ALP 7.1%
Incumbent MP
Liesl Tesch, since 2017.
Geography
Central Coast. The seat of Gosford covers western parts of the former City of Gosford, including the Gosford and Woy Woy areas.
Redistribution
Gosford expanded to take in sparsely-populated parts of the seat of Wyong. This reduced the Labor margin from 7.3% to 7.1%.
History
A district with the name ‘Gosford’ has existed since the 1950 election. Prior to that period the southern parts of the Central Coast were combined with a seat covering the Hawkesbury.
The seat was held by the Liberal Party from its creation in 1950 to 1971, when it was won by the ALP.
In 1973, the seat of Gosford was broken into the seats of Gosford and Peats. The seat of Peats is the most immediate predecessor of the current seat of Gosford.
Keith O’Connell, who had won Gosford in 1971, moved to the safer Labor seat of Peats in 1973. O’Connell held the seat until his retirement in 1984.
O’Connell was succeeded in Peats by Paul Landa. Landa had been a Labor member of the Legislative Council since 1973 and had served as a minister in the Labor government since 1976. Landa held the seat for only nine months before his death in December 1984.
The ALP’s Tony Doyle won the 1985 by-election. He was re-elected safely in 1988 and 1991, and held the seat until his death in 1994. No by-election was held due to the impending 1995 election.
In 1995, the ALP’s Marie Andrews won the seat of Peats. She won re-election in 1999 and 2003.
In the lead-up to the 2007 election, the redistribution shifted the boundaries of seats on the Central Coast, moving the centre of Gosford from the original seat of Gosford into Peats. In response the seat of Gosford was renamed ‘Terrigal’ and Peats was renamed ‘Gosford’. Andrews was elected to the newly-renamed Gosford.
In 2011, Marie Andrews retired, and Liberal candidate Chris Holstein won Gosford with a 16.7% swing.
Holstein was defeated in 2015 by Labor’s Kathy Smith, who won the seat by barely 200 votes after a 12.2% swing. Smith resigned from parliament in early 2017 due to illness, and she died shortly after the by-election.
The 2017 by-election was won easily by Labor’s Liesl Tesch. Tesch was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Gosford is a reasonably safe Labor seat and should not prove difficult for Labor to retain in 2023.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Liesl Tesch | Labor | 21,505 | 44.2 | +5.6 | 44.1 |
| Susan Dengate | Liberal | 17,529 | 36.0 | -6.5 | 36.2 |
| Hillary Morris | Greens | 4,405 | 9.1 | +0.1 | 9.1 |
| Larry Freeman | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 2,307 | 4.7 | +4.7 | 4.7 |
| Patrick Murphy | Animal Justice | 1,678 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 3.4 |
| Judy Singer | Sustainable Australia | 1,213 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 2.5 |
| Others | 0.0 | ||||
| Informal | 1,788 | 3.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Liesl Tesch | Labor | 25,048 | 57.3 | +7.0 | 57.1 |
| Susan Dengate | Liberal | 18,691 | 42.7 | -7.0 | 42.9 |
Booths in Gosford have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west. Most of the seat’s population lies in the two urban areas in the east, while ‘west’ covers a large rural areas.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east (55.2%) and the south-east (62.4%). The Liberal Party polled 61% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 8.5 | 62.4 | 14,512 | 29.7 |
| North-East | 10.2 | 55.2 | 11,893 | 24.3 |
| West | 12.0 | 39.0 | 2,091 | 4.3 |
| Pre-poll | 6.3 | 55.8 | 13,157 | 26.9 |
| Other votes | 12.8 | 56.9 | 7,247 | 14.8 |
Election results in Gosford at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
This seat did see a strong swing to Labor at the last election, perhaps a result of a sophomore surge factor and high profile of its newly elected incumbent Liesl Tesch. I think Labor is strongly favoured to retain it, especially as the overlapping Federal seat of Robertson also swung to Labor.
However, the wider Central Coast area (particularly the southern parts south of Gosford) are the most swingy parts of the region, and it could fall back to Liberal hands when Labor is not doing so well. This would also be the case for the neighbouring district of The Entrance, which also saw a modest swing to Labor in 2019.
Out of all the ‘regional’ areas surrounding Sydney, the Central Coast is probably seen as the one that behaves more like a commuter belt area compared with Wollongong and the Blue Mountains which are at similar distance from the CBD, hence it tends to be less secure for Labor.
What sort of people live in the northwest of this electorate?
Northwest of the electorate (Somersby, Peats Ridge, Mangrove Mountain) is quite rural and has more in common with the outskirts of Metropolitan Sydney than the Central Coast that’s east of the Pacific Mwy. You’ll find large acreages, small farms and nurseries. It feels like the remote parts of Camden, Liverpool, Penrith, Hawkesbury and Hills Shire LGAs, but with no urban sprawl.
This electorate may trend Liberal over time if it follows the UK/US trend of older, non-uni educated, blue-collar workers switching to right-wing parties.
Agree Votante, the inland parts of Central Coast could be compared well to the Gold Coast Hinterland and Scenic Rim regions, both areas that are more rural in nature relative to the built up coastal communities of SEQ.
I’ve always been curious what the demographics of this seat are, that has made it so much more Labor than the Terrigal/eastern Gosford seat over the years.
Is Woy Woy and western Gosford just naturally poorer and less desirable than the eastern parts of Gosford?
from my visits to the region I would say that Woy Woy/Umina appears to be the poorer areas with older fibro housing stock while places to the east would be more aspirational areas with newer estates from the 90s at least
This seat and Strathfield are the only seats with sitting members in 2015 that in hindsight the Libs probably regret losing that election. The other seats such Blue Mountains, Campebelltown, Granville etc were just a once in a couple of generations win so losing then was not really a bad result. They only lost Gosford in 2015 by 0.2% so a better targeted campaign could have saved this. If they held on to Gosford & Strathfield in 2015 then there is a good chance in 2019 they would have held it as 2019 was a good year for NSW Liberals to hold seat they already held including getting swings to them in some seats such as East Hills, Oatley. This would have made the path in 2023 harder for NSW Labor
This is a seat the Liberals need. Historical trends show it is actually possible for the Liberals to win this seat back and to win back The Entrance (the latter is currently more likely), as well as increase their vote in Terrigal.
@nether portal you won’t win robertson if you can’t win gosford and are having trouble in liberal terrigal use some common sense mate
I’m putting this here because I can’t comment on the NSW main thread since the NSW state election was last year.
Here’s a map I’ve made showing the target seats for the 2027 state election: https://jmp.sh/i9nGZxCZ
The purple seats are targets for the majors, the teal seats are targets or potential losses for teal independents and the yellow seats are targets or potential losses for regional and rural independents. The darker the shade, the more targeted. The seats I have in the most targeted category are Camden, East Hills, Holsworthy, Monaro, Parramatta, Penrith, Riverstone, South Coast and The Entrance. Seats in the second tier include Bega, Drummoyne, Gosford, Kiama and Ryde. The only marginal seat that’s entirely missing from the target seat category is Terrigal which I have as a solidly blue. A few safe seats made the cut too, including Gosford, Port Stephens and Prospect. Maitland was one I could’ve included but the margin’s too high at the moment, maybe next time it might be a bright purple (less likely) target.
Overall, Western Sydney, the southern Central Coast and southeastern NSW (lower Illawarra (Kiama), Monaro, the Southern Highlands and the South Coast) are the main target regions.
@ NP
Once again great work. 2027 will interesting as both major parties will be seeking to win seats off each other. Labor needs to win seats off Coalition to have a majority. I largely agree with you with a few caveats.
1. I dont think Lane Cove should be shaded purple, it is more of a Teal target. While the Teal did not make the 2CP in 2023, Labor did not really make any inroads in terms of primary vote and it is PV is very low. The relatively low LIB/ALP TPP can be explained by Teal votes exhausting. If it is not shaded Teal it should be Solid Blue not really in play for Labor.
2. I dont feel Prospect should be purple at all unless Labor is headed for 2011 style disaster. Plus the current boundaries for Prospect are much better for Labor than the old Smithfield which Libs managed to win in the 2011 Landslide.
3. Do you have Granvile shaded purple? I feel it is Solid Red for Labor.
4. I feel Lismore should be pale purple it is safe for now until Janelle Saffin decides to retire then it will be in play for Nats, Greens and Labor.
@Nimalan thanks again.
1. On second thought I actually agree with you on Lane Cove. I was surprised that Labor even made the TCP count there (I thought a teal did until I Googled it).
2. Prospect is somewhat winnable if they try but yes it would be difficult.
3. I had Granville in a very light purple but on second thought I would have put it red.
4. True but it’s still a target for the Nationals given that it would wipe out Labor in northern NSW.
My map for NSW is interesting because some safe seats made the cut for target seats, including the normally marginal seat of Port Stephens where the Liberals have only won at two elections (narrowly in 2007 and easily in 2011), plus the normally bellwether seat of Gosford (the old Gosford was a Liberal seat for a long time but in 2007 the seat of Peats which included Woy Woy moved to take in most of Gosford and it was renamed Gosford while the old Gosford lost most of Gosford to the new Gosford and was renamed Terrigal).
However, all but three (or four if you count Kiama where Gareth Ward was sacked from the Liberals and narrowly retained Kiama in 2023 as an independent) of the top target seats are seats Labor gained from the Coalition (mostly the Liberal Party with the exception of Monaro which was held by the Nationals) in 2023. The exceptions to that rule are Holsworthy (where the Liberals narrowly retained the seat), The Entrance (which has been a marginal Labor seat since 2015) and Wollondilly (where an independent gained the seat from the Liberals), plus Kiama if you count it.
Here’s why each seat is a top target:
* Camden: key Macarthur/southwestern Sydney seat, lost to Labor in 2023
* East Hills: key southern Sydney seat, narrowly lost to Labor in 2023 after three consecutive elections where it was an ultra-marginal Liberal seat
* Holsworthy: ultra-marginal Liberal seat in an area that is usually (based on historical trends) a Labor heartland (Holsworthy includes parts of the City of Liverpool LGA); demographically this seat is diverse, for example it has large Lebanese Catholic and Lebanese Muslim communities
* Monaro: key southern NSW seat, shockingly lost to Labor in 2023 (I predicted that they would hold onto Monaro), bellwether seat, the National Party’s top target seat
* Parramatta: key Western Sydney seat, lost to Labor in 2023
* Penrith: key Western Sydney seat, lost to Labor in 2023, also quite marginal
* Riverstone: key Western Sydney seat, lost to Labor in 2023, covers some growing housing estates between the Hills District and Blacktown
* South Coast: shocking loss in 2023, normally a Liberal seat
* The Entrance: key Central Coast marginal seat, could potentially fall to the Liberals to give them a second seat on the Central Coast (assuming the Liberals have sandbagged the blue-ribbon seat of Terrigal)
* Wollondilly: key Southern Highlands seat, shockingly lost to an independent in 2023
The key target region is, yet again, Western Sydney and southeastern NSW, with the only seat not falling into that category being The Entrance.
@ NP
Agree with your analysis, I feel off all the Labor held seats East Hills is probably the easiest to gain for the Libs. Even though the Libs lost in 2023, the Libs had a better TPP result in East Hills than they did statewide for the first time ever. Despite there being a swing of 17% TPP to Labor from the 2011 result, when you adjust for redistributions East Hills has only had 0.7% swing to Labor from the 2011 disaster. Regarding Prospect, Labor should look at a new member especially one from a diverse background to boost the TPP.
The nsw election is about the only one I can’t read ATM I’m not sure if the will go into majority or if the will go further into minority or lose
I think NSW Labor are doing fine and will get a decent majority in 2027, based on current polls.
@Ian but it’s still 2024. The election won’t be until 2027. I can’t predict the result either.