for more privatisation, a vote for Mark Coure I is a vote for Dominic Pertiott, who is hamstrung by the
National Party , who have ignored climate science for the last 12 years.

In NSW voters expect an ambulance to arrive to an emergency , this doesn’t happen due staff shortages .

In NSW voters expect emergencies services to arrive after severe westher events ,this was absent in Lismore.

In NSW voters don’t accept pork barreling as a acceptable way of using tax payers money to prop up Liberal party seat ie WAGGA WAGGA , which caused a vote election 2018.

Voters of NSW deserve better .

Labor will probably lose this on late counting but the fact that this is on a knifes edge. And East Hills is gained for Labor proves the point Labor should not give up on the St-Georges river, while it will never be safe for Labor again, they can definitely hold these areas if they put the work and have strong incumbents here.