Maroubra – NSW 2023

This seat intrigues me.

Despite its affluence, gentrification and ocean-front properties, both Maroubra and Kingsford-Smith (federal) are safe Labor seats. Labor’s PV is quite high, fetching between 40% and 60%. The Greens PV is under 20% at most booths. It isn’t turning Green or Liberal. This may be owing to blue-collar jobs near Port Botany as well as high portion of renters here.

Like Balmain and Drummoyne, Maroubra is by the water, has undergone de-industrialisation and has gentrified and become very affluent and its median house prices are more than double the Sydney median. All three seats used to be magnets for southern European migrants, and in Maroubra’s case, it’s mainly Greek migrants. All three were Labor heartland seats before 2011 but Balmain is safe Green and Drummoyne is safe Liberal.

I expect Labor’s seat-wide PV to return to 50%+ without an independent running.

There’s a lot of public housing in this seat and neighboring Heffron which could explain the high Labor vote + blue collar workers living in Port Botany

It could be the public housing estates scattered throughout. There are some anomalies. Daceyville, almost entirely public housing, and South Coogee, also a large public housing population, had amongst the highest Liberal PVs.

The electorate has a mix of different social classes. Even going a few streets, the socio-economic status of residents would change enormously.

Votante, Dan M,
Good points above and those seats are interesting comparison. I would say Balmain is an example of inner city gentrification whereas Drommoyne and Maroubra are more suburban gentrification so dont attract hipsters etc. I would also say in the case of Maroubra and Drommyne it was probably not where European migrants originally went but moved to maybe in the second generation or as they became more affluent and wanted larger houses/bigger blocks. For example many Italians went to Glebe etc then moved to Haberfield, Greeks went to Marrickville then moved to Earlwood, St George District. In a previous thread i compared Kingsford Smith to Gellibrand which is still strong for Labor. As you move away from the Pacific Ocean in this seat there is some areas that remain working class such as Hillsdale which is attract a lot of migrants even these days. Interestingly, Maroubra also has a significant Jewish community and has Synagogues and a Jewish school.

Good analysis Nimalan. Maroubra itself has strong working class roots with a Jewish and Eastern Orthodox community. Back in the post-war era, Greek migrants did come here but not as many as those who went to the Inner West or suburbs west of Port Botany.

Does the Greek community generally lean Labor or Lib? There seems to be a lot of variety in support for the major parties across different suburbs with equally large Greek community (think Earlwood, Sans Souci, Oakleigh, Templestowe etc.)

The Greek Community, like some of the Italian Community has tended to vote Labor-Right. A lot of them were working class but very socially conservative. The ones who moved to Australia tended to be socially conservative, due to their want to get away from the social unrest that was happening in Southern Europe during the Post-WW2 era, driven by constant domestic violence between the Communists and Fascists/Nazi Sympathizers.

I think it was one of the big demographic flips in 2011, was the way the ethnic vote went to the Liberal Party in South-west and Western Sydney. I mean, everything flipped in 2011 but that one flipped harder than most. I’ll try and find the source of that.