LIB 22.4%
Incumbent MP
David Elliott, member for Baulkham Hills since 2011.
Geography
North-western Sydney. Castle Hill covers south-eastern parts of the Hills council area, including the suburbs of Annangrove, Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Glenhaven, Kenthurst, Middle Dural, West Pennant Hills and parts of Dural.
Redistribution
Despite the name, the new electorate of Castle Hill is primarily the successor of the former seat of Baulkham Hills, while the neighbouring seat of Kellyville takes in more of the former seat of Castle Hill.
52% of the enrolled voters in the former seat of Baulkham Hills have been moved into Castle Hill, along with 40.6% of the voters in the former seat of Castle Hill. 48.4% of voters in the new seat of Castle Hill came from Baulkham Hills, with 40.9% coming from the seat of Castle Hill.
The suburbs of Baulkham Hills and West Pennant Hills were transferred from Baulkham Hills. The suburbs of Castle Hill, Glenhaven, Dural and Annangrove were transferred from Castle Hill. Kenthurst and Middle Dural were transferred from Hawkesbury, while Rogans Hill was transferred from Epping.
The suburbs of Kellyville, Norwest and Bella Vista were transferred from Baulkham Hills to Kellyville, while North Rocks was transferred from Baulkham Hills to Epping.
The former seat of Baulkham Hills was won by the Liberal Party in 2019 by an 18.7% margin, but on the new boundaries the margin has increased to 22.4%.
History
The new seat of Castle Hill primarily replaces Baulkham Hills, which had existed since 1991. It has always been a safe Liberal seat. Prior to 1991, much of the same area had been covered by Carlingford from its creation in 1988 to its abolition in 1991.
Carlingford was won in 1988 by Liberal candidate Wayne Merton. Merton then won the new seat of Baulkham Hills in 1991, and held it until retiring in 2011. He served as a minister in the state Coalition government from 1992 to 1993.
While there have been two seats in the Hills since 1988, and they have both been solid Liberal seats, the boundaries of those seats have shifted. The other seat in the area was called The Hills until 2007, and had always been held by Liberal MPs.
Following Merton’s retirement in 2011, Baulkham Hills was won by the Liberal Party’s David Elliott. Elliott was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP for Baulkham Hills David Elliott is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Castle Hill is a very safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Elliott | Liberal | 30,040 | 59.7 | -4.8 | 64.1 |
| Ryan Tracey | Labor | 11,600 | 23.1 | +0.9 | 20.0 |
| Erica Hockley | Greens | 3,937 | 7.8 | -0.1 | 8.4 |
| Heather Boyd | Sustainable Australia | 1,380 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 3.2 |
| Craig Hall | Christian Democrats | 1,868 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 1.9 |
| Linda Newfield | Animal Justice | 1,485 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 1.7 |
| Others | 0.7 | ||||
| Informal | 1,302 | 2.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Elliott | Liberal | 31,658 | 68.7 | -3.1 | 72.4 |
| Ryan Tracey | Labor | 14,434 | 31.3 | +3.1 | 27.6 |
Booths in Castle Hill have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 68.5% in the south-west to 79.6% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 68.5 | 18,420 | 34.5 |
| North | 79.6 | 10,005 | 18.7 |
| South-East | 73.0 | 8,675 | 16.3 |
| Other votes | 69.8 | 10,051 | 18.8 |
| Pre-poll | 74.6 | 6,209 | 11.6 |
Election results in Castle Hill at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
@Hawkeye_au
I’ll post this comment from a different account. My normal account was hijacked and I was impersonated, it wasn’t the real me that posted those things. I apologize for any inconveniences caused and I kindly wish for those two comments to be deleted.
Who is going to run here if Elliot does not change his mind?
@Real Ian – Ahhh ok. I’m with you. Thank you for letting us know.
Comment happily withdrawn.
@Daniel T – Good Question. If not Elliott, the only other options would be coming from Hills Shire Council.
In terms of who would be likely, I’d say Reena Jethi, Frank De Masi or even a return of Michelle Fuentes would be likely. Out of those three, I’d say the favourite would be Fuentes.
Got my normal account back, thanks for your understanding Hawkeye and have a great Merry Christmas!
One I forgot to mention is Deputy Mayor Mark Hodges, who would probably be best placed, given that he has the name recognition across Castle Hill in General.
Either way, I expect Noel McCoy to challenge whatever the results of this will be
i acspect mccoy to winn the preselectionunderstand he is apeeling to state egzecutive and has finance minister Damian tudehopes support wonder who got rid of him from the review panal i am suprised that allex hawke right hand man Ray williams is being allowed to run again in kellyvill given his constent attacks on his own government over carsilhil high and his stunt attacking the hills cowncil to undermine preston
is hawkes factional power still to strong after his work with morrison perrottit tried to get rid of him in 2018 if iva one had to stay suprised hawke backed a back bencher in stead of a minister
The real interest here is who wins liberal preselection.
Short of a disaster the win.candidate will.win here
@Aaron – Following the redistribution, Ray Williams has control of that SEC, due to the fact that the branches around Rouse Hill and Kellyville are all his. He was never going to lose pre-selection. Having said that, yes, Ray has stirred a lot of personal vendettas, especially against those currently serving on Hills Shires Council. His most famous ones are both against Yvonne Keane and Peter Gangemi. Yvonne and Peter are both class and don’t deserve nearly half the BS that they have copped from both David and Ray.
From what I have heard that has stood up for pre-selection, my money is actually on Mark Hodges at this stage. My gut feeling is that David Elliott’s attempt to rail-road his way into the seat is not going down well and the party may just go ahead.
I can’t see anyone else matching Hodges.
Williams seems more interested in attacking the right faction in hills lead buy brobyn preston is mark hodges rightthe centre right are using ben fordim to triy and presure perottit to triy to save Elliott Elliott is clearly a liability perrottits close friend finance minister damian tudehope wont save him as he chalinged him originaly its suprising 2 g b are backing allex hawkes faction until morrison became prime minister they dis liked the hawke faction but since they backed morrison 2gb hoasts have changed there mind
There was specualation that williams wanted to hand over the seat to his factional allie michelle byrne but she lacked supportWilliams must be a key numbers man foor allex hawke as he chose to save him in stead of hawke plus the faction gets to keep Scott farlow foor an other term
so mccoy was first pick foor the right faction and hodgis is second
this is a safe seat but the liberals seem to have stufed up preselections just like in the federal election apart from a few seatslabor seems to hae dun well
when will the liberals find a candadate
Oh seems they need a independent candidate.. but probably a dog named Rover with liberal endorsement will win here
Certain liberal retain
Deputy Mayor of the Hills Shire Mark Hodges is the Liberal candidate for Castle Hill
the liberals will winn this but considering allthough not involved mark hodgis is deputy mayor of hills shier and his right faction is underattack from the upper house inquiry could this hurt liberals vote his factions first pick was noel mccoy
Though currently, it is certain that the LPA will retain both Hills Shire seats in 2023, demographic shifts are favouring Labor. Hills Shire Labor will probably have a very important role in the future (two decades from now) as I think Castle Hill and Rouse Hill will definitely get more marginal.
Seeing that the ALP’s candidate for Mitchell got nearly an 8% swing to him, is it reasonable to expect this swing will be replicated in the state election? Or was most of that swing the result of voter dissatisfaction with Scott Morrison, who is no longer a factor in elections?
Been seeing a lot of signs for both Hodges and Cartwright, more than I’m used to seeing in The Hills around election time.
I agree with @Bajoc in that while I don’t expect anything other than a safe Liberal retain next week, in the long-term, The Hills will likely become more marginal.
I have heard the swing in Mitchell at the federal election owed largely to Alex Hawke and his shenanigans.
Castle Hill and Kellyville had some of the largest swings in the state towards the ALP. Both of the margins have been halved, and Kellyville is now held on single-digits. But these figures (Castle Hill on 10.5, Kellyville on 9.7) are without the prepoll and postal votes. From data I have managed to receive, the prepoll in both electorates was much more left-leaning, much more receptive to the Labor, and even Greens volunteers. These already small margins (by Hills standards) could get even smaller by the time the count have finished. Castle Hill and Kellyville won’t be neglected by the Liberals for a long time to come!
I’m a branch member in this area (Labor), and I have to say, we are very pleased with the result across Kellyville and Castle Hill. And I think we will be running the Liberals a tight competition in the near future. Why? In Mitchell, we got the 2PP figure to 10% as @Bajoc stated. We thought this would swing back to the Liberals with the Morrison factor gone. But it did not. So, what that shows is Labor has a) gained votes in The Hills, and b) retained these voters. As more young families move into the area, I can’t see the Liberals ever getting above 10% on the 2PP in the near future. We did put a lot of effort into the two seats, but Castle Hill especially, and thanks @Nicholas for noticing the amount of Tina Cartwright corflutes we put up. It was a big effort. We got our best result ever in a lot of booths. If you look on Pollbludger, on 2019 results, not a single booth was below 60 2PP for the Liberal Party. Now we have flipped two booths red. I can’t wait to see what we do next.
Congratulations @Onlooker on Labor’s campaign here. I previously lived near Ironbark Ridge Public School (in Kellyville district) which went from 76% Liberal to only 57% Liberal. I think this may be one of the largest in The Hills. But across The Hills there were swings not too far from that.
Both demographic changes (in newer areas) and a large Gen Z population (in more established areas) transitioning into voting age are turning the tide in The Hills.
@ Nicholas just wondering if you think last week results in Aston has some implications for the Hills given demographic similarities I do note Mitchell is much stronger for the Libs. the Hills does tend to be ethnically diverse than the Shire
@Nimalan
I had that thought too. I’m not sure, to be honest. I suspect there are numerous reasons for the result in Aston.
But if the hypothesis is correct, the implication is that the Liberals’ outer suburban heartland is drifting away along with their inner suburban heartland. If this is what’s happening, the Liberals are headed for a catastrophe of much greater magnitude than what we observed at the last federal election.
@Nimalan, I agree there are some similiarities between Aston and Mitchell, although Aston is more diverse demographically. Mitchell is all like Rowville, Wantirna South etc
There is no equivalent to Ferntree Gully, Boronia, Bayswater in Mitchell which makes it very hard for Labor to ever get even close to winning Mitchell.
In terms of ethnic diversity, Mitchell is more diverse than Aston. For example, 45% of households in Mitchell speak a language other than English, while it is only 30% in Aston.
However, it is probably true to say that Aston is more socioeconomically diverse than Mitchell.
@ Nicholas/Adam
good point, agree with you that only parts of Aston are like Mitchell. however, those parts tend to be quite ethnically diverse. The meltdown of the liberal primary vote around Wantirna South was extraordinary. That makes me wonder if Dutton has a problem with ethnic minorities not just Chinese Australians given past racial comments he has made. While I don’t think Mitchell will fall to Labor if the Libs are forced to preferences and the seat technically becomes marginal say 5.7% 2PP for libs it is still a devastating result. A lot of the right wing commentators say that the treatment of Moira Deeming hurt with Pentecostal Christians in Aston but I am thinking whether the opposite is true that being seen as too soft of neo nazi may have caused a backlash among the people of colour
@Nimalan The biggest swings in this seat occurred in Wantirna South where there is the largest Chinese Australian population, which is on top of the big swings in 2022. I agree the Dutton’s problems aren’t just with Chinese Australians but with non-white ethnic minorities as a whole but it’s the backlash among Chinese Australians that cost them the seats that matter in a demographic that not too long ago was pretty favourable to the Libs.
Does this suggest the liberals have problems with the quality of their candidates?
@ Dan M. the Decline in Liberal primary in two Wantirna South booths, Knox Gardens and The Knox School, from a peak in 2019 has been 17% which is simply unprecedented. Aston has a whole declined seen the Liberal primary decline by 15.6% over 4 years from a peak in 2019. If we compare to Kooyong the decline over 6 years from a peak in 2016 to 2022 the decline was 15% and it was just under 12% in Higgins. When those seats were lost the right-wing of the Libs dismissed it as just realignment. Now they seem to blame the voters again this time Victoria as a whole and Peta Credlin blamed Daniel Andrews trip to China seeming to blame changing ethnic demographics. It is only Warringah which has two candidates that were deeply unpopular in 2019 and 2022 that has seen a greater Liberal primary vote decline.
@Nimalan I’d say the hard right and the SkyNews mob seem to blame everything except themselves even though I’d say the number one reason for the disastrous results in both the affluent heartland and seats like Aston is the party abandoning voters that have traditionally always voted for them by pretending they are the US Republican Party and chasing a mythical demographic that barely exists outside of rural white working class areas. That being said, I do think 2019 is the peak of Lib performance in Aston as this seat increasingly resembles neighbouring Chisholm in terms of demographics, being marginal but Lib leaning in normal circumstances.
Agree Dan M, the reason the far right populist message works in the US is due to the electoral college which gives greater weight to smaller rural states. I can understand to some extent why federal libs try this method is that appeals to Queensland being a decentralized state where the majority of its populations lives outside Brisbane which is similar to many US states. However, as you get closer to Brisbane City the results become worse for the LNP they are under performing in Ryan compared to Goldstein, Higgins and Kooyong. However, in Victoria there only real white working class area is La Trobe Valley which the Nats already hold so this populist message is not going to gain any seats in Victoria but as the potential to loose more.
the hills area is much more pro liberal then Aston…… was Tudge more objectionable than Hawke?
The stuff in liberal party internals… you could not make up…. attempted funding for a call centre to stack a seat… Elliott throwing Bombs against his own side…… Ray Williams under parliamentary privilege alleging changing the preselected councillors in the Hill Shjire to help developers… the missing people including Doms brothers……. Hawke has engendered a level of hatred from his own party members.
David Elliott has been on a war-path in the area since his preferred candidate for the Hills Shire Mayoralty was beaten by Peter Gangemi (Twice, as she then ran as an independent and lost that as well). Hawke is the big loser from this election as his support base in NSW Parliament has disintegrated and he is now vulnerable for pre-selection for Mitchell.
TBH, I wouldn’t be surprised if Perrottet challenges Hawke for Mitchell. Based off the current numbers, Perrottet would be in with a big chance of winning as well.