Manly – NSW 2023

The alp cannot win this seat
But an independent of some ilk
Can. If Labor polls more poorly this probably just means a higher vote for the independent or teal
This does not mean a certain liberal party win
With opv
You cannot compare in.the traditional way. It is like using the rules of checkers to assess 3d chess

Is there a teal running here? If so, the Labor candidate quitting would be good news for them as long as Labor runs dead and doesn’t find another candidate. But either way, I don’t expect the teals to do particularly well in NSW. The Victorian Libs are very much right wing populist like the federal Libs as compared to the more pragmatic NSW state branch. Yet, the teals couldn’t even win any seats in the Victorian state election. Yes there’s the argument that the Victorian Libs are in opposition so voters couldn’t punish them for the government’s problems unlike federally or in NSW but NSW has the OPV system which makes it exceptionally difficult for a teal to win since even federally they didn’t lead on primary votes and relied on strong preference flows.

Joelene Hackman is running as an independent with teal branding
I expect her to run second to the liberal member here who seems to have a positive profile in the electorate

Feels like the Hackman campaign has ramped up. It’s pretty slick.

Interestingly enough on a 2PP basis at the last federal election, the margin would be ALP 0.4%. Interesting Labor would have won this seat on the 2PP federally.

Uncertain

I’d take these 2PP Modeling with a grain of salt, given that there are so many variables that impact this number, especially with regards to Strategic Voting and the dominant party in the seat losing primary votes to the Independent/3rd Party.

I don’t think it is particularly helpful. Suggesting that Labor would be winning these seats based on the numbers impacted by Independents taking votes away to that effect is not accurate at all.

It’s not modelling Hawkeye, it the actual 2PP results from the federal transferred to the state seats at booth level. Whether primary votes are lost or not is pretty irrelevant, as 2PP or 2CP are obviously after preferences between just last two candidates (or the two in the count).

I’m certainly not saying that these state seats will be that close (there are many, many moving parts in any result, as you say) – others might be but when they say ” uncertain” I think they mean against the IND.

The 2PP shows one thing and one thing only – when it cam to a choice between LIB and ALP in the corresponding Federal seats, what was the result? The takeaway for me is that the Labor vote is higher than the media and IND boosters would like to have people believe.

Insider, are the 2PP figures you derived based on full preferential voting? Because if that is the case, then OPV will give greater advantage for the Liberals since preferences Labor to IND or vice versa are generally quite weak and usually <50% under OPV.

@Yoh An.

The 2PP figures anyone derives for a state seat from a Federal election result (not just me) use the AEC federal election data as the starting point, so of course, Yes, they are full preferential. I think we all realise that under OPV the exhaustion of votes means preference flows are lower.

I would be wary of assuming a fairly fixed range for preference flows under OPV though. The dynamics of individual seats can effect the flow and they can change across time, and across seats. In 2019, exhaust rate was very high in North Shore, and much less in Lane Cove. If an IND candidate wants to win, they need to encourage all non Liberal voters to make a preference. The best way to do this would be to get off the fence and recommend full preferences on their own how to vote card. If they agree with the policy platform of one side more than the other, I don’t see the problem. They all run far too scared of allegations they are a stalking horse for one side or the other – just say it’s not true. If you have a reputation for being truthful, then allegations like that should not bother you.

Is there anywhere where I can get TPP stats from the Federal Election for polling booths in IND v LNP/ALP seats like Warringah, Mackellar and Fowler? I can’t seem to find anything anywhere.

@Dan S

X-Post from North Shore 2023

Link: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-27966-Csv.htm

Two party preferred by polling place (Under First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred)

James Griffin is popular and is marketed well in Manly as doing a good job for his constituents. The issue for James is the Liberal Party / LNP brand, in possibly two areas:

1) The local issues on the Northern Beaches, which people will associate with Griffin and his party, (even if they are in say a neighbouring electorate):
– The ferry debacle
– The privatisation of the buses and the queues, delays and cancellations
– Manly losing its hospital – still a gripe on local social media forums
– NB Hopsital being sold to Healthscope and the issues that have occurred there
– Possibly Griffin’s association with Deves (he was pictured helping out for her campaign).

2) Party issues:
– Gladys and Barrilaro – ICAC and association with corruption
– Killing koalas
– Opening / permitting new gas and coal power stations (whilst actually being quite progressive renewable energy wise tbf…)
– PEP11 (even though Libs say they disagree with it, they possibly could have legislated and it would have been dead in the water…) – People don’t trust the party.
– How James votes with the party outside of his electorate – take say water register being anonymous
– Allocation of bushfire $’s
– Poles and wires
– Simply the association with Fed Lib / LNP – damage from Morrison et al.

James must be aware of the brand damage as he doesn’t have any of the Lib/LNP branding on his pamphlets?

James is very popular. Joeline is coming out of the traps now campaign wise and the electorate is progressive and quite informed, so, along with Zali and Sophie’s popularity at the Fed level): it might be a tight race and will certainly be a very interesting one to watch.

(I might be totally out on a couple of points above – always happy to be corrected if I am.)

Ooh, just up north from Manly the local mayor will be running as a (non teal) independent in Wakehurst…

Hi Tally-Ho – can fill you in on a couple of these:
1. The ferry situation is a win for Griffiths as he lobbied against the decision by Constance and was a vocal critical from the start to change the ferries. So this was actually a win for him.
2. Manly losing the hospital is a non issue now. There is no chance that the hospital would have ever been upgraded sufficiently.
3. NB Hospital wasn’t sold off completely and this is a constantly served misleading situation. Health scope has the operations of the hospital with the expectation of full public hospital operation. The land and the building is government-owned and the government dictates terms on the operation.
4. Deves is a non-issue. Griffiths did the obligatory support but everyone in the area knows he didn’t support her.

Ok – let’s get real here. Griffin and Deves could not be further apart politically.

On a positive note, Griffin can include in his/Govts northern beaches achievements;

1. A brand new hospital – I don’t think anyone gives a fig about ownership of it. It’s a world class facility.
2. On the old site, which has been totally preserved in public hands, the first ever 18-25 year old hospice to augment Bear Cottage – which interestingly 30 years ago was opposed by Peter McDonald/ David Barr – Joelene’s political heroes.
3. B-line buses and spoke and wheel services going to city every 4 minutes in peak.
4. New ferries and updated timetabling for fast ferry.

Most curious is your comment about poles and wires. This was a policy of premier Baird (the member for Manly) who took it to the 2015 election and won 75% of the 2pp vote in Manly. I struggle to see the unpopularity in it!!

Griffin wins 56/44.

The effect of teals on blue-ribbon Liberal seats is that it draws attention to small l-liberal policies and environmental issues or Nimby-ism. It also keeps hard right at bay. Katherine Deves may appeal to a rural or outer suburban electorate but not an affluent small-l liberal one.

The chances of teals winning here or anywhere are grossly overestimated. Not every teal independent candidate is the next Zali Steggall or Sophie Scamps.

I’m tipping Griffin wins. Won’t even be close.

So good to have so many indicators that Manly is in the balance. It has been proven that a sensible centre independent gets so much more done than a Liberal candidate who is hobbled by having to appease the Nationals. Joeline Hackman is a sensible, strong voice, hardworking and willing to stand up for the community.

After so much earlier speculation it can be observed that the campaign of the independent Joeline Hackman in Manly has gathered momentum & lots of positive recognition in recent weeks. The most imp point – she represents the community to parliament rather than representing a parliamentary party to the community. People are starting to love her. She is also strongly endorsed by Peter MacDonald & David Barr.

Buses are repeatedly cancelled, the private hospital pays just $1 pa (!) in rent to govt, ferries break down & cannot fit under bridges, housing in crisis. Liberals have failed us in so many ways.

Looks like we have got a number of Joelene Hackman Spammers coming onto the website.
I came across one of her campaign moments, one of the biggest cringe banner-waiving sessions in Dee Why, from the Council Car Park, right in front of everyone in line for the B-Line. Disregarding how cringe it was, the fact that they were trying to campaign against a sitting government in front of what has been one of the bigger success stories from the government is a bit of an own goal. I know this is a new area for Manly but that was painful to watch.

They appear to be having more success in Manly itself, through the Weekend Markets, which isn’t surprising. The problem is that they are going up against someone that would be identified as an ideal Teal candidate. AEForecasts still has Griffin in front but it is on a knife’s edge at this stage

I think “moderate” libs at a state level aren’t seen as negatively as their federal counterparts who did exactly nothing while the conservatives ran the show.
This makes it a harder task for the teals against moderate libs

The teals out in force claiming “community independent” status. whatever that trite nomenclature means. The same teals who did nothing (literally nothing) in Manly for 16 years, and (believe it or not) did not even support the building of Bear Cottage.
It’d be nice just once in a while, if they came on and confirmed that with Mike Baird/James Griffin as local MPs we have had built us a world class health facility, now have the B-Line, and had added an 18-25 year old hospice facility to Bear Cottage, just as an example of some achievements.
But no, it’s the same whinetahon, and an appreciation that Joelene will just be a repeat of the inertia we had from 1991-2007.

Loving some of the commentary here: “It has been proven that a sensible centre independent gets so much more done than a Liberal candidate who is hobbled by having to appease the Nationals”

What a sentence to type. Proven by who? And sensible centre, as distinct from a foolish centre candidate?

Anyway, Griffin is one of the most liberal (small l) Liberal pollies anywhere in Australia. If he goes down then maybe the Libs are shot for the long term in this part of the world. And they would have Abbott and Deves to blame.

Ballot Order:
IND (Altman)
IND (Hackman)
Greens (Le Roux)
SAP (Paletto)
AJP (Mason)
Labor (Thatcher)
Liberal (Griffin)

Ballot order is not good for Griffin.
Joelene has a lot of volunteers. I think that is a good indicator for support. Next to zero Lib volunteers about my area.

The Hackman supporters seem to be everywhere all the time. But I agree about James’. I never see any.

Interested to see how the early voting goes. Will they do exit polls ahead of election day?

Labor and Greens are putting Joeline Hackman second on their HTVs. No surprise. Labor and Greens tend to preference the teal second if there is one, before preferencing each other.

@ votante that’s a strategic preference because they want to ensure if their candidate doesn’t finish in the top 2 the teal will because if they preference each other first they will be up against the liberals at which point the liberals will win as the teal will have been knocked out early

This is a really unusual seat given the divergence of expected results:
AE Forecasts – LIB 1.0%
SportsBet – $1.55 LIB
TAB – $1.35 LIB

I’d probably say this is tilting Liberal but nothing more.

AE Forecasts has had a significant update over-night, with LIB now out to 1.4%. I think there is something floating around about the Teal Brand being damaged following the Climate 200 Letterbox Drop

Where do the AE Forecasts get their data? Unless it’s polling data, surely you have to take it all with a pretty large grain of salt…

I’ve read through their methodology. A combination of Polls (overall and seat-by-seat), coupled with modeling from the Booking Agencies.

I’m not buying it. They currently have ALP in Willoughby actually going backwards on the 2019 result. And that result had the IND already getting 10%, and Labor already losing 1.5% in that election when they would have got a swing to them without the IND running.
Similarly in North Shore, where there was already an IND on 20% last time. They seem to be factoring in a HEAP of tactical voting, that to the extent it may happen, may already have been embedded in the 2019 results

Realistically the only viable seat polls out there are held by the major parties. They won’t be giving them out.
And I’d even take their numbers with a grain of salt.