Londonderry – NSW 2023

Prue Car has been diagnosed with kidney cancer. 🙁

I wish her all the best and hope everything goes well. In terms of the election, if she does resign, the Libs will be see it as an opportunity since the redistribution put it into more Lib friendly rapidly growing areas.

Agree, Nicholas/ Dan M, Wish her all the best.

If Car resigns, I’d say this is the Liberal’s best chance of a pickup. The St Mary’s area swung >10% in some places (though that could just be due to a sophomore surge) & there are still inroads to be made in Marsden Park & the various rural booths. Considering the political environment, it probably won’t be a Liberal gain this cycle, but resources should be pumped here in 2027, especially if the Liberals want to establish themselves as a populist political party.

A shame to see Prue Car sick. One of the best performers from the Labor Side and well respected.

More recent articles about Prue Car suggest she’s hanging in there and intending to recontest. So ALP retain barring a tragedy.

Ideal target for the liberals the best defence is a good offence. The more time Labor spends defending the less they spend on attacking liberal seats

Totally agree with Hawkeye_au. Prue Car has fought and won against her illness which Im sure will make her even stronger and more determined come election time.

I expect that if Penrith is looking good on election night for the Coalition, so will Londonderry. One to watch as a surprise pick up for the Coalition. I would rate it as their best chance of a gain in the election (still only a slight chance).

Londonderry as a surprise Coalition pick up? That’s a pretty bold call. I’d be really shocked if there was just a swing to the Liberals here.

One Nation could take off more PVs from the Libs than from Labor, like at the federal election. Unlike the federal election, there’s OPV and most ON votes exhaust.

Yep, trust me, I would also be surprised. I did mention that this is still only a slight chance of occurring, reflecting Coalition’s slim chances in picking up any new seats. If they do however, I expect this is the one. My only reasoning is that the Federal booths overlaid throughout the division were quite strong for the Coalition in the Federal Election.

I will personally be devastated if Car loses her seat, but I do think it’s a possibility people are underestimating. Londonderry is a Liberal seat on federal figures.

i do indeed think it is possible for Londonderry to be an upset Liberal gain. I would say generally Londonderry contains the poorest parts of Penrirth LGA such as St Marys and hence stronger for Labor than the other two Penrirth LGA seats. However, the Growth areas of this seat such as Jordan Springs, Marsden Park and Caddens have the potential to make a difference if the Libs can get a strong result here. One point of caution is the Federal results. I agree the Libs got a swing to them in Lindsay against the national and state trend. However, there is one part of Penrith LGA which is forgotton in the post 2022 election narrative which is the part in McMahon (St Clair/Erksine Park) where Labor got a swing to them and won all booths. That makes me feel that an incumbency and quality of the local MP affected the swing. Another comparison was the seat of La Trobe at a federal level which turned out to an unexpected success for the Libs but these results were not replicated at a state level in seats such as Bass/Pakenham

@Nimalan

Agree with your analysis as usual. Though I would point out a potential counterargument to your point about St Clair and Erskine Park is that these suburbs are quite different to the rest of Penrith LGA, especially to the St Marys area.

I think incumbency did make a fairly substantial difference in the Federal results within the different parts of the electorate. I wouldn’t consider this to be one of the most possible target seats for the Liberals in this election – certainly not above a new seat with a rapidly growing mortgage belt like Leppington or one with an incumbent Liberal like Heathcote. Not that there’s much choice available for the Liberals but Prue Car’s profile and ongoing battle against cancer should leave this secure. In a future election though it would definitely be on the cards.

Marsden Park also is a rapidly developing part of this electorate which swung substantially to Labor during the Federal election.

Question what was the federal vote here? Prue will easily hold

@ Nicholas
Fair point about those suburbs. i agree very different to St Marys areas. However, i feel the most desirable suburbs in Penrith LGA are Leonay and Glenmore Park. with St Clair and Erskine Park somewhere in the middle between St Marys and Leonay. Anyway i am not as familiar with the area so i am happy to be corrected. Also what do feel would be a Melbourne equivilant of Penrith LGA?

Yes, you are right about Leonay and Glenmore Park. Though the most desirable suburb in Penrith LGA is almost certainly Luddenham, particularly the Twin Creeks estate. 😉

https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-acreage-size-2000-in-luddenham,+nsw+2745/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&source=refinement

I wish there was a polling place there so we can see how these people vote!

Good question about a Melbourne equivalent of Penrith LGA. Probably not anywhere in the east (which is the part of Melbourne I’m most familiar with). I’m tempted to say Frankston but I could be very wrong there.

@ Nicholas, Yes some really nice properties in Luddenham on that link. I did nt actually know anything about Luddenham. Agree wish more polling booths so we can better analyse results at a granular level. Frankston is an a possible comparison. You could say Frankston North is like St Marys deprived area, Carrum Downs like Oxley Park/Colyton typical working class areas, Langwarrin like Glenmore Park above average incomes but very suburban tradie suburb, Frankston South like Leonay favourable natural geography and Langwarrin South like Luddenham acreages homes. One caveat is that Frankston is not a growth area. The City of Casey is also a potential comparision being very socially mixed like Penrith with Doveton on one end and Lysterfield South/Narre Warren North being like Luddenham. The City of Casey is a growth area but is much more ethnically diverse than Penrith.

Worth pointing out that Marsden Park voted 68% for Car (2PP), a swing of 22%.

@Nicholas, I wonder if there will be similar Labor numbers in rapid growth areas of Queensland with similar dwelling profiles like the Ripley Valley as just one example.

The point about Marsden Park is that the community felt very let down by the government on service delivery, and that’s what I’d attribute most of the swing too. They were promised a bus service that wasn’t delivered until years later. Same with a new school, where children who were enrolled were instead made to attend a nearby (highly overcapacity) school. The government has neglected extending the metro line to Marsden Park. And so on. Prue Car effectively represented residents on these issues.

Generally, new suburban areas tend to be quite marginal. I certainly wouldn’t expect a new suburb to vote almost 70% in either direction under “normal” circumstances.

@SEQ Observer the residents of the ripley valley are a lot more anglo than londonderry and marsden park so i can’t imagine such large 2pp results for labor as we have seen tonight in londonderry. however i think the region will shift considerably towards labor in the long-term, and the rapid population growth will probably force the federal electorate of blair to consolidate around ipswich in future redistributions and ultimately strengthen the labor vote.

@Louis good points.

Would argue however that Ripley Valley and lookalike regions in Queensland are similarly under-serviced like Marsden Park as @Nicholas mentions. Unable to keep up with the rapid growth. Yarrabilba and Jimboomba are ones I’d identify as not having enough schools to cater for the large amount of school-aged children for example.

One of the demographic factors at play across Australia is that the housing affordability issue has pushed young families out into under-serviced areas far from the established business districts. These areas top the list of population increase due to natural births.

In the same voting booth, the gap between federal (Lindsay) and state (Londonderry) 2PP vote is up to 15-20% now. It shows the power of incumbency and personal votes in this area. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next federal election though.