Leppington – NSW 2023

so if camden cowncil is not fixing thwe lepington school that would be bad news for the mayor who is running its a liberal dominated cowncil

Schools are a State issue, not a Council issue. It is not the council’s responsibility to fix the school

so its the nsw government fault then so sarah mitchel failed on fixing this school like carselehill high school problims

this should be a interesting seat to watch with half the seat being in labor aerias and other in liberal parts

this seat withsome parts labor and others liberal

how are both candadates traviling latily

I think this will go to Labor.
AE Forecasts – LAB 5.1%
Sportsbet – LAB $1.20
TAB – LAB $1.22

I don’t think the Liberal Party are paying much attention into Leppington anymore.

@hawkeye agreen but t will be marginal minns isnt cutting through enough. the liberal party is on the deathbed but perrotet is keeping them on life support. minns not able to close the deal and pull the plug. i predict labor minority but will need all 3 greens. wagga and rural independants will be mad to give them confidence and supply. not unless they want to do a windsor/oakshott. sydney and lake macquarie independants wont be enough simpl y cant see the 9 seats net gain. goulbur will swing back upper hunter wil too theyd need a 9% swing to get what they need im predicting 3-4 maybe 5% max might be a couple outliers but libs will have sandbagged enough seats in my opinion theres not the same strong anti-liberl sentinemnt here was at the federal level perrotet isnt detested from what i can tell enough to warrant such a strong anti-liberal vote wouldnt be surprised if they swing a few seats back maybe even take 1 . federal labor only managed 4 seats in nsw i think. dont expect a result satuday night unless labor + greens can govern without independants.

this anon poasters spelling is very hard to understand how would Tuckerman get a swing in Golbbern she may be a good local memberer but she is not as high profile as Tuckermann and nover leader has realy campaigned in upper hunterniver leader is realy cutting threw perottit is not realy

perottit and kean made several visets to this seat with Fidelley but aparently she does not campaign much any other time the labor candadate Hegarty is running a much better campaign then his run for mayor of liverpool

have the liberals given up in this seat

it seems like labor can win hear

I read in the SMH that in Werriwa (the equivalent federal electorate) in 2022, ONP/LDP/UAP’s combined PV was well above 20%. As in many western Sydney seats, there was a drop in both the Liberal and Labor PVs but Labor’s 2PP either remained the same or even increased. I’m not saying it’ll happen again and I doubt the 20% PV for the “Freedom parties” in Leppington at the state election. Covid and lockdowns should be in the rear view mirror now.

One Nation is targeting western Sydney and take a chunk out of Labor and split the right-wing vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if they come third on PVs. Those who voted for Christian or conservative parties will flock to ONP. Most ONP votes exhaust and so very few votes will flow to the Liberals.

I’m tipping Labor wins.

@Votante Ben covered this with Kevin Bonham quite well in his podcast the other day. But Christian conservative voters don’t generally flock to or direct their preferences to ONP as much as you’d expect and they kind of end up being disparate voting blocs. Even though there might be some alignment on social-conservative issues, their backgrounds differ considerably and each are politically animated for different reasons.

Some writers who have looked at the ONP vote in their previous heyday in the 90s noted that they are fairly irreligious, for example, rarely or never attend church. They do not have a high educational attainment. Often come from an economically disadvantaged background and/or have been adversely affected by late-stage Capitalism. And they are politically animated by “feeling abandoned” by the Labor and/or Liberal parties.

Your Christian right voter by contrast is obviously more religious and regularly attends Church. Comes from a more affluent or advantaged background. And is not as animated by political issues like migration or multiculturalism. They are instead more politically animated by their religion and faith.

Agree though that these votes will have a high exhaust rate.

@SEQ Observer, I was meant to say that some, not all, of those who voted for Christian Democrats or Conservatives last time will flock to One Nation as its the only right-wing minor party. I agree with your point. I just didn’t word it the righ way.

You make some really valid points. I also think that One Nation is doubling down here to attract those who may be economically disenfranchised or disadvantaged and feel left behind by the major parties and hence centralising efforts here in SW Sydney.

Have lived in Leppington my entire life, and have found this reshuffle out of Camden electorate into this weird gerrymandered starfish electorate to be very perplexing.
It’s the ex-Camden third of this electorate that is going to decide it. Carnes Hill third of the electorateis dead Liberal (Manoun’s stranglehold), Campbelltown third of the electorate is dead Labor (Greg Warren is deservedly popular), so even is even, and really these two areas cancel each other out to become irrelevant.

So looking at who is standing.
Labor candidate Nathan Hagarty lives local, is active on the community pages on FB, and just gets stuff done (if you email about a pothole, he arranges it to get fixed), even when there’s no election looming. He stood for mayor of Liverpool, and should have won, but Manoun had the under the table tactics and manouvering down pat from his last mayorship. Manoun has not been seen since.
Liberal stood Therese Fedeli for Leppington, she’s the current mayor of Camden. Bad move, given how badly governed Camden is, and how under serviced it is in terms of community facilities and services. The other elephant in the room is her predecessor, Peter Sidgreaves, who surprised everyone by transitioning from mayor to state parliament with a bit of interesting manouvering and has managed to achieve so little that people have quite forgotten who he is. Nice enough bloke, but Camden has really slid into disarray during his tenure. Very few roads are drivable, wall to wall eave to eave housing, minimal public transport, no parking at the train station, no essential services (complete lack of working hospitals, etc), schools overcrowded with grounds full of demountables, millions handed out to private sports interests (Macarthur Bulls), public facilities handed over for management by private interests that then become inaccessible by the general public (the BMX track eg) and so on. The amount of money wasted on unusable sports grounds is quite ridiculous.
Everyone I spoke to could see what would happen if a Liberal candidate ended up as the Leppington incumbent.
So, no surprise where voters have put their trust.
Despite, to a GREAT GREAT GREAT extent, local voters not being your usual Labor voters – more reluctantly voting for something not like what we already have had to suffer in Camden.

aparently sidgreaves has lost camden and hegarty has picked up lepington

turns out sidgreaves islost camden and hagarty won hear