ALP 17.6%
Incumbent MP
Paul Lynch, since 1995.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South-Western Sydney. The seat covers the Liverpool CBD and parts of the City of Liverpool to the west of the Liverpool centre, including the suburbs of Ashcroft, Cartwright, Green Valley, Hinchinbrook, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park, Miller and Warwick Farm.
Redistribution
The western end of the electorate shifted north, losing Carnes Hill, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park and West Hoxton to Leppington, and gaining Cecil Hills and Elizabeth Hills from Mulgoa and Bonnyrigg Heights and part of Bonnyrigg from Cabramatta. These changes increased the Labor margin from 16.7% to 17.6%.
The electoral district of Liverpool has existed since the 1950 election. It has always been held by the Labor Party.
The seat was first won in 1950 by then-Premier James McGirr. He had sat in the Legislative Assembly since 1922, most recently as Member for Bankstown.
McGirr retired in 1952, and the Liverpool by-election was won by Jack Mannix. He became a minister in the Labor government in 1960, serving as Justice Minister until the government’s defeat in 1965.
Mannix retired in 1971, and he was replaced by Liverpool councillor George Paciullo. Paciullo served as a minister from 1983 to 1988. When Labor lost power in 1988 he was considered a contender for party leader, but following Carr’s appointment, he retired in 1989.
The 1989 by-election saw a bitter preselection battle between Paul Lynch and Mark Latham. This was resolved by preselecting former Health Minister Peter Anderson. Anderson had held Nepean from 1978 to 1981, and Penrith from 1981 until a shock loss at the 1988 election. He had held ministerial office since 1982.
Anderson won the by-election in 1989, and was considered a possible future leader of the ALP. He failed to gain the support of local Labor members, and in 1995 lost preselection to Paul Lynch.
Lynch won the seat in 1995, and has been re-elected six times. Following the 2007 election he was appointed as a minister in the Labor government. Lynch served as a minister until the 2011 election.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Paul Lynch is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Liverpool is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Lynch | Labor | 26,141 | 55.6 | -4.6 | 55.1 |
| Paul Zadro | Liberal | 12,692 | 27.0 | +3.3 | 26.1 |
| Signe Westerberg | Greens | 2,421 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 5.4 |
| Michael Andjelkovic | Independent | 3,274 | 7.0 | +7.0 | 4.7 |
| Ravneel Chand | Keep Sydney Open | 1,256 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 1.7 |
| Adam Novek | Conservatives | 1,251 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 1.6 |
| Others | 5.2 | ||||
| Informal | 2,700 | 5.4 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Lynch | Labor | 27,951 | 66.7 | -4.2 | 67.6 |
| Paul Zadro | Liberal | 13,945 | 33.3 | +4.2 | 32.4 |
Booths in Liverpool have been split into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.5% in the west to 75.5% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 61.5 | 17,048 | 35.4 |
| East | 70.8 | 5,933 | 12.3 |
| Central | 75.5 | 5,527 | 11.5 |
| Pre-poll | 72.6 | 10,557 | 22.0 |
| Other votes | 66.5 | 9,025 | 18.8 |
Election results in Liverpool at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and independent candidates.
The Sydney Morning Herald reported this morning that Liverpool Councillor Charishma Kaliyanda has been preselected to replace Paul Lynch MP
She ran in Holsworthy in 2019.
For a mp that has been in parliament since 1995 lynch has been very low profile suddinly he is makeing a big deal about the liver pool liberal cowncils appointment of john ajacka former liberal mp to gm of cowncil but he did not even give a validictory speech was shadow aterney general for 11 years but made no impact
part of the fergeson cfmeu block that got up cameron merthey at labor conference lynch came to fame after brogdons death seems very low profile
Aaron, are you referring to former premier John brogden because I read that he hasn’t died unless it is another brogden you are talking about.
John Brogden did attempt suicide once if that is what you are referring to aaron
I think he’s referring to John Ajaka, who was an MLC until last year but has just recently been appointed as general manager of the City of Liverpool.
Massive swing to the Libs here unlike literally every seat in Sydney (except Cabramatta but that could be due to the Kate Hoang’s votes exhausting) . Of course like in those seats in northern and western Melbourne, still not enough to unseat Labor.
It probably is exhaust. Is there that much residual anger at Labor running Keneally?
Perhaps all my political realignment braying only applies to this area specifically and it’s a much more complex narrative than “outer suburbs are moving right”. As another commenter pointed out (forgot who and where), Vic Labor copped swings against them in working class outer suburbs in the North and West, but not the southeast.
Yes, I noticed the unusually large swing to the Liberals here. Anyone with local knowledge care to explain what happened in this electorate?
The state’s biggest 2PP swing TO the LNP at 8%. I was curious about this massive swing and I hypothesised a bit in the Cabramatta thread, which also had a huge swing to the LNP.
The political realignment theory could explain part of it. After all, Cecil Hills and Elizabeth Hills saw 7% to 9% swings to Labor. Both suburbs are way better off socioeconomically than the rest of the electorate. On the flipside, there were double digit swings TO the Liberals in Miller, Cartwright and Sadleir – all suburbs with lots of public housing.
The Dai Le effect and distrust of Labor after the Kristina Keneally parachuting failure might explain Labor’s drop in 2PP in the eastern part i.e. Liverpool and Warwick Farm and yet an independent scored really well. People were perhaps turned off by the Labor brand.
There were also substantial swings to the Liberals in the Liverpool booths of Holsworthy. I suggest the popularity of the Liberal mayor of Liverpool as a possible contributing reason to the Liberal swing in Liverpool.
All good points above. I really think Labor should not have left the Cabramatta/Fairfield preselection to the last minute it may have fed perception they were secretly looking to parachute someone. These seats are Labor’s crown jewels and along with the Illawara and Hunter part of Labor’s heartland. With respect to Liverpool LGA i think it maybe correct with something unique why Labor is underperforming it would be also good to look at Leppington and Macquarie Park as well as some of those booths are in Liverpool LGA. Labor is also underperfoming at a Federal Level in Werriwa when contrasted to similar socially mixed electorates such as McMahon, Macarthur and Greenway. In terms of those public housing estate suburbs such as Miller, Cartwright they are some of the most deprived suburbs but then we have Claymore and Airds where Labor got 88.5% and 90.5% of the TPP so that should be factored into also in Wiley Park and Lakemba working class ethnic suburbs Labor got 91% and 86% (Hampden Park PS) TPP so if other areas in Sydney which are simmilar are behaving differently this needs to be looked. Labor also got strong swings them in areas like Bidwell as well.
The Liberals seem to be doing better in this area than ever before, interesting given it’s quite a multicultural area and it’s always voted Labor.
The Liverpool City Council is Liberal-controlled and has a Liberal Mayor who I believe is very popular as there has been a lot of investment around Liverpool by the council and the state government in the past decade. The Liberal Party achieved big swings here on the federal (Fowler) and state (Liverpool) level and they already do well in Chipping Norton (Fowler/Holsworthy) and Holsworthy is a Liberal seat. Liverpool is one of the few areas where the Liberals actually did better in 2023 than they did in 2011 (albeit not by a great lot).
My understanding is there are also growing housing estates down in Liverpool. Liverpool is more built up now too and it’s not like how it used to be (i.e a typical low-income multicultural area with gangs).
I think one day this could be a Liberal seat.