LIB 10.9%
Incumbent MP
Dominic Perrottet, since 2019. Previously member for Castle Hill 2011-2015, member for Hawkesbury 2015-2019.
Northern Sydney. Epping mostly covers northern parts of the City of Parramatta, along with the southern end of Hornsby Shire. It covers the suburbs of Epping, North Epping, Beecroft, Carlingford, Dundas Valley, Telopea, Oatlands and North Rocks.
Redistribution
Epping lost its northern half and replaced it with areas to the south-west. Epping lost Cherrybrook to Hornsby and Rogans Hill to Castle Hill, and also exchanged a small amount of territory with Ryde. Epping then made up for its northern losses by gaining Carlingford, Dundas Valley, Oatlands and Telopea from Parramatta, and also gaining North Rocks from Baulkham Hills. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 12.4% to 10.9%.
The seat of Epping was created at the 1999 election. It has been won by the Liberal Party every election since 1999.
Epping was first won by Andrew Tink in 1999. He had been the Liberal Member for Eastwood since 1988. Eastwood had been a safe Liberal seat in the area since 1950.
Tink held Epping at the 1999 and 2003 elections. He announced his retirement in 2006. Liberal preselection for Epping was won by former prosecutor Greg Smith, who defeated former Sex Discrimination Commissioner Pru Goward. She went on to win the seat of Goulburn, and Smith won Epping.
Smith was re-elected to a second term in 2011. He served as Attorney-General in the O’Farrell government from 2011 to 2014.
Smith retired at the 2015 election, and Liberal candidate Damien Tudehope won the seat.
Tudehope shifted to the Legislative Council in 2019, making room in Epping for Liberal MP Dominic Perrottet, who had represented Castle Hill and then Hawkesbury from 2011 until 2019.
Perrottet won Epping in 2019, and became Liberal leader and NSW premier in 2021.
- Phil Bradley (Greens)
- Alan Mascarenhas (Labor)
- Victor Waterson (Independent)
- Bradley Molloy (Sustainable Australia)
- Dominic Perrottet (Liberal)
- Carmen Terceiro (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Perrottet should have no trouble winning re-election in 2023.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dominic Perrottet | Liberal | 27,506 | 55.9 | +1.5 | 53.9 |
| Alan Mascarenhas | Labor | 13,652 | 27.7 | +8.0 | 28.8 |
| Simon Margan | Greens | 5,143 | 10.4 | -3.7 | 9.9 |
| Samuel Lyndon | Keep Sydney Open | 1,379 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.2 |
| Victor Waterson | Independent | 1,544 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 1.7 |
| Others | 3.5 | ||||
| Informal | 1,145 | 2.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dominic Perrottet | Liberal | 28,584 | 62.4 | -3.9 | 60.9 |
| Alan Mascarenhas | Labor | 17,238 | 37.6 | +3.9 | 39.1 |
Booths in Epping have been split into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57% in the east to 64.9% in the south-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.5% in the south-west to 12.6% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 12.6 | 57.0 | 14,137 | 28.0 |
| South-West | 7.5 | 64.9 | 11,527 | 22.8 |
| North-West | 9.0 | 64.0 | 9,632 | 19.1 |
| Other votes | 11.0 | 59.8 | 9,649 | 19.1 |
| Pre-poll | 8.2 | 58.9 | 5,568 | 11.0 |
Election results in Epping at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Interesting that David Elliott might be the one responsible. Is it possible this is revenge for Perrottet not supporting his Castle Hill preselection attempt? This is not a good look for the NSW Libs who should be trying to display unity after the factional civil war during the federal election.
It is because Nazi symbols are associated with Hitler and the far-right. And they can kiss goodbye the Jewish vote because it is absolutely anti-Semitic what he did.
Comparing the U.S politicians like Ralph Northam is irrelevant because he couldn’t run for re-election. The only one who did was Mark Herring and he lost.
This man also tweeted support for Trump after he won in 2016. This is very inappropriate and political views such as supporting a fascist and a racist is not acceptable in this country.
NSW labor should make this an issue.
Seems Elliott is about blowing up the liberal government
Why? Maybe because no seat.. available. I wonder where this was found 20 odd years ago? Does Elliot maintain a dirt file?
If different candidate the sums for Epping change.. if I were the liberals I would not be changing the premier at this late stage. Who is the liberal source which shows Perrott .excuse misspelling. Leadership in untenable?
Daniel, the blackface scandal that afflicted then Governor Northam occurred in late 2018/early 2019, shortly after the successful 2018 midterms that saw Democrats make major gains across the country. It was thought that scandal, along with other minor ones that Mark Herring was also caught up in would affect the state party’s ability to win back the legislature in 2019, but they still managed to achieve that feat.
The losses by Herring and other Virginia Democrats occurred in the subsequent 2021 election which was held after Biden defeated Trump and the financial (inflation) crisis had just started.
I agree with you that Perrottet made a foolish move by endorsing Trump for his 2016 election campaign, but I believe in later press conferences made to his local district (once he moved to Epping post 2019) and also when he became Premier were more sympathetic where he expressed ‘deep regret’ for his past actions.
Any idea when Labor will announce their candidate?
Can’t find an official announcement, but according to the register of candidates and the posters around the area, Alan Mascarenhas (2019 candidate) is the Labor candidate.
While federally marginal, this should be an easy Liberal retain, though it will be interesting to see the impact of the loss of Geoff Lee’s personal vote in the redistributed areas.
Hi all
I’m a longtime fan of this site and can confirm I’ve been preselected as the Epping candidate. You can follow our campaign here.
https://m.facebook.com/100063619261609/
“Epping” is a silly name for this electorate. It really should be called “Carlingford.” The people in Oatlands & Dundas see “Epping” on their ballot papers and must think, “I certainly don’t live in Epping!”
Epping is a major transport hub and commercial centre. The suburb itself isn’t exactly in the middle of the electorate and probably isn’t entirely within the electorate.
@Votante agreed though based on that Kogarah should be renamed Hurstville while Willoughby should be renamed Chatswood, both of which make more sense.
@votante its not named after whats in the middle its named after the biggest population centre
Interesting, I would’ve thought Carlingford’s bigger than Epping, that shows how dated my conception of population in localities is
@Ben. I agree that in this case, it’s named after the biggest centre – Epping, as it was pre-distribution when Epping was also on the edge of the electorate.
East Hills is an example of an electorate whose namesake is on the edge of the electorate and isn’t even a large commercial centre nor have a large population. Revesby is both closer to the middle and is the largest commercial centre and transport hub. Same thing with Kogarah as Dan M alluded to.
You can really see the personal vote Geoff Lee had from the crazy swings in the booths that were in the old Parramatta which made this seat look like a Labor gain early on in the count. Of course, the story that came out the day before election day about the alleged discrimination against a potential Strathfield candidate really annoyed the Chinese community so in seats like this, Kogarah and Ryde, the postals and prepolls could be a lot more favourable to the Libs.
Liberals shouldn’t force this to a by-election, I thank the premier for his service and thank him for how gracious he was on election night, Like Steven Marshall, he now has a marginal (But not as marginal as Dunstan), He should see out his term because an early by-election could give Labor an opening.
Agree Daniel, I think Perrottet may be like Steven Marshall and serve out his term as a backbencher if he doesn’t want to hold a shadow ministerial portfolio.
There might be a push to get Dominic Perrottet and Matt Kean to Canberra. Perrottet would be a good fit for Mitchell seeing that Alex Hawke is now political dead meat. The federal Libs desperately need someone of his standing. Not sure how long Paul Fletcher will stick around. A lot will depend on the redistribution which will really push around North Shore seats.
Matt Kean’s announcement about not seeking the leadership should already cement the fact he wants to contest one of the federal teal seats. For Perrottet, it’s a bit more unclear since while it’s true Alex Hawke is politically finished like Scott Morrsion and Perrottet does have a lot of control over the local branches, Perrottet might have some baggage over the result for the state election.
Kean was quite unequivocal on the ABC panel that he intends to serve a full term.
He “intends” to serve until he doesn’t.
Of course Matt Kean said he’ll serve a full term on election night. Why would he admit he would quit during the term on the same day that he got reelected?
Pre-election, there was talk that Kean would go federal. If Dutton is looking for high-profile Libs to contest in teal seats, he might poach Kean and Perrottet.
There’s no way Perrotet would contest a teal seat. Mitchell and maybe Berowra I can see happening though.
I think Bennelong would be more likely if he were to run federally. It’s Labor-held on a slim margin and it’s his neck of the woods. A parachuted Lib candidate in a teal seat would backfire.
Mitchell and Berowra aren’t teal seats. He’s also represented state seats within those seats before hopping to Epping. Bennelong is too marginal of a choice for someone looking to rise up to a leadership position instead of eternally campaigning in their electorate.
If the Liberals didn’t have the benefit of having the Premier in this seat, and if there had been a retiring member like in neighbouring Parramatta and Ryde, I feel almost certain this would have fallen to Labor.
To an extent, there was the retiring member effect in the areas redistributed from the old Parrammatta that swung uo to 20%
This seat would be lost by the Libs in a by election unless they field a strong candidate
BREAKING: DOMINIC PERROTTET RESIGNS
Former Premier Dominic Perrottet has just announced that he will retire from politics, triggering a by-election in the state seat of Epping.
Liberal hold.
Perrottet is resigning for a job in Washington DC.
It comes a month after former Treasurer Matt Kean resigned from politics, which triggered a by-election in Hornsby. This will be the third by-election this year in NSW, after the Nationals easily retained Northern Tablelands after a landslide win saw Brendan Moylan easily succeed Adam Marshall in his very safe seat.
If Labor runs and wins both seats they’ll get a bare majority in the Legislative Assembly, but if they don’t then it stays the same. The Coalition still needs 11 seats for a majority government in 2027 and Labor still needs two.
The election guide is up.