LIB 12.0%
Incumbent MP
Gareth Ward (Independent), since 2011.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South coast. Kiama covers Kiama local government areas and parts of the neighbouring Shellharbour and Shoalhaven council areas, along with a small peripheral part of the City of Wollongong. The seat stretches from Albion Park in the north to Bomaderry in the south.
The current incarnation of the electoral district of Kiama has existed since 1981, and has always been won by the ALP. There was a previous single-member district of Kiama from 1859 to 1904.
Kiama was created at the 1981 election. Throughout the 1970s Kiama had been part of the district of Wollondilly. The first member for Kiama was the ALP’s Bill Knott. Knott had been elected Member for Wollondilly in 1978. He moved to Kiama in 1981 and was re-elected in 1984. He retired on medical grounds in 1986.
The 1986 by-election was won by the Labor candidate, Shellharbour mayor Bob Harrison. He won re-election in 1991 and 1995, retiring in 1999.
Kiama was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Matt Brown. Brown was appointed a minister following the 2007 election. In September 2008, he was appointed Minister for Police in the first cabinet under new Premier Nathan Rees. Three days later he was forced to resign after revelations of his conduct at a party in his office. He returned to the backbench after his resignation.
At the 2011 election, Brown lost Kiama to Liberal candidate Gareth Ward with a 19.4% swing. Ward was re-elected in 2015 and 2019. Ward was appointed as a parliamentary secretary in 2015 and joined the ministry in 2019.
In 2021, Ward was identified as the subject of an investigation by the child abuse and sex crimes squad of the NSW Police. Ward moved to the crossbench at this time. Ward was charged with a number of offences in 2022.
Assessment
Kiama is difficult to pick. The sitting MP is contesting the seat as an independent. While he may have been affected by the allegations which triggered his move to the crossbench, he may well still have a personal vote from holding his seat for twelve years and apparently still maintains support in the local Liberal branches.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 26,230 | 53.6 | +2.0 |
| Andy Higgins | Labor | 13,803 | 28.2 | -3.9 |
| Nina Digiglio | Greens | 5,815 | 11.9 | +0.8 |
| John Kadwell | Christian Democrats | 1,671 | 3.4 | +0.3 |
| Anne Whatman | Sustainable Australia | 1,427 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Informal | 1,603 | 3.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gareth Ward | Liberal | 28,016 | 62.0 | +3.4 |
| Andy Higgins | Labor | 17,167 | 38.0 | -3.4 |
Booths in Kiama have been split into three parts according to local government boundaries: Albion Park (covering Shellharbour council area booths), Kiama and Shoalhaven.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three electorates, ranging from 53% in Albion Park to 67% in Shoalhaven.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.8% in Albion Park to 14.9% in Kiama.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shoalhaven | 14.1 | 67.3 | 11,092 | 22.7 |
| Kiama | 14.9 | 61.6 | 7,702 | 15.7 |
| Albion Park | 8.8 | 53.2 | 6,447 | 13.2 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 63.1 | 16,278 | 33.3 |
| Other votes | 14.0 | 59.6 | 7,427 | 15.2 |
Election results in Kiama at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Votante, I actually think the Liberals can fall under 20% here, for are a start, even ”rusted on” Liberals know that Gibbons is not a typical Liberal candidate as she was parachuted in for a cozy ministerial job. And most Liberals in this seat still support Ward, so why wouldn’t they support him? They know Ward is still a Liberal at heart and when acquitted would likely rejoin the party room or at least back them in a minority government in future.
Gibbons losing is enough to satisfy me tomorrow night, regardless of who wins the state election.
Prediction: Independent Retain/Win
Daniel, I agree with some of your reasoning but not what you believe as corruption in picking the candidate.
They selected gibbons because they needed someone to run and had no candidates. I don’t think they even thought they would win Kiama hence the late selection.
It really think it has nothing to do with a ministerial position.
The reason I believe they ran Gibbons is because they thought they had a shot at winning, and it is even evident in the comment section that not everyone believes Ward will easily get over the line. and even AEF has Gibbons favored. that is why I believe they picked her, they chose a seat where she would have the best shot of winning (That there already wasn’t a candidate pre-selected at the time)
I’m sure there was a little known Liberal resident who opposed Ward who they could have ran, even a candidate like the one they are running in Balmain, a little known teenager/young adult, could have been used as a ”fill in”
another reason they could be running Gibbons is to increase the Legislative Council vote, But either way it will backfire on them like it backfired on Mundine, and Keneally for Labor.
Again, I agree with some of what you argue.
My point would be that it’s about trying to win the seat/have a candidate rather than try to get her a ministers salary.
@Daniel T, I was just skeptical of the suggested 40% swing in PV away from the Liberals. I agree that Keneally was a parachuted candidate, sent to a safe seat specifically to get a lower house seat, but that backfired. There wasn’t an independent that split the centre-left vote. Also, Labor’s PV dropped by 19% but still came first in PVs.
I mentioned before that there’s a path for all three (IND, LIB, ALP) to snatch the seat and it’s possibly the only one, if not one of a few, three-cornered contests. I rate Gibbons’s chances very low though.
She does look like a “seat shopper” though she was pushed around by the Liberal Party. She planned to run for Hughes at the last federal election. Dom Perrottet persuaded her to stay in Holsworthy but then lost preselection. She then got parachuted into Kiama.
@votante she was ousted in holsworthy due to losing pre selection and they needed a candidate since they couldnt get anyone other then a gareth ward supporter locally
Absolutely laughable that Gibbons came 4th behind the Greens! Good riddance.
Labor could still beat Ward here and take this.
actualy gibbins realy pulled out of federal preselection due to not having the nublers desbite morrisons backingthe local moderit faction leaders nsw aterney general mark speakman and former mp lea evans backed jenny were then gibens lost both holesworvy preselection a long with upper house then perottit forced the liberals to select her hear desbite twice being rejected
with some of the closer seats heading back to the libs as postal votes get counted it could be that Labor winning Kiama is what gives them 48 seats and a clear majority
Greens are back to 4th. Good riddance.
Antony Green said on Twitter from his sources Gareth Ward will retain Kiama. Really hard to see Labor getting a majority if they don’t win Kiama.
im ready to call Kiama for Ward
Kiama has been formally called for Ward by the ABC.
This almost confirms that Labor will not have a majority.
@Mick Quinlivan care to offer your insights on the results of this seat?
This result more than anything has me worried for a Trump victory in 2024 even if he loses the primaries. Scandals don’t have the effect the media and the left (myself included) thinks they do. Looks like supporters of Ward (and Troy Bell before him) double down when they’re told by capital city newspapers that the person they voted for is no good.
Very surprised only 1 in 5 conservative voters remained loyal to the brand. I don’t think anyone mistook Ward for a teal.
Ward was helped by the liberal party.. they effectively ran dead. Chose a candidate from outside the area who was picked at the last minute. The liberals showed a lack of Moral courage in doing this. To have not run or to have preferenced Ward were only slightly less bad choices.
The Libs were being tactical here.
Option 1 – run a genuine Lib candidate and split the vote, letting Labor win the seat.
Option 2 – run dead, allowing Ward a shot at winning the seat, in the knowledge that he’ll probably be convicted and have to vacate, then giving the Libs a head-to-head with Labor that they’ll likely win.
They took Option 2.
Ward is innocent until proven guilty and should not be suspended from parliament until he has been proven guilty. He was elected, and the people want him to sit in parliament, the major parties trying to block him are against democracy.
Even when acquitted, he might not want to rejoin the party he was once a member of because of the treatment of him, he can continue to run as an independent at every election and will receive strong support.
Depressing result.
Option 2 is gutless
I assume that there is no rule against MPs facing serious criminal charges sitting in parliament
I don’t think option 2 has the happy ending they might expect. Just remember that Kiama has traditionally been a Labor seat and they have a strong candidate who will likely recontest. I’m sure Constance will try and parachute in here next.
Parliament should be very reticent to start suspending members for any reason. Does the next member who gets done for drink driving get suspended? Or a speeding fine? Or grossly immoral but not illegal behavior? Also while the Police and DPP are notionally independent they “report” to the executive government. Therefore, it is not beyond the realms of possibility for someone to be falsely charged at the “direction” of the executive, suspended from parliament and the executive’s number improve.
It is also important to remember that Politicians are office holders not employees or contractors. They are appointed to their office by the people. The way politicians should be removed from their office are the people who elect them. Indeed, if a person is imprisoned and the voters elect them the voters have made a decision and that is that. While it is unlikely that someone in jail would get elected in NSW (probably prohibited from running), it has happened in the US and the UK (Sinn Fein I believe). Cue jokes about the politician who was doing two terms at once.
Given the voters of Kiama have re-elected Ward with full knowledge of the charges against him I would be very disappointed if he was not permitted to take his seat.
He can hold his seat as long as there’s no conviction against him. Federally, you lose your seat if convicted of something that carries a sentence of at least 1 year.
In NSW, the law is that you lose your right to sit in parliament if convicted of something with a sentence of 5 years or more… or an “infamous crime”. “Infamous crime” being defined as something that is “contrary to the faith credit and trust of mankind”, or in other words, more about whether it offends public decency rather than a specific length of sentence.
I don’t know for sure if sexual assault counts, but either way, if he were to go to prison, I’m guessing his seat would be vacated…
Extraordinary results here looking at all the match ups. Because Ward’s voters tended to just vote 1, Labor won the 2PP vs Libs 69.73%. This is a 31.74% swing, which is very rare (though NSW has had larger, like Bathurst 2011’s 36.7% swing against Labor).
Also interestingly the Liberals lost every match up. The Greens and even Sustainable Australia beat the Liberals in the 2CP matchups.