LIB 6.2%
Incumbent MP
Melanie Gibbons, since 2011.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South-west Sydney. Holsworthy covers south-eastern parts of the City of Liverpool and a small north-western part of Sutherland Shire. Holsworthy covers Alfords Point, Barden Ridge, Chipping Norton, Holsworthy, Lucas Heights, Lurnea, Moorebank, Wattle Grove and part of Menai.
Redistribution
Holsworthy shifted further into the Sutherland Shire and out of the City of Liverpool, gaining Alfords Point from Miranda and parts of Menai from Heathcote. Holsworthy lost Prestons to Leppington and Casula to Macquarie Fields. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 3.3% to 6.2%.
History
Menai was first created at the 1999 redistribution. The seat was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Alison Megarrity with a 4.2% margin. She was re-elected in 2003 with an increased 9.5% margin.
In 2007, Megarrity won a third term, but with a reduced 2.7% margin.
In 2011, Megarrity retired and Liberal candidate Melanie Gibbons won Menai with a huge 27% swing. Gibbons was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Melanie Gibbons is running for the seat of Kiama after losing preselection.
- Tina Ayyad (Liberal)
- Mick Maroney (Labor)
- Deborah Swinbourn (Independent)
- Chris Kerle (Greens)
- James Ingarfill (One Nation)
Assessment
Holsworthy is held by a not insignificant margin but could be in play, especially considering Gibbons’ involuntary removal from the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 21,481 | 44.5 | -5.0 | 47.3 |
| Charishma Kaliyanda | Labor | 18,152 | 37.6 | +1.2 | 35.2 |
| Michael Byrne | One Nation | 3,905 | 8.1 | +8.1 | 6.9 |
| Chris Kerle | Greens | 2,191 | 4.5 | +0.0 | 4.6 |
| Gae Constable | Animal Justice | 1,901 | 3.9 | +3.9 | 3.6 |
| Roland Barber | Liberal Democrats | 614 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.0 |
| Others | 1.4 | ||||
| Informal | 2,256 | 4.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Melanie Gibbons | Liberal | 22,861 | 53.3 | -3.4 | 56.2 |
| Charishma Kaliyanda | Labor | 20,042 | 46.7 | +3.4 | 43.8 |
Booths in Holsworthy have been split into three parts. Polling places in the Sutherland Shire have been grouped as “east”. Polling places in the City of Liverpool have been split by the Georges River into “central” and “west”.
There is a great deal in difference in two-party-preferred votes between these three areas. The Liberal two-party-preferred vote was 69.5% in the east and 60.1% in the centre, while Labor won 60.2% in the west.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 3.2% in the east to 8.3% in the centre.
| Voter group | ON prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 8.3 | 60.1 | 16,394 | 34.4 |
| West | 6.9 | 39.8 | 8,282 | 17.4 |
| East | 3.2 | 69.5 | 8,194 | 17.2 |
| Other votes | 7.7 | 53.8 | 8,211 | 17.2 |
| Pre-poll | 7.2 | 52.7 | 6,586 | 13.8 |
Election results in Holsworthy at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Tony Abbott at prepoll today suggests that the Libs are very concerned about this seat.
@Grady Seasons.
Tony Abbott? At which prepoll?
We know John Howard comes out every election but I’m surprised about Tony Abbott – he isn’t remembered as fondly as JH is.
@ Brady the fact that Tony abbot is there means it’s probably safe. Given the lefts hatred of him they would keep him away if it was in trouble. @ votante exactly they bring out little Johnny when they’re in trouble the fact abbot was allowed or even came on his own accord means they aren’t worried. Case in point the NSW liberal launch.
@Votante it was Wattle Grove Community Hall. You and me both surprised
Dominic Perrottet at prepoll today (Wattle Grove Community Hall) again suggests that the Libs are concerned about this seat.
The swings have been interesting in this seat – big swings to the Liberals at the Liverpool end of the seat, but big swings to the ALP elsewhere. Ayyad is the wife of the Liberal Mayor of Liverpool and he seems to be quite popular locally and this has spread to the state seats – there were also swings to the Liberals in the seat of Liverpool itself. Outside of Liverpool though, there have been up to 22% swings elsewhere (like at Lucas Heights near Menai).
It is interesting to consider whether Ayyad winning preselection has helped or hindered the Liberal vote in this seat. Regardless, it’s a tight marginal seat again and low hanging fruit for the ALP next time.
Holsworthy confirmed as a Lib Retain by the ABC