SFF 3.5% vs NAT
Incumbent MP
Helen Dalton (Independent), since 2019.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South-western NSW. The seat of Murray borders Victoria and South Australia, and includes the towns of Griffith, Leeton, Deniliquin, Jerilderie and Wentworth. It covers the entirety of Wentworth, Balranald, Hay, Carrathool, Griffith, Leeton, Edward River, Murrumbidgee, Murray River and Berrigan local government areas.
Redistribution
Murray expanded slightly, taking in the former Jerilderie council area from Albury, unifying it with the remainder of the Murrumbidgee council area.
History
Murray existed as a seat in the NSW Legislative Assembly from 1859 to 1999, when it was renamed Murray-Darling after expanding to cover Broken Hill. In 2015 the seat will be restored to its new name after Broken Hill was transferred out of the seat. The seat has also taken in parts of the abolished seat of Murrumbidgee.
Murray had been dominated by the Country/National Party since 1932, when it had been won by Joe Lawson. He lost Country Party preselection 35 years later in 1967, and was re-elected as an independent in 1968. He held the seat as an independent until his death in 1973.
The following by-election was won by Lawson’s daughter Mary Meillon, who had run as a Liberal. She held the seat until her death in 1980.
The 1980 Murray by-election was won by National Country Party candidate Tim Fischer. He had held the safe Country Party seat of Sturt (a different seat with very different borders to the older Labor seat of the same name) since 1971. Sturt was set to be abolished at the 1981 election, and Fischer resigned his seat early to contest Murray.
Fischer resigned from Sturt in 1984 to contest the federal seat of Farrer. He won the seat and held it until his retirement in 2001. He became leader of the federal National Party in 1990, serving in that role until 1999. He was Deputy Prime Minister from 1996 to 1999.
Jim Small won Sturt at the 1984 by-election for the National Party. He held it until 1999.
When Murray and Broken Hill were merged, the new seat of Murray-Darling had a notional majority for the Nationals. Both sitting MPs retired, and the seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Black.
Black was re-elected in 2003, and developed a reputation as a controversial Labor MP. In 2007, a redistribution made the seat again a notional Nationals seat, and Black was defeated by Nationals candidate John Williams.
The seat of Murrumbidgee was dominated by the ALP in the middle part of the last century, but has been held by the National Party since 1984.
In 1941, the sitting Country Party MP, Robert Hankinson, retired. The official Labor candidate was defeated by independent Labor candidate George Enticknap, who was then welcomed into the Labor caucus in the Parliament. He served as a minister from 1960 to 1965, when he retired.
Al Grassby won Murrumbidgee for the Labor Party at the 1965 election. He resigned from the seat in 1969 to take the federal seat of Riverina. He served as Minister for Immigration from 1972 to 1974, when he lost Riverina.
Lin Gordon won the 1970 Murrumbidgee by-election for the ALP. He served as a minister from 1976 until his retirement in 1984.
In 1984, Murrumbidgee was won by the National Party’s Adrian Cruickshank. He came third on primary votes, but preferences from the Liberal Party pushed him ahead of independent candidate Thomas Marriott. Marriott’s preferences elected Cruickshank over the Labor Party. He held the seat until his retirement in 1999.
Murrumbidgee was held by the National Party’s Adrian Piccoli from 1999 until its abolition in 2015. He served as deputy leader of the NSW National Party from 2008 from 2016, and served as minister for education from 2011 until 2017.
Piccoli shifted to Murray in 2015, and held it until his retirement in 2017. The 2017 by-election was won by Nationals candidate Austin Evans, narrowly defeating independent candidate Helen Dalton.
Dalton returned at the 2019 election as the candidate of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party, and defeated Evans.
Dalton resigned from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party in March 2022 over a disagreement regarding water policy, and now sits as an independent.
Assessment
This seat is a hard one to pick. Dalton now sits as an independent without the support of the party who helped her win in 2019, but she had come close in 2017 as an independent and so must be taken seriously. All the same, the Nationals will still have hopes of winning back this seat before Dalton solidifies her hold.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Helen Dalton | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 18,305 | 38.8 | +38.8 | 38.0 |
| Austin Evans | Nationals | 16,636 | 35.2 | -20.3 | 34.6 |
| Alan Purtill | Labor | 4,134 | 8.8 | -7.4 | 9.0 |
| Tom Weyrich | One Nation | 3,949 | 8.4 | +8.4 | 8.2 |
| Nivanka De Silva | Greens | 1,238 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 2.6 |
| David Landini | Independent | 976 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.0 |
| Philip Langfield | Christian Democrats | 715 | 1.5 | +0.1 | 1.5 |
| Brian Mills | Independent | 633 | 1.3 | -2.4 | 1.3 |
| Carl Kendall | Sustainable Australia | 455 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.1 |
| Liam Davies | Keep Sydney Open | 192 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.4 |
| Others | 1.2 | ||||
| Informal | 1,889 | 3.8 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Helen Dalton | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 20,765 | 53.5 | +6.8 |
| Austin Evans | Nationals | 18,020 | 46.5 | -6.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Austin Evans | Nationals | 20,029 | 74.9 | -0.3 | 74.8 |
| Alan Purtill | Labor | 6,707 | 25.1 | +0.3 | 25.2 |
Booths in Murray have been split into five parts. The most populous centre of the electorate is the two council areas of Griffith and Leeton, so these have been grouped together as “Griffith-Leeton”.
The south-eastern town of Deniliquin has also been grouped together, and the remaining booths have been split into north-east, north-west (including Wellington) and south.
The Shooters won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in three out of five areas, ranging from 50.5% in Griffith-Leeton to 77% in Deniliquin. The Nationals won 51.6% in the north-west and 52.5% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP prim | ON prim | SFF 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Griffith-Leeton | 8.5 | 5.9 | 50.5 | 10,187 | 21.2 |
| South | 6.8 | 10.8 | 61.3 | 7,669 | 15.9 |
| North-East | 11.3 | 6.2 | 47.5 | 3,756 | 7.8 |
| North-West | 11.7 | 8.5 | 48.4 | 3,013 | 6.3 |
| Deniliquin | 9.3 | 13.4 | 77.0 | 1,923 | 4.0 |
| Pre-poll | 8.7 | 8.1 | 53.2 | 15,723 | 32.7 |
| Other votes | 10.8 | 8.5 | 48.3 | 5,875 | 12.2 |
Election results in Murray at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers vs Nationals), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, the Nationals and Labor.
Hey Ben,
Thanks for the guide. I noticed on the main NSW Map it has this listed as a SFF seat. It should be considered IND as Helen Dalton has since left the Shooters “https://www.helendalton.com.au/why_i_left_the_shooters_party” for reference.
Nevertheless, Helen has raised a good profile over her runs in 2015, 2017 and 2019 (to which she was elected). Will be interesting to see if SFF bother to run here against her but really think that even as an IND, this is Helen’s to keep and have marked this down as IND Retain for 2023.
Yes and I’ve also marked it as a SFF seat at the top of this page and on the pendulum, because Dalton was elected as an SFF candidate. I switched Bega from Liberal to Labor because Labor won it in a by-election, but otherwise I don’t change the party status of a seat just because the MP switches. Same reason Hughes was a Liberal seat, not a UAP seat.
I expect Helen Dalton to hold with the benefit of incumbency and name recognition, even though she has the smallest margin out of the three lower house SFF MPs. Phil Donato in Orange had the benefit of incumbency in 2019, whilst in Barwon, there’s the Labor stronghold of Broken Hill. She wasn’t a new kid on the block in 2019 because she had run in elections before. I believe that many voted specifically for her, rather than her party.
SFF may avenge their loss by fielding a strong candidate to take down Helen Dalton but they could risk vote-splitting and helping the Nationals win.
Agreed Votante, I think whether this seat is close or not depends on whether the Shooters decide to run dead here or not.
Edward River mayor Peta Betts has been selected as the Nationals candidate. The SFF seem to have collapsed although Dalton seems relatively popular, depends on if they run against each other. I think this is a total tossup.
It seems in hindsight, Helen left the SFF at a good time with the shenanigans going on mentioned in Barwon & Orange pages.
I currently have the following candidates running in Murray:
NAT – Peta Betts (Source: Riverine Herald with a nice play on words article – Nationals place Betts on Peta)
IND – Helen Dalton
Parties I’d expect to field a candidate: ALP, GRN, ONP, SFF
As to my previous comment, Helen has raised a good profile over her several runs and built up a good profile.
2022 Prediction: Dalton Retain (IND)
Shooters will run hard against Dalton as there is no love lost between her and Borzack. Massive pick up opportunity for Nats.
The underlying nature makes this impossible as an alp win.
The contest will be between Dalton and I think the nat. If she outpolls the nat she wins
Helen Dalton seems like the most left leaning of the former shooters. She will have a good personal vote but I think local Nats can raise the spectre of dual Labor governments and whatever else they did across the border to knock over Cupper and Sheed.
Nat Gain
Probably agree John, Murray and Barwon are both border districts, and may have been affected by covid related travel restrictions. Although that line of argument (overreach by a Labor government) which was used successfully by the Victoria Nationals won’t work that well for NSW given that it is a Coalition government that was in charge during the covid ‘crisis’.
Peta Betts is probably the best candidate the Nats could have chosen based on my limited familiarity of councils in this area.
One to watch let’s see how much the shooters vote sticks with the independant
If Shooters contest the three seats it becomes a complete lottery.
If they don’t, well it depends on how much profile the MP has gained. Based off Katter and the One Nation MPs up my way I would say they are all a good chance of holding.
Lnp insider I agree .. they have positioned themselves as rural independents even while they were still sff members
A week to go and only 2 candidates?
I’m surprised at how few candidates have nominated across the satte so far considering the records of the 2022 federal and Vic state elections.
I’m sure there’ll be a Green and a Labor candidate in Murray. I predict Helen Dalton will hold, especially if SFF doesn’t run. As there’ll be less candidates and possibly no One Nation candidate, there’s less competition and Helen Dalton, who came first on PVs in 2019, will have the upper hand. Lots of Greens and Labor votes will exhaust.
Last year, even before the SFF imploded and the two remaining lower house SFF MPs turned independent, I had predicted she’ll retain.
without the multiple parties distorting the opv like last time this may well come back to the nats
Th new should bring full preference voting 8000 votes were exhaust tr ed last election election on the two candidate preferred and a.whopping 20000 on the 2pp
@hi Tanya that’s because the votes went to other parties the less parties in the race the less chance of the votes being exhausted and then it’s anyone’s game
I’m expecting at least one of the ex-SFF IND candidates to be swept out by the Nationals. Similar to the country independents at the most recent Victorian State Election who had their seats return to the Nationals. In the context of this election in particular, it seems public interest & controversy in water policy has waned (or at least morphed). It really will come down to which of these ex-SFF INDs have established a favourable profile as an MP within their communities. Would love to hear some perspective from these communities.
@SEQ Orange is certain to remain out of nationals hands it will depend on the SFF vote stays with the party and the IND. depending on how it spltis we could see a 3 cornered contest. posibly an IND vs SFF on the 2PP. murray and barwon are vunerable though. the only difference is those seats were held by INDs seen as friendly to the incumbent labor governement where hear its a COA govt so that could be the wild card we’ll find out in 2 weeks
Comparison to Vic election doesn’t work in my opinion. Nats can win seats off Indis if they are in opposition, but it’s much much harder to do from Government.
The heat is on the Nats to show what they have done for the electorate, even though they don’t hold the seat. In Victoria the heat was on the incumbent indis and the Nats could effectively harness community anger at the Andrews Government.
@clyde agreed. but the margin is so small that it might just be possible in barwon and murray considering they were elected on SFF ticket. they may not carry the entire vote they got as if some of that vote was for the party they may well lose to the nats. but Orang is too far a mountain
This is the seat I’ll be watching with greatest interest on election night, along with South Coast, like that seat not based on interest of who will win but rather how much vote everyone gets.
@daniel yes I’m interested in watching bega and lismore personally tbh.
Murray will be too close to call on Election night as we have 4 strong contenders Labor (myself),SFF,Nationals and helen Dalton-Independent and another 6 candidates which is record of 10. Helen Dalton is favourite to retain but will struggle.If Labor preferences flows to Helen, she could retain ,otherwise Nationals will come back in Murray
Wow, a candidate in the comments, this may be a first. I live in this electorate and Dalton is very well liked and as it’s been pointed out, she did almost win as an Independent, so she doesn’t necessarily need the SFF branding. The only problem I see is if voters liked her as a SFF MP then they may still have that allegiance to the party and gift the seat back to the Nationals, but hopefully those voters still preference Dalton.
@simon B not the first
Antony Green pointed to this seat as one to watch. The only other regional seat to watch is Monaro.
I’d expect the Nats to be able to reclaim a few seats from the SFF like this seat and Barwon while they solidify their grip in seats like Upper Hunter. But this won’t be enough to offset Lib losses in metro Sydney which is a similar pattern in the Vic and Federal elections.
I think the Nats has a chance with Barwon – until the fish dieing.