NAT 10.3% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Gurmesh Singh, since 2019.
Geography
North coast of NSW. The seat covers the entirety of the City of Coffs Harbour, with the local government boundaries aligned to the electoral boundary.
History
Coffs Harbour has existed since 1981, and has always been held by the National Party.
The seat was first won in 1981 by Matt Singleton. He had been the Member for Clarence since 1971, but moved to Coffs Harbour when the redistribution made his former seat a notional Labor seat. He briefly served as a minister from 1988 to 1989, and retired in 1990.
The 1990 Coffs Harbour by-election was won by National Party candidate Andrew Fraser. Fraser held the seat until 2019.
Coffs Harbour was won in 2019 by Nationals candidate Gurmeet Singh.
Assessment
Coffs Harbour will probably remain with the Nationals in 2023.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gurmesh Singh | Nationals | 20,268 | 42.8 | -11.8 |
| Tony Judge | Labor | 8,371 | 17.7 | -8.2 |
| Sally Townley | Independent | 8,247 | 17.4 | +17.4 |
| Stuart Davidson | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 3,405 | 7.2 | +7.2 |
| Jonathan Cassell | Greens | 3,090 | 6.5 | -7.0 |
| Gregory Renet | Liberal Democrats | 1,542 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
| Robyn Marchant | Animal Justice | 1,278 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Ann Leonard | Independent | 1,132 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Informal | 1,846 | 3.8 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gurmesh Singh | Nationals | 22,375 | 60.3 | |
| Sally Townley | Independent | 14,730 | 39.7 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Gurmesh Singh | Nationals | 22,799 | 60.8 | -3.5 |
| Tony Judge | Labor | 14,717 | 39.2 | +3.5 |
Booths in Coffs Harbour have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Coffs Harbour urban area have been grouped together, and the remainder have been split into those to the north, south and west of Coffs Harbour.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 53.8% in the west to 59% in Coffs Harbour.
Labor narrowly missed out on the final count, with a primary vote ranging from 14.7% in the west to 19% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | NAT 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Coffs Harbour | 18.0 | 59.0 | 12,524 | 26.5 |
| South | 17.3 | 58.8 | 8,798 | 37.2 |
| North | 19.0 | 55.2 | 6,876 | 46.2 |
| West | 14.7 | 53.8 | 1,990 | 100.0 |
| Pre-poll | 17.4 | 66.9 | 11,135 | 32.0 |
| Other votes | 17.7 | 60.5 | 6,010 | 75.1 |
Election results in Coffs Harbour at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and independent candidate Sally Townley.
Opv appears to have cost either the alp or Ind the seat. Nat party
Very lucky to win with 42% of the primary vote. If 2019 repeated with a slight swing against the nats say 3% this seat would be uncertain
Very Lucky! He had 42.8% (of the primary, let’s ignore the preferences for now) and the next three combined had 42.3%. The highest being 17.7%. Not sure you fully grasp the mathematics or the definition of ‘luck’. Either way, perhaps gambling or professions involving probability are best avoided mate.
Agree Gav, even with full preferences the Nationals would have probably won the seat anyway (although margin would likely be <5% in that case). The large gap between the Nationals and the 2nd placed Labor candidate means that even a strong flow of preferences is unlikely to allow the trailing candidate/s to win.
@mick no because nats would have gained enough to get over the line
I’m surprised this wasn’t added on the seats to watch on your blog Ben, and for real this time, Because the same independent who ran last time is running again, and she has had 4 years to build up her profile, While I don’t think she will win, she will likely get a swing to her and the incumbent member probably will be re-elected with less than an 8% margin.
I can see this turning out like the overlapping federal seat of Cowper, Independent gets close, but narrowly fails.
Prediction: National retain (Possibly with a higher margin than the primaries suggest so a 4-6% margin due to OPV)
57.8% of locals voted against keeping the Nationals in charge of Cowper. Therefore the majority, in fact, disapprove of this party and it’s candidate despite spending our public money shamelessly on advertising themselves using parliamentary entitlements. How much did all the signs, junk mail, fridge magnets, ads on radio, newspapers and television or thousands of billboards plastered all over every school and fence in the area cost?