Heathcote – NSW 2023

Since no-one has commented here yet, I will start off by suggesting that this seat could be in play, even being favoured to be ‘retained’ by the Liberals if Lee Evans recontests.

Whilst it has absorbed some Labor leaning areas of Wollongong (Bulli and neighbouring suburbs), I feel that the Wollongong area itself has the potential to lose its natural Labor lean. I think a local independent Gordon Bradbery already serves as Mayor with council split between Labor and his ‘conservative’ leaning group. Also, the transformation of this area from industrial hub to a bedroom community of Sydney will change it to a swing like region.

I see Wollongong and the wider Illawarra region being similar to the Sunshine Coast part of Queensland, once a regional/rural area but now transformed into a somewhat commuter belt region that is still popular as a tourist hotspot.

Yoh An, There is no way the Liberals get a swing to them here when there is almost certainly going to be a statewide swing to Labor of more than 4% in the Marginals.

Illawara is trending away from the Liberals and they couldn’t even win Gilmore with Andrew Constance.

Fair point Daniel, but I was only suggesting that Heathcote and the inner parts of the Illawarra (only up to Wollongong) could be in play due to their swing like status.

Also, Gilmore is considered the outer Illawarra and not at all part of the Sydney ‘commuter belt’. That area would be akin to somewhere like Gympie-Wide Bay being far away from the state capital.

Also, there is uncertainty as to whether Labor can generate a 4-5% statewide swing. Whilst Chris Minns appears credible as leader, NSW residents (especially those in Sydney) may be frustrated with ongoing antics of local unions to engage in so called ‘disruption’ or stalling tactics.

There was a modest swing to Labor in the Wollongong part of this electorate, even with the retirement of a long-serving incumbent.

(in the federal election)

Latest polling from Guardian/Essential seems to suggest that the most likely situation will be a Hung Parliament, especially with the impact of OPV.
The Coalition still leads Labor on currently polling, with about 16% undecided or voting for a Minor Party. My money is that we are going to see an even bigger Cross-Bench than before, with the Balance of Power probably held by SFF.

Nicholas, if that is true then even the residential parts of Wollongong closest to the Sydney metro area are still quite strong for Labor and behave differently from nearby areas like Sutherland Shire/Georges River.

Therefore it shows that the region still maintains some form of distinct identity from its principal capital city, unlike Brisbane and its neighbouring regions that behave more like a single urban conglomerate, with Sunshine coast area well connected with nearby communities in Moreton Bay council.

As someone that lives in the Northern suburbs of Wollongong who has been redistricted into Heathcote I’ll say a few things.

– The northern suburbs strongly see ourselves as Wollongong people rather than Sydney people. Lee Evans will have to make sure he is seen as having plans for the northern suburbs but also services we access in Wollongong.

– From my anecdotal evidence I think you’ll see a swing away from the Liberals in our area, probably smaller swing than at the Federal level. In a seat that is already notionally Labor I think it will be a very tough hold for the Liberals.

– Evans has a few things going for him. He’s a known moderate candidate in a more moderate branch of the Liberal Party and we don’t know who the Labor candidate is. It’ll be interesting if the Labor candidate comes from southern Sydney or northern Wollongong.

The stretch from Stanwell Park to Thirroul/Bulli is interesting. This area could be the Byron Bay or the Newtown of the south. Like the inner-west of Sydney and inner-city Melbourne, the blue collar workforce is declining and the city of Wollongong is gentrifying. Sea-changers, young professionals, the WFH crowd, hipsters and creative types are moving in.

According to the federal results in Cunningham, the Greens scored a primary vote from mid-20s to low-40s. Following a retiring Labor MP, the Greens must’ve had a stellar campaign. If the northern suburbs gets redistributed to be with Wollongong’s CBD and its neighbouring suburbs at the next NSW state redistribution, the NSW Greens would be within striking distance. For now, it’s lucky for Labor and unlucky for the Greens that Wollongong (the state electorate) is the way it is.

Left 47.right 53 based on 2019 figures
Opv bonus 2% to liberals.
The boundary changes shift 7% to Labor
Along with general election swing to.
Labor of 6% plus cannot see how the libs could retain this seat
Alp candidate is again Mary Anne Stuart
.

I reckon Lee Evans will be delighted it’s Maryann Stuart again. While it’s 48/52 LP/ALP on federal results Evans wins the seat. So I reckon it’ll be very close.

Agree moderate, Lee Evans is quite a strong incumbent being considered scandal free and the northern Wollongong area is known to be a competitive/swing region so it will be a tough contest as Labor doesn’t really have a strong lead in statewide polls at the moment.

The argument steady as she goes . We can win from behind way be valid if the 2019 election environment holds. But it does not there will be a swing to Labor if the latest polls are right there is a swing of 6 to 10% to Labor.. to get a positive swing against the trend of 2% plus is difficult. The liberal party woes have not ebated..the Barilaro inquiry is still ongoing and future damaging icac hearings will occur

Mick – how about the new Obeid trial early next year. You reckon people have forgotten? If they had, the. Tania sure reminded them.

Agree moderate, I would say both parties have been affected by corruption in some form and it is ultimately which side appeals better to the public overall.

I don’t think that the arguments about Obeid, Tripodi and McDonald really hold up anymore as a sign of the coalition being the better choice. Just look at the corruption scandals within the current liberal government, between O’Farrell and his bottle of wine, Gladys’s failure to disclose her involvement with Daryl Maguire (who himself is another corruption scandal), the Barilaro trade job saga, the whole situation with Eleni Petinos, Gareth Ward and his sex crimes/child abuse scandal, and the corruption charges against John Sidoti. Yes, Obeid and his lot were incredibly corrupt, possibly among the most corrupt Australian politicians in the past decade or so, however I can’t see this really impacting the chances of the election. I don’t expect a landslide but I also can’t see Perrottet surviving this election, Askin, Wran and Carr only won single seat majorities to win from opposition

Obeid Tripodi etc are surely not still blamed..after 10 years.. would not the current scandals be more relevant.. Tania ‘s stuff I’d flash in the pan.. again goes back more than 10 years ago.. the test I presume is the next nsw opinion poll and of course election day. . But even if you take the most generous interpretation Labor is still in front of where they were in 2019.. also I think Mr Holland will retain Bega

Dc Cook.. I consider there will be a swing to Labor.. the question is how much.. can range from small to the 6% odd I was expecting to something like the resolve poll 10% plus. Even 6% odd makes the opv bonus which the coalition got since 2011 shift to Labor. Ie Labor gets more primary votes then the coalition.

Fair points D Cook and Mick, the last major Labor scandals were several years ago so are probably forgotten by the general public. I and Moderate are just pointing out that campaigning with the message ‘we’re better than out opponents because we’re not corrupted’ may not work out well as the opponents can easily lob the historical arguments back into play.

A good point, as virtually every government in NSW since the 1960s has had a major corruption scandal (some only known after the end of the government). To assert that the current labor party is corrupt and untrustworthy because of the scandals the party had over 11 years ago, under leadership which is now mostly gone, is like asserting that the coalition is untrustworthy and corrupt because of the scandals engulfing Askin and Greiner. These arguments fall flat, none of the major parties are distant from corruption. One must decide which is less corrupt, or less of a mess.

Ok D Cook. You are clearly not on the same page as the present ALP member for Bankstown. I suggest you avail yourself of what she said via Hansard.
There are now 5 former ALP ministers in jail, or under probable criminal charges. I think you’re attempt to “look over there” to this systemic corruption is a little disingeneous. And 6 members of the present ALP caucus, including 3 on the front bench, mentioned Eddie in their first speeches! Where’s the similarity with the Greiner Govt??

Moderate I am probably more on the side of D Cook and Mick, the allegations raised by Tania (MP for Bankstown) don’t have much substance at this stage and the legal precedent of ‘innocent until proven guilty’ should always be followed. Unless you know of more evidence that suggests the allegations could be true and are yet to be publicly released.

Moderate I am probably more on the side of D Cook and Mick, the allegations raised by Tania (MP for Bankstown) don’t have much substance at this stage and the legal precedent of ‘innocent until proven guilty’ should always be followed. Unless you know of more evidence that suggests the allegations could be true and are yet to be publicly released.

I’m definitely not arguing that Mihailuk’s point should be glossed over, quite the opposite. And yes, I have read the hansard of Mihailuk’s speech.
The allegations against Asfour must be looked into, but they have little substantial evidence behind them. Small amounts of evidence do not correlate to mistruths, however they are not nearly as substantial.
One could argue that coalition are in the same boat, with two former ministers (Sidoti and Ward) looking down the potential of receiving severe criminal charges, potentially imprisonment.
The actions of Obeid, Tripodi and Macdonald form a massive dark stain on the history of both the NSW labor party, and on the history of the NSW parliament, yet have little impact on the current future of the Labor party.
I agree that Chris Minns did the wrong thing by removing Mihailuk from the shadow cabinet, a move which gives the impression of trying to gloss over corruption.
On your point about first speeches, I find that to be rather misleading. What a politician says in their first speech does not necessarily define their views as a whole. What does define a politician’s views is their voting record in parliament, and the actions that they take. In his first speech, Paul Keating declared his view that the coalition ought to be ashamed of increasing the numbers of women in the workforce. Did he follow through with that view? I also ask which MPs you are referring to.

Of the former ministers in the last labor government, I can only find three currently imprisoned, Macdonald, Obeid and Orkopoulos (though Tripodi should join them) Macdonald and Obeid were imprisoned over corruption scandals, and Orkopoulos was imprisoned over sex offences and drug dealing. The situations of Obeid/Macdonald and Orkopoulos are not comparable. If other charges are added, that adds Face and Paluzzano. Again, their scandals are unrelated, while still corrupt.
I correct my statement about Greiner, I had forgotten that his charges were later retracted.
I am in no way arguing that the labor party is not corrupt, they indisputably are. I’m merely making the point that the coalition cannot attack labor members as they ‘sat in the cabinet with Obeid and Tripodi and did nothing’, when the coalition had Sidoti and Ward in their cabinet and did nothing. Both scandals deserve equal prominence and conseqences, and Labor has deservingly lost three elections over the scandals (among other reasons).

Ok mate that’s a very fair wrap up. I won’t add to my view on who should or should not be going to the big house from the ALP side – but watch this space.
Thanks for the detailed analysis.

Labor’s Diedree Steinwall is likely to win pre-selection. It’s a three legged race between Mick Moroney, Steinwall and Maryanne Stuart. Moroney and Steinwall are in kahoots and are the ALP’s best chance at a win. Lee could actually retain if Maryanne runs.

Liberal hold. Lee is a great Moderate MP that understands local issues. Labor’s messaging wouldn’t cause the swing they hope for in Heathcote. Northern Illawarra is becoming very affluent now and definitely can vote for a Moderate Liberal. Labor’s vote has been collapsing in the Illawarra and going to minor parties (look at Steven Jones’s results) – with OPV it’ll be hard for Labor to overcome Lee’s incumbency advantage. Cunningham 2022 isn’t useful to compare to – the Liberal Candidate that did not campaign and appeared to be there just to have a name on the ballot.

Mick Maroney has withdrawn from the Labor preselection process for Heathcote https://www.theleader.com.au/story/7974106/maroney-quits-heathcote-preselection-contest/

Maryanne Stuart has been selected as the Labor candidate. This will be Stuart’s third time running (having run in 2015 and 2019). Stuart has remained active in the local area and was recently involved in a petition to stop Sydney Water selling some land in Woronora Heights that had koalas using it. Evans has now stopped that sale (he has sent me correspondence as a voter about it). Stuart will certainly benefit from the new boundaries so it’ll be interesting to watch!

Here are the 5 booths shifting into Heathcote from Keira that are most likely to be causing this shift:
*Bulli PCYC – Labor 1124, Liberal 644, Green 400
*Bulli Public – Labor 461, Liberal 222, Green 238
*Austinmer Anglican – Labor 373, Liberal 170, Green 282
*Coledale Public – Labor 245, Liberal 167, Green 179
*Thirroul District Centre – Labor 701, Liberal 348, Green 482

The Liberal Party virtually ran dead in Keira, given that it was one of the few seats that held up in the 2011 O’Farrell Landslide and Ryan Park is the member for Keira. You would expect that there will be some natural swing back to the Liberal Party in these 5 booths, given that Heathcote will be a competitive seat.

Votante is correct. There is growing support for the Greens in the area and, as you can see, Greens placed 2nd in 4 of those 5 booths. Votante is also correct in that this area is shifting, between a mix of Newtown-like communities and young families trying to make a start. The former will be hard-core left supporters while the latter will be genuine swing voters (especially around Bulli and Thirroul).

I think this election will be won or lost in Bulli and Thirroul and the question will be how well Labor can hold their vote up in these two suburbs. Although there is a swing to Labor in this election, the three booths covered by Bulli and Thirroul hold a big chunk and, this time, will have an active Liberal Candidate working the area.

Hawke eye.. the other changes were moving Menai suburbs out this caused the strengthening of Holsworthy for the libs

Of Course, but the expected booths leaving Heathcote should only total 3 (Bangor Public, Menai Community Centre and Menai Public). It is all about the impact of the new areas being included, in terms of seeing what will change.

Labor only polled above 50% in one of the booths on Primary vote (Bulli PCYC), while they dropped below 40% in Coledale. Liberal had its best performance in Bulli PCYC and its worst in Austinmer (Primary Vote below 20%). The question will be whether having an active and incumbent Liberal MP will trigger activity for people to vote for the Liberal Party in the south section of the seat.

Opv usually benefits the party that polls the most primary votes

. Left 4 7 right 53 opv bonus about 2. For libs. The boundary changes shift the seat 7% labor’s way. Assume a 2% swing labor’s way which is a very conservative estimate. The liberals lose the opv bonus..assume alp and libs poll even in the primary vote then liberals need to from the pool of other votes.

The preferences favoured Labor on 2019 votes by 2% so in a tied vote on primaries which is 2% seing

Swing to liberals against the swing labor still wins by 2%. More likely Labor has a dampened swing to then. So start with 52 % as per the boundaries then Labor.has a swing of 2 to 6%… that in my.sums gives alp a 2pp.of 54 to 58?%

Using Coledale Public School as a guide (as it is a dual booth), The Labor Vote in that booth for Keira was 65.4% TPP, while the Heathcote Vote was 59.2%. Now, it is only one booth so take this with a grain of salt.

The difference in vote was about 6.2PP. Assuming that carries over, that would mean you could say that Lee Evans being a more visible candidate in the area would gain 180 Votes. That is clearly not enough to spin the seat back, as that wouldn’t even reduce the margin by 0.1%.

It really does show how important it is for Lee Evans to hit this area hard, as this is the only way that he is going to make the gap up, which is effectively 1108 votes.

I’m tipping a Labor gain. I can’t see Lee Evans hanging on. He’s in a predicament following the redistribution going south (no pun intended). The population of the northern suburbs of Wollongong have shot up during the pandemic and there were big swings to the Greens at the federal election in 2022.

i think evans is based in the shier part of the seathelped the new hues mp get preselection as a moderit faction leader

The swing in this seat was very interesting. In the Sutherland Shire booths for this seat, double digit swings to the ALP in election day votes and pre-polls. In the Illawarra end of the seat, no swing at all or even a slight swing to the Liberals. Now the Illawarra end is ridiculously safe for the ALP already – 65-70% 2PP. I think this supports the idea that there was a swing on in the Sutherland Shire towards the ALP in this election, as supported by booth results in Holsworthy and Miranda as well.

“I see Wollongong and the wider Illawarra region being similar to the Sunshine Coast part of Queensland, once a regional/rural area but now transformed into a somewhat commuter belt region that is still popular as a tourist hotspot.”

I know it’s very late to respond to this but Wollongong and the surrounding areas have an industrial background. Like steelworks and an industrial port. It’s more like Newcastle than the Sunshine Coast…

SP, I know that Wollongong does have industrial areas more so than Queensland locations. But I was comparing the fact that a lot of those industries are in decline and the northern Wollongong suburbs are seen as a commuter belt area for those living and working in southern Sydney, so it may be trending more towards a swing region instead of solid Labor.

“But I was comparing the fact that a lot of those industries are in decline and the northern Wollongong suburbs are seen as a commuter belt area for those living and working in southern Sydney, so it may be trending more towards a swing region instead of solid Labor.”

I checked the state (Keira, Wollongong) and federal (Cunningham) voting results for the last decade or so – there is no evidence that this area is trending away from the ALP. The Greens vote has increased a bit, but it’s not becoming a swing region – still very solidly ALP on 2PP. There may be demographic changes occurring, but it’s not having a significant electoral effect yet. I think the upper Illawarra is going to be a solid ALP region for a while. In this election, there was basically no swing in the Illawarra parts of Heathcote but it’s still very strong ALP.

If you’re looking for swing regions in this part of the world, I’d say the Sutherland Shire is a better candidate. There is actually an established history of Sutherland Shire seats and booths (including this election) swinging between the ALP and Liberals.

I agree with SP. The Southern part of the Wollongong around Port Kembla tends to be the most industrialized part. The northern Wollongong suburbs once had coal mines. I agree it is becoming white collar/commuter region but i am not sure if that will lead to it being a swing region i suspect it will become more like Blue Mountains/Dandenongs, Surf Coast etc attract tree/sea changers who have left wing views. The Labor primary vote may decline but parties like AJP/Greens will probably benefit not the Libs

yes – I think the northern end will stay ALP/Green
New arrivals will mainly be educated professionals who don’t have to commute every day the CBD and enjoy nature so will lean Greens/ALP
There will be no no housing estates in that general area due to geography

It’s really quite funny how none of the Liberal fanpeople in this thread anticipated the Sutherland Shire swinging towards the ALP big time. The Shire didn’t get mentioned by anybody in their analysis or predictions. It’s all about how historically safe ALP areas are suddenly going to swing to the Liberals because they have a new Liberal MP. I think that was *very* optimistic reasoning lol.