LIB 17.0%
Incumbent MP
Robyn Preston, since 2019.
Geography
North-western fringe of Sydney. The seat covers the entirety of the Hawkesbury local government area and northern parts of the Hills council area. The seat covers Richmond, Windsor, Kurrajong and surrounding areas.
Redistribution
Hawkesbury lost Canoelands and Forest Glen to Hornsby, and Kenthurst and Middle Dural to Castle Hill. Hawkesbury gained Box Hill, Gables and Nelson from Castle Hill. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 17.5% to 17.0%.
Hawkesbury has existed since 1859. Except for the 1940s, when it was held by Labor, the seat has been won by the Liberal Party and its predecessors since 1927.
The original district of Hawkesbury elected two MLAs from 1859 to 1880. It became a single-member district in 1880. As parties developed in the late 19th century, Hawkesbury was dominated by Free Traders. It was then held by the early Liberal Reform party, but was won by an independent in 1917.
In 1920, it was merged with other seats to form the three-member Cumberland district.
Hawkesbury was restored in 1927, and won by Nationalist Bruce Walker, who had been one of the Members for Cumberland since 1920.
Walker retired at the 1932 election, and was succeeded by his son Ronald Walker, who won as a United Australia Party candidate.
The younger Walker retired in 1941, and the seat was won by the ALP’s Frank Finnan by only 130 votes.
Finnan became a minister in 1947. In 1950, a redistribution made Hawkesbury solidly conservative, and Finnan won the new inner-city seat of Darlinghurst. He served as a minister until 1953, when Darlinghurst was abolished, and he retired.
Bernie Deane won Hawkesbury for the Liberal Party in 1950. He held the seat throughout the 1950s and 1960s as a backbencher. He retired in late 1972.
The by-election was held in early 1973, and was won by Liberal candidate Kevin Rozzoli. He held the seat throughout the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. He was Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1988 to 1995.
In 2003, Rozzoli intended to run for another term, but he was challenged for preselection by former Hornsby Shire president Steven Pringle. Pringle’s preselection was controversial, creating deep animosity in the local Liberal Party.
In 2006, Pringle faced his own preselection challenge from Baulkham Hills Shire councillor Ray Williams. Williams defeated Pringle in late 2006. Pringle resigned from the Liberal Party, and contested Hawkesbury as an independent. Williams won the seat with 56% of the two-candidate-preferred vote.
Ray Williams was easily re-elected in 2011.
Ray Williams swapped seats in 2015 with Dominic Perrottet, who had won the neighbouring seat of Castle Hill in 2011.
Perrottet changed seats again in 2019, shifting to Epping, leaving Hawkesbury for Liberal candidate Robyn Preston. Perrottet went on to become premier of New South Wales in 2021.
Assessment
Hawkesbury is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Robyn Preston | Liberal | 25,127 | 51.3 | -5.3 | 51.2 |
| Peter Reynolds | Labor | 9,325 | 19.1 | -3.4 | 19.6 |
| Shane Djuric | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 4,385 | 9.0 | +9.0 | 8.7 |
| Danielle Wheeler | Greens | 3,102 | 6.3 | -1.2 | 6.4 |
| Eddie Dogramaci | Independent | 1,312 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 4.6 |
| Sarah Coogans | Animal Justice | 1,394 | 2.8 | +2.9 | 2.7 |
| Marie-Jeanne Bowyer | Independent | 2,290 | 4.7 | +4.7 | 2.6 |
| Elissa Carrey | Sustainable Australia | 1,217 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 2.6 |
| Perran Costi | Keep Sydney Open | 789 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.5 |
| Informal | 1,972 | 3.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Robyn Preston | Liberal | 26,935 | 67.5 | -0.3 | 67.0 |
| Peter Reynolds | Labor | 12,982 | 32.5 | +0.3 | 33.0 |
Booths in Hawkesbury have been split into three parts. Booths in the densest part of the seat have been split between Richmond and Windsor, with the rest of the seat grouped as ‘north’.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.7% in Richmond to 76.6% in the north.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.8% in the north to 9.6% in Windsor.
| Voter group | SFF prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Windsor | 9.6 | 69.2 | 14,824 | 31.0 |
| Richmond | 8.6 | 63.7 | 12,644 | 26.4 |
| North | 7.8 | 76.6 | 3,695 | 7.7 |
| Other votes | 7.9 | 66.9 | 8,703 | 18.2 |
| Pre-poll | 8.6 | 64.0 | 8,021 | 16.8 |
Election results in Hawkesbury at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
I think Labor could score a huge swing here but I won’t say that they’ll win.
At the federal election, Susan Templeman scored swings of at least 10% in 2PP terms at most booths in the Windsor, Richmond and Kurrajong and various smaller booths (e.g. Bilpin, Grose Wold). According to the Macquarie 2021 thread, Susan Templeman is a wildly popular local member, the Liberal candidate was a dud and there was angst over flood recovery.
If there is a long-term shift in electoral dynamics and there’s still angst over the management of flood recovery, there could be a huge swing to Labor.
Votante what would you say the vote would be here based on federal figures?
Funnily enough, I calculated this one ages ago. Around 60% on 2PP figures, and most of that is significantly driven up by the sections in Hills Shire. Excluding these areas (except for the new developments around Box Hill) and you will be left with a margin of around 6%. Now there are a lot of factors for the swing to Labor at play here which I will struggle to mention all at once but long story short, Robyn Preston is not exactly well liked, even compared with Sarah Richards and one could expect the margin in the various eastern booths to drop without Leeser on the ballot (although since Preston is from this area, I still expect this is where most of the Liberal margin will come from). That combined with the fact that issues such as infrastructure, flood prevention measures and basic issues surrounding the local economy and services are more prevalent makes me think that Labor could reach 40% of the 2PP here, and if Calvert is the nominee, 45%. These may seem like wild calls but one needs to understand how much the locals here are, pardon my French, pissed off.
I’ll take your word for it Boof Head. I also estimated mid to high 50s on 2PP (LIB vs ALP) based on federal figures. The Liberals have almost always won Hawkesbury by at least 15% for the past few decades and even won by 35% in 2011.
I should add, the biggest swings to Labor (11% to 17%) happened at booths west of Richmond and along the Bells Line of Road e.g. Bilpin, Kurrajong, Grose Wold, Kurmond. A lot of these communities were literally cut off from the rest of the world due to floods and landslides this year and last year.
Thank you Boofhead and Volante. On federal figures approx 55/45 lib way. Not safe by any means.
Trying to read the tea leaves
I would say the liberals are no
Longer a certain win here if all
Things remain as they are now Labor could win. This is looking like my guess for Balmain
What is the impact of The Hills LGA component of this seat on the estimates above?
Glenorie and Maroota are extremely, extremely Liberal-voting.
Box Hill is the fastest-growing part of the electorate, and voted 61.6% for the Liberals (2PP) at the federal election.
Nicolas may well make the difference..only time will tell
No electable teal candidate. Random independents, one nation, and shooters and fishers won’t touch the sides except through preferences. Jumping around like a frog in a sock over floods and bridges won’t matter at all here. The libs have comfortably held this seat and it will follow any general swing against the government and no more.
Probable liberal retain
Liberals should be voted out why, no help from the floods the roads are still not repairs the rail system is so slow and not reliable and it’s only 15mins faster than when it opened 164 years ago. The public schools enrolments are declining and there is no funding for the local hospital that is financed by the Catholic Church the Libs don’t care about the Hawkesbury.
This is a very vast seat, region and LGA. Being an outer-suburban and rural area, it leans very heavily towards the Liberals on all levels of politics despite being in the Labor-held seat of Macquarie (which is Labor-held because of the Blue Mountains).
It extends from the outer northern suburbs of Sydney (Kurrajong, Pitt Town, Maroota, Windsor and surrounds) just north of the Hills District, and then stretches out to Bilpin (sorta near the Blue Mountains) and up to small rural towns in the north and out to Wisemans Ferry on the Central Coast.