Miranda – NSW 2023

With the latest revelations against the sitting member, this could be in trouble. Especially if Collier comes out of retirement and runs here again.

Barry Collier remains popular here but I doubt he would stand for life style reasons .. I think he is happy in retirement. But if there is a by-election here the libs would of course suffer a significant swing. Don’t think Labor has a candidate similar to Barry Collier

Labor win only win Miranda if it is a landslide defeat for the Libs or a popular Labor government is running for re-election. It will be harder than in the past due to demographic changes that favour the Libs.

I wonder why Labor won the by-election there in 2013 despite being in an otherwise mostly Libs voting territory both federal and state (except for 1999-2011 and 1978-1984) elections. Not to mention it was just after the 2013 LNP federal landslide

Labor won the by-election in 2013 for 2 reasons.. the quality of their candidate Mr Collier a state member of years gone by and the circumstances of the by-elections caused by Mr Annersley deserting the seat

The Libs would most likely retain with or without Eleni Petinos because of the local demographics. People in the Sutherland Shire are older, higher-earning and more religious than average.

I doubt Barry Collier would run. He’s been retired since 2015. Labor could win if there’s a local version of Michael Holland (who scored a double-digit swing in Bega) or a younger version of Barry Collier, combined with a negative view of the Liberals (including Eleni Petinos) and a positive view of Labor.

She’ll have more time to respond to lurid texts from Matt Kean now.

Who knows what Scott Morrison’s fate is. His electorate of Cook covers suburbs east of the Princes Highway (e.g. Miranda, Taren Point) and Kangaroo Point. If Scott resigns and local voters have to vote three times in under a year, it could be punishing for the Liberals in Miranda. Cook will be a Liberal-hold if there’s a by-election.

I agree the libs are most likely to retain.. but Eleni is set to visit icac..over the building Commissioner resignation letter and Coranation property. If she is in trouble then there may be a new liberal candidate….No Barry Collier like candidate for Labor available.. maybe her icac troubles may add to the swirl of corruption

Typo should read booths in Miranda….

If Eleni stands there could be an upset here . I am unaware of the internal numbers in the liberal party here but Eleni may well try and do a Tudge.. I have a safe seat.. disappear and hope the natural demographics save her
If I were the liberals I would look for an alternate candidate

Eleni has stood unopposed. An upset is on the table considering her low popularity in Jannali and Illawong and the tide generally swinging towards Labor. Her best chance at winning, like you referred to with Tudge, is staying away from the spotlight.

Eleni Petinos standing for the Liberals.
Simon Earle (Labor candidate for Cook at the Federal) standing for Labor.

Source – NSWEC Register of Candidates.

I highly doubt the voters here are particularly inclined against Petinos. I doubt there’s even a noticeably outsized swing compared to surrounding seats.

The history of this seat perplexes me. Why has it become so much more favourable to the Liberals over the past two decades? How did Labor win this back at the 2013 by-election, only for it to revert to a safe Liberal seat at the 2015 election?

Nicholas, other commentators mentioned this seat and the Sutherland Shire in general have trended towards the Coalition/Liberals due to the demographics being mostly white and also consisting of tradespeople who are now mostly self-employed and not really supportive of Labor.

@ Yoh An, you are correct tradespeople are now mostly self-employed hence no longer unionized which is why they are drifting to the Coalition this is not a recent trend happened for sometime for example when Howard won Hughes in 1996. In Victoria the outer eastern suburbs state electorates of Evelyn/Croydon have similar demographics and have improved for Coalition over time. They tend to be Anglo with a lot of tradies. It is important to remember that tradespeople while not white collar these days enjoy high standards of living and identify as middle class not working class. However, interestingly the seat of Hastings (Vic) is the least diverse in terms of % people speaking a language other than English at home in the state and has maybe the % of residents working as tradespeople yet Labor won it a week ago.

It would have been smart.for
The liberals to have replaced
Her . They did not so labor’s
Chances have improved enough to won I don’t know. This is also the land of Craig Kelly and Scott Morrison the liberals seem to be doing their best to lose what should be normally a
10% margin liberal seat. Wish them every success in this endeavour

My question is can Eleni.do a Tudge low profile and hope the seats natural demographics
Allow her to win. She has been accident prone have the voters noticed if so do they worry. I heard about an issue at Janalli where she has not supported the locals. Will she lose?
Hrr

She hasn’t done nearly enough damage to become a Herschel Walker or a Kari Lake despite them all being controversial candidates themselves.

Barry Collier should have put his hand up one last time. He would win here. And it would get Eleni out of parliament because once she leaves, the Liberals won’t select her again. It becomes dangerous when bad local members consistently get re-elected.

Labor needs younger voters to back them overwhelmingly and not lose the 35+ voters who backed them previously. The younger generations have surely shifted Australia further away from conservatism (look at the recent U.S midterms because it happened there as well)

As long as the Liberal party don’t care about younger voters such as myself, they have no business being in government. And needless to say I am not happy with Labor either, but I can’t stand the Greens.

Does the quality of councillors from the same party in the area help Petinos? Have lived in Miranda for a few years and always had really good experiences with the Sutherland Shire Councillors (like Haris Strangas who I have dealt with and would personally much rather be voting for in Miranda). Both the labor and liberal councillors are seen regularly in Miranda.

Barry Collier shifts approx10% of the liberal vote to the alp. He will not stand as I think he has other things to do. If he were to stand.. then the issue becomes how long will you stay.. will you recontest. I think the probable result is liberal retain by say 10%

Sorry I meant 2%

Apparently Scott Young wanted to contest here instead of Kogarah. Which should be granted. Something on pollbludger about the fact he has little chance of winning Kogarah and wants to run in a seat he is more likely to win. Why are the liberals not putting him here? The imbecile incumbent MP needs to go and I really hope she losses.

She is Craig Kelly 2.0

She could lose but more likely she does what Tudge did in vic..just keep out of sight and hope the normal pro liberal lean and the existing margin allows her to retain. She has offered locals in different parts of the electorate. But she is due a trip to icac in the near future.. post the election.

Should be offended locals

Liberal hold, the margin here is to high to overcome & the demographic trend is favouring the LNP here & will continue to do so in foreseeable future.

This seat has become a lot wealthier in the last twenty years, full of unfavourable demograhics for Labor – white, wealthier boomers who own big houses. It’s honestly amazing that the Labor party ever held it, if not for Barry Collier they never would have got close. Liberal retain.

Agree LD, The shire was once Mortgage belt which made it more favourable for Labor but not any more. Also these days tradespeople are generally self-employed hence no longer unionized so more favourable to the Libs.

@ Nimalan so your saying they came to their senses?

@ Ben
Interesting question. I may leave that for others to come to their conclusion what i would say is that that this reverse of Trump phenomenon where areas that declined with the loss of industry due to globalization went towards him. In that case, the middle class had shrunk whereas in areas such in Hughes, Casey etc the drift towards the Libs long term is showing that the middle class has expanded. We need to remember that increasingly Middle class and White collar are not synonymous and made tradespeople now have a higher standard of living and would consider themselves to be middle class. In fact, at the recent Victorian state election i said the failure of the Victorian Liberals election by the suburb of Langwarrin. See my comments on the Hastings thread link below about that suburb. I am keen to hear your thoughts :).

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2022/hastings2022

Will Matt Kean be campaigning much in this electorate? I heard he used to drive down here quite a lot during the last term of parliament

The fact that this is extremely close raises questions on why Labor didn’t run Barry Collier as he almost certainly would have took this back on these results, or if Labor had spent more time here.

Liberal member should retire at the next election as she was clearly damaging and toxic here

Shades of Tudge

Labor ahead here again, this would be an upset if gained.

I’ll eat some crow here. Albeit I still find it doubtful that Petinos herself played a large role in the outsized swing (large across southern Sydney in general, but still noticeably bigger here). Rather, I would consider the strength of the Labor candidate (ran in Cook during the Federal election and seems to have built up some profile for himself) or if there could be something in the water that’s been leading to big swings against the Liberals in suburbs like those here.

On current count Labor holds 3 of the 4 seats with territory in the Shire. I think Libs will hang on here and maybe even in Holsworthy, but it would be quite something in what’s meant to be the post-teal Lib heartland.

If Simon Earle doesn’t make it he’s well positioned to have another go at Cook (by-election or otherwise).

My mistake, Libs are ahead in Holsworthy

Miranda being so close is not an unusual thing – Miranda has been held by the ALP in the past, in similar electoral conditions to now. The ALP won Miranda in the 1999 election when the 2PP was 56-44 ALP. It’s 55-45 this election.

It does challenge the psephological groupthink that the Sutherland Shire generally is the Liberals’ “new heartland”. Parts of it, for sure, but Sutherland Shire covers a decent amount of area and there is a diversity of areas within. For example, Sutherland and Miranda are noticeably different in character compared to Sylvania and Cronulla IMO – different mixes of wealth, occupation, education, ethnic background etc. The ALP won all the Sutherland Shire booths in Heathcote while Cronulla is still strong for the Liberals compared to the other Shire seats.

It’ll be interesting to see if this translates to the next federal election. A lot of the Sutherland Shire booths swinging to the ALP this election (up to 18-20% in areas like Como and Jannali) are in the federal seat of Hughes. The Liberals can’t be complacent in their metropolitan seats anymore.

Agree about the comments about the Sutherland Shire being a new heartland. A difference to the Teal seats in the North Shore/Northern Beaches and Eastern Suburbs is that the primary vote for Labor is much higher than the former areas and for the most part the Shire is Some variation of the middle class than Upper Class although there some very wealthy waterfront areas in the Shire as well such as Sylvania Waters, Yowie Bay etc. I still think Cook is unlikely for Labor given the Cronulla part of the Shire remains very strong for the Libs. Last Federal election was more a series of by elections rather than a classic change election the Liberal seats that were lost can be grouped into 3 Categories, Elite/Teal demographic (Including Boothby/Higgins), Chinese community seats and WA seats. Robertson is one exception that does not fall in any of these categories. Saturday’s NSW election was more a classic change election where the traditional bellwethers changed. I think if Miranda and Holsworthy remain Liberal they are number 1 target for Labor next election.

Matt Kean will be backing Petinos for the leadership if Eleni can hold on on the back of pre-polls.

Sutherland Shire is classic aspirational Howard heartland from the 90s/2000s
It may be changing with the younger population coming through, increased density and changed demographics from people moving in from other areas. Though wouldn’t expect much change for another election or 2

Labor slightly in front before prepoll, postal and absent votes are counted. I never saw this as a battleground seat pre-election.

The area is becoming more high density especially around Sutherland, Kirrawee and Miranda train stations. With migrants, renters and young, educated professionals moving in, it is challenging the electoral dynamics.

This seat was held by Labor pre-2011. I wouldn’t class this as a traditional Liberal heartland seat like Vaucluse or those north of Sydneh Harbour. Up until last Saturday night, I thought it would become a new Liberal heartland seat.

I would have thought that the main factor in this election result is the reported poor behaviour of the liberal party candidate rather than demographic changes

Labor going close here is an unusual thing. In recent times it has only happened while Barry Collier was the Labor candidate. Eleni alienated a lot of voters this reflected in the huge swing. Even if she retains this seat she has a trip to icac which could lead to a by-election

Confirmed as a LIB Retain

“I would have thought that the main factor in this election result is the reported poor behaviour of the liberal party candidate rather than demographic changes”

I think Petinos’ behaviour was a contributing factor, but there were big double digit swings to the ALP in the Sutherland Shire booths of Heathcote and Holsworthy as well. I don’t think there was a big demographic change as such, just a big voting shift to the ALP in the Shire for some reason. The Sutherland Shire might not be as wedded to the Liberal Party like it’s commonly believed.