ALP 2.1%
Incumbent MP
Marjorie O’Neill, since 2019.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Coogee includes parts of Waverley and Randwick local government areas, including the suburbs of Randwick, Coogee, Clovelly, Bronte, Waverley, Tamarama, Bondi Junction and parts of Kingsford.
Redistribution
Coogee expanded west to Anzac Parade, taking in parts of Kingsford as well as the University of New South Wales and Randwick Racecourse from Heffron, while losing a small part of South Coogee to Maroubra. This increased the Labor margin from 1.6% to 2.1%.
The electoral district of Coogee was first created in 1927, following the abolition of proportional representation in New South Wales. Back in 1927, there were a much larger number of districts covering the eastern suburbs of Sydney, Coogee sitting alongside Botany, Randwick, Waverley, Bondi, Vaucluse and Woollahra.
As the number of seats has declined and Coogee has expanded in size, the seat has become stronger for the ALP and less so for the Liberal Party, and the ALP held Coogee continuously from 1974 to 2011.
The first member for Coogee, Hyman Goldstein, was a Nationalist MP who had previously served as a member for the proportionally-elected Eastern Suburbs district from 1922 to 1925. He was found dead in 1928 at the bottom of the Coogee cliffs in mysterious circumstances. It has been rumoured that his death was caused by the federal Member for Barton, Thomas Ley, who was suspected in the murder of his Labor opponent in the 1925 election, and was later convicted of murder after moving to London.
The Nationalists and the United Australia Party held Coogee until the 1941 election, when they lost to the ALP’s Lou Cunningham. He had previously served as the federal Member for Gwydir from 1919 to 1925 and again from 1929 to 1931. He held Coogee until his death in 1948.
The Liberal Party’s Kevin Ellis defeated Cunningham’s widow at the 1948 by-election. Ellis lost to the ALP’s Lou Walsh in 1953, and the two engaged in numerous election battle over the next decade. Walsh lost to Ellis in 1956, winning the seat back in 1962 for one final term. Ellis held the seat from 1965 until his retirement in 1973.
At the 1973 election, the Liberal Party’s Ross Freeman won by only eight votes. The Court of Disputed Returns overturned the result in 1974, and the by-election was won by former rugby player Michael Cleary of the ALP by 54 votes.
Cleary served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1981 to 1988, and retired at the 1991 election.
Coogee was won in 1991 by the ALP’s Ernie Page, who had been Member for Waverley since 1991, and moved to Coogee after Waverley was abolished. Page served as Minister for Local Government for the first term of the Carr Labor government from 1995 to 1999, and retired at the 2003 election.
Page was succeeded in 2003 by the ALP’s Paul Pearce, Mayor of Waverley. He was re-elected in 2007.
In 2011, Pearce lost Coogee to Liberal candidate Bruce Notley-Smith with a 15.5% swing. Notley-Smith was re-elected in 2015.
Notley-Smith lost in 2019 to Labor candidate Marjorie O’Neill.
Assessment
Coogee is a marginal seat, but O’Neill should benefit from a new personal vote.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Bruce Notley-Smith | Liberal | 18,937 | 41.1 | -5.4 | 40.6 |
| Marjorie O’Neill | Labor | 15,819 | 34.4 | +1.8 | 34.5 |
| Lindsay Shurey | Greens | 6,687 | 14.5 | -4.1 | 14.9 |
| Joseph O’Donoghue | Keep Sydney Open | 2,232 | 4.8 | +4.9 | 5.0 |
| Simon Garrod | Animal Justice | 804 | 1.7 | +1.8 | 1.9 |
| Lluisa Murray | Sustainable Australia | 650 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.3 |
| Ciaran O’Brien | Small Business | 473 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| Josh Turnbull | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 433 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.9 |
| Informal | 879 | 1.9 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Marjorie O’Neill | Labor | 21,510 | 51.6 | +4.6 | 52.1 |
| Bruce Notley-Smith | Liberal | 20,141 | 48.4 | -4.6 | 47.9 |
Booths in Coogee have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 53% in the south-east and 55% in the south-west. The Liberal Party polled 50.6% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.5% in the south-east to 16.9% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 14.5 | 53.1 | 11,388 | 23.4 |
| South-West | 15.2 | 55.2 | 10,600 | 21.8 |
| North | 16.9 | 49.4 | 7,899 | 16.2 |
| Pre-poll | 11.2 | 51.1 | 9,486 | 19.5 |
| Other votes | 17.2 | 50.6 | 9,315 | 19.1 |
Election results in Coogee at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
This was only Liberal seat to flip to Labor in 2019. I believe voters had swung because of the controversial light rail rollout.
The Liberals crashed in Kingsford-Smith (roughly everywhere south of Clovelley Road down to La Perouse) and in Wentworth at the federal election. I don’t think the anti-Liberal swings in Coogee (the electorate) will be as bad. The Labor MP’s incumbency will help Labor a bit.
I predict a Labor hold in 2023.
One of only 2 seats where Labor won from behind.. the other being Lismore
I think this will be a very close seat. With light rail and stadium issue (locally) effectively over, Labor might not perform as well. From what I hear, the sitting MP isn’t all that well known and I doubt will attract too much of a popular vote. Another thought is that this could be a genuine 3-way contest if a Teal runs. Coogee contains a lot of Wentworth’s Teal booths
I can’t speak as a resident, but this is a seat I visit several times a week and my verdict is that Marjorie is pretty visible in the electorate – she is an ex-Waverly councilor too.
I’ll add that there’s still enough to complain about with the Light Rail (terminating at Randwick and not Coogee is a missed oppourtunity, and it can be unreliable at times) and that Labor saw a decent (4%) swing in their favour in the Randwick council election. This should be an easy Labor hold, probable swing in their favour.
The issue here is the Liberal primary vote even in 2015 was low and the Libs won due to exhausted Green vote. Regarding Teal while they may have done in Wentworth that maybe due to tactical voting. I would say a Teal would do well around Queens Park/Tamarama but this will just pull liberal votes and this may just exhaust under OPV. The NSW Libs have been fairly moderate/pragmatic unlike Federal or populist Vic Libs so i think it maybe overstated.
How would a Teal perform in the Randwick LGA component of Coogee district?
Rip Bruce, great member. Sacrificed himself for the light rail, he knew it wasn’t popular in his electorate but was good.
There is finally a Liberal candidate here in Coogee, although you wouldn’t know it on the ground. She has been practically invisible. At this point in 2019, Marjorie had been campaigning visibly for nearly 5 months.
Lots of hyperlocal issues here – cuts to bus services, issues at the Children’s Hospital within the electorate, lack of co-ed schools in the electorate, etc. These will likely work in favour of Labor, given these are all unpopular decisions associated with the incumbent government.
I’d be surprised if Labor isn’t returned here – likely to be an increased margin
Read that recent article from the AFR… They should be vetting candidates before they speak to the media. Not a good look for the Libs to say they’re the same as Teals. Perrottet has been doing great work creating a Liberal identity and path for sensible reform for NSW. Media appearances like this will lose you the seat.
https://www.afr.com/politics/meet-the-liberal-candidate-who-says-teals-are-the-same-as-her-20230106-p5carx
A Coogee equivalent in Melbourne would be the area around Port Melbourne and Albert Park given they are both high-income beachside suburbs yet it has a low Lib vote given its high average income around the voting booths
Coogee only really in play if the teals live up to their mantra of not being solely anti-Lib, and decide to run here.
An OPV contest 4 way of ALP/greens/Libs/teal becomes very interesting.
No change Labor retain. The teals run in Wentworth under different circumstances. This seat and Vaucluse make up a fair bit of this seat. Vaucluse will remain liberal because of all the conservative areas there. This seat is a marginal seat and the teals won’t be in the contest.
But why not Mick? This seat suits their demographic perfectly – very similar to Manly/Pittwater.
If, as they assert, they aren’t a partisan political force, let them prove it by running here. All of their hot button issues suit the electorate, and in Marjorie O’Neill they have one of the list right wing Walt secord acolyte ALP MPs available.
Why wouldn’t they do it??
There was a teal candidate in both a Labor-held seat (Hawthorn) and in a notionally Labor seat (Caulfield) at the Victorian election in 2022.
I don’t think a teal would run in Coogee. Methinks that if they were interested, they would’ve nominated last year.
I’m interested to see how the votes go in the northern parts of the electorate i.e. Bondi Junction, Waverley, Bronte. The teal 2PP vote was 60-something % at all booths at the federal election in this part of Wentworth.
I agree Votante re teals. They’re not going to run here. Labor will keep this seat with ease I think. KVM the Liberal candidate doesn’t seem strong enough to knock of Marjorie.
Why the Libs are bothering with a concerted campaign I do not know.
Easy Labor hold. 5% swing
@notlibgoss I guess they should just pack up their tents and not bother campaigning since the polls say labor will win
Labor will be in no trouble here. Marjorie O’Neill is extremely popular right across the seat, including the more liberal northern half. Cuts to local bus services due to the light rail rollout, plus the recent teal wave in Wentworth are really hurting the liberal party here.
I don’t know what the light rail anger is like but if it’s still as intense as it was in 2019, it would be worse for the Liberals because the redistribution expanded the electorate to Anzac Parade.
For those who know Kos Samaras, he’s a pollster who hypothesises that the % who rent, hold uni degrees and are Gen Z or Millennial correlate with voting progressively. This is one of the “most rented” electorates in the country. The renters can be divided into students, young professionals, sea-changers and non-citizens like backpackers, students etc. By his logic, Coogee will vote strongly for Labor/Green.
Easy Labor increase. Unless there’s a major reason sitting opposition fronbenchers rarely get a swi g against them especially against a long term government on the brink of a loss
I have lots of relatives who live in this seat.Unfortunately they can’t vote as they are in Waverley cemetery.
Remember Brad Hazzards faux pas about the good people of Rookwood being exposed to Covid?
How is this not still a Liberal seat? It’s a beachside area.
Though on the other hand, it doesn’t include the Liberal suburbs of Bondi, Bondi Junction, North Bondi, etc, which are beachside but still Liberal.
But to be honest, if the teals contested other Sydney seats (not just Liberal seats) then they would have probably ran here and could have won.
I would say in Sydney the Harbour has historically been more affluent than the Ocean beaches. We can see the same patten in the North where Mosman, Clontarf, Seaforth are more Liberal and more affluent than Manly, Dee Why etc. Even Bondi, Bondi Junction etc are often much more marginal and sometimes Labor wins the 2PP compared to Rose Bay. Bellevue Hill etc which is the real Liberal heartland.
It boils to demographics, I think. High employment in the public sector, particularly healthcare, as well as at universities. There’s also a lot of apartment dwellers and share-housing. Given its proximity to Port Botany and the inner-city, there is a strong history of industrialism and trade unionism. Add to that, the local member was pretty popular and scored double-digit swings.