ALP 12.0% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Nick Lalich, since 2008.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Cabramatta covers southeastern parts of the City of Fairfield, including Abbotsbury, Bossley Park, Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Mount Pritchard, Bonnyrigg Heights, Edensor Park, Lansvale and part of Bonnyrigg.
Redistribution
Cabramatta shifted north, gaining the remainder of Canley Vale from Fairfield, Bossley Park from Prospect, and Abbotsbury from Mulgoa. The seat also lost Bonnyrigg Heights and part of Bonnyrigg to Liverpool. These changes reduced the Labor two-party-preferred margin from 25.5% to 19.6%. My estimated two-candidate-preferred margin against the independent reduced from 12.9% to 12.0%, but does not factor in the new areas.
History
The electoral district of Cabramatta has existed since 1981. It has been held by four MPs, all members of the Labor Party.
The seat was first won in 1981 by Eric Bedford, who had held Fairfield since 1968. He served as a minister in the Wran government from 1976 until his retirement in 1985.
The 1986 by-election was won by Fairfield deputy mayor John Newman. He held the seat until his death in 1994. Phuong Ngo, a former independent candidate for Cabramatta, was convicted of Newman’s murder.
The 1994 by-election was won by Reba Meagher. She was appointed to the Labor government’s ministry following the 2003 election. She served in the ministry until 2008, when she was removed from the ministry as part of events which saw the downfall of NSW Premier Morris Iemma. Her final portfolio was as Health Minister after the 2007 state election.
The 2008 Cabramatta by-election saw a massive 21.8% swing against the ALP. The seat was won by Fairfield mayor Nick Lalich. He was challenged by Liberal candidate Dai Le. The swing was one of the biggest in NSW history. It would have been a record prior to the by-election, but was surpassed by a 23.1% swing in the seat of Ryde, which held a by-election on the same day. Both seats’ records were beaten at the 2010 Penrith by-election.
Nick Lalich has been re-elected three times. Nick Lalich continued to serve as Mayor of Fairfield while sitting in Parliament, until he stepped down at the 2012 council election.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Nick Lalich is not running for re-election.
- Mark Smaling (Liberal Democrats)
- Roz Chia Davis (Greens)
- Kate Hoang (Independent)
- Courtney Nguyen (Liberal)
- Tri Vo (Labor)
- Randa Moussa (Animal Justice)
Assessment
With Dai Le now out of the picture as a federal MP, it’s likely this seat will be an easy retain for Labor, although if the local Carbone party is emboldened by their federal success they could find another serious candidate here and threaten Labor’s hold.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Lalich | Labor | 23,616 | 49.9 | -10.0 | 48.7 |
| Austin Le | Liberal | 7,018 | 14.8 | -13.4 | 20.6 |
| Dai Le | Independent | 12,250 | 25.9 | +25.9 | 19.6 |
| Christopher James | Greens | 2,384 | 5.0 | -0.1 | 5.3 |
| Phuoc Vo | Independent | 2,075 | 4.4 | +4.4 | 3.4 |
| Others | 2.5 | ||||
| Informal | 2,102 | 4.3 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Lalich | Labor | 25,089 | 62.9 | -4.3 | 62.0 |
| Dai Le | Independent | 14,818 | 37.1 | +4.3 | 38.0 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nick Lalich | Labor | 27,375 | 75.5 | +8.3 | 69.6 |
| Austin Le | Liberal | 8,871 | 24.5 | -8.3 | 30.4 |
Booths in Cabramatta have been split into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.2% in the west to 79.8% in the east.
There was a strong independent vote (mostly for Dai Le), ranging from 17.2% in the west to 30.4% in the centre. It’s worth noting that a substantial part of the west was not part of the seat in 2019, so there were no votes cast there for Le.
| Voter group | IND prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 17.2 | 55.2 | 14,069 | 27.0 |
| Central | 30.4 | 74.4 | 10,593 | 20.3 |
| East | 26.9 | 79.8 | 8,047 | 15.4 |
| Pre-poll | 29.7 | 81.3 | 11,102 | 21.3 |
| Other votes | 19.7 | 65.1 | 8,359 | 16.0 |
Election results in Cabramatta at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, independent candidates and the Liberal Party.
The fact that Carbone still has yet to officially enter the contest seems to be an indication of a lack of confidence in his own chances of success. I would say he is right to doubt them – contrary to the Tele’s proclamations of the “disastrous blow” his candidacy would be to Labor, there’s little reason to believe he is going to repeat the lighting-in-a-bottle circumstances behind Keneally’s loss in Fowler.
@adda he has
yes carbone might be running but can he realy be believed labor is running a Vietnamese candadate this time dont know him but Carbone and hayes made a big deal that a local was not chosen from the multi cultural seat now he is rubnning any wayaparently he used to be close to tripodi back in the day befor e he desided to support the liberals and sky news
it seems the fairfieldmembers houng carbone dont realy support the party just in politics to be a corear politicianwonder if Carbone has links to hayes he waited until Tu le had no branch support then anowsed his bid thought fairfield would be a stronger seat for him at that way he could run rthe same line he used in fowler
Ben, do you have a source that has him officially on the ballot paper? The most I’ve seen from searching articles is that he claims to have filled out a nomination form but has yet to submit it. ABC has him listed as a candidate but with the caveat that he “has yet to make clear whether he will nominate”.
@adda they are sometimes slow to correct that stuff on one seat they have have the alp listed as the seat belonging to the party that has formed government so the fact they’ve added him as a candidate il take as right until it shows otherwise as why would they if he wasnt
They literally point out that he hasn’t submitted his candidacy. He is only listed there indicatively.
William Bowe on Pollbludger is usually up to date on this stuff and his information aligns with mine. And I can’t find a single article that actually confirms his submission. Maybe he will do it sometime in the next few days (deadline should be Mar 8).
@adda ok I’ve been relying on abc for up to date information my mistake thanks.
not sure ifcarbone will run isnt there a large Vietnamese population in Cabramatter Carbone is not vietnamese he made a big deal of labor not listening to the members suprised he will not contest fairfield he clearly is anti labor he likes appearing on sky news and 2gb
@aaron im sure hes just waiting for the 11th hour. are you sure? i could of sworn Carbone was a vietnamese name
Ben, Frank Carbone is of Italian origin, but his background is suitable for the wider Fairfield council area which does have a fairly significant proportion of Eastern European migrants (I think mostly Greek or Slavic origin). Former Mayor Nick Lalich had a Slavic background (born in Egypt to refugee parents who fled Yugoslavia).
I think he would have been better running for Fairfield, and then letting one of his fellow councillors contest Cabramatta.
That was sarcasm
Yoh An, is correct Fairfield Council has a large European community (both Italian and Slavic) but they tend to be concentrated in the more affluent parts such as Abbotsbury a reflection of an earlier wave of migration. The Greek community tends be concentrated in the greater St George District and the Eastern part of Canterbury such as Earlwood etc. That community started in Marrickville and moved outwards. There is also a large Assyrian/Chaldean community and i am trying to find out if David Saliba is from that community.
no think he is italian fairfield would be a better option butwhere is saliba from there is a also a asirian comunity bowens mentore was the late former cowncilor anwar koshaba his son nenos is no longer on cowncil Carbone will probaly anowse on wednesday but for his success on cowncil half his cowncilors dont even have profiles the only other person on the le carbone ticket with preveous expirence in parliament was Andrew rohen former liberal mp but he was aparently a bad mp not doing much
Aparently Di le is still serving on cowncil how can she be an effective mp when she is on cowncil while serving full time in canbra maybi labor can retake Fowler and it will be like wentworth how ever an independent took it again maybi lalich was not a verry good mp
its official Frank Carbone is not contsting the election. Labor breatheing easy
so carbone is like cumberlind cowncilor steve christou a lot of anti labor rants uin his case attacking granvil mp julia finn could carbone still run maybi he did not think he had enough support
Can carbonestill run he has until the end of today
So carbone must have realized he could not winn with labor agring to his demands he all ready cost labor fowler but desbite Hadleys excitement abbout labor loosing one seat the liberals lost a lot more
Labor continues to fail Cabramatta. A non-entity promoted as a 2023 candidate. Hard to point to any significant benefit for Cabramatta under Lalich’s stewarship. In-fighting and bickering by local party leadership caused by poor leadership by the right-wing Labor overlords of Sussex street continues to limit the opportunity for talented locals to rise to represent the electors. Now, Carbone has refused to run there are no true peoples representatives. Mediocrity, apathy and self-serving conduct reigns and the locals will be the political losers once again with a Labor win.
I wonder why Frank Carbone pondered running in Cabramatta and not Fairfield. It looks like Kate Hoang is the only Ind candidate here. She recently quit the Labor party.
Carbone announced he is not running for Cabramatta. Kate Hoang is the only independent. It’s interested to see what the independent could do.
@John
People whinge about Kristina Keneally wasn’t a local being parachuted in Fowler. Tri Vo a local wins through a rank and file vote and your still complaining. You can’t have it both ways.
i dont think kate hong wil do very well she was a liberal suporter then backed kenearley at least tri vo is a local
Even if Carbone somehow submitted now, It’s too late for him to win because candidates that announce they are running 3 weeks before a state election don’t have time to get their message across and push their campaign.
If he was serious about running he would have announced in January or before.
The trade off wasn’t there for Carbone. Similar to Clover Moore when she had to pick between Mayor of Sydney and State MP for Sydney.
Carbone wields more power as Mayor of Fairfield than he would as an independent cross-bench MP, especially if the government is not in minority. Would be an utter waste of time
He doesn’t need to announce early since he’s already got a platform as mayor so his message is already out there
Well with Carbone out of the picture, this will be a safe Labor win. Labor preselected a local Vietnamese candidate in a rank and file preselection so the KK drama won’t be a factor here. The only credible challenger, Kate Hoang, is nowhere near as well known as Dai Le and has some controversies from her past support for David Coleman and KK.
Hoang will get <4% for sure
I would have thought this is no contest but Kate Hoang seems to have a huge following on Facebook and I can’t even find a Facebook profile for the Labor candidate?
Craig Kelly had the highest engagement of any federal politician on Facebook circa Jan 2022 and it did him little good. Not that I am suggesting Kate Hoang is Craig Kelly, but activity and following on Facebook is not a useful indicator of mass appeal.
Sportsbet has an independent taking this seat at $13.00. I understand betting odds are not the means and ends all. But those odds are just too long to ignore. If there was something going down in this seat those odds would certainly be shorter by now. This seat is a no contest. Labor retain.
Even on the eve of elections, betting odds can be blindsided by outsiders. I remember Waite in SA 2022 still having odds of 12 or even higher like 14 or 15 the day before the election. Labor ended up taking the seat.
That said, the independent does not have a chance in this contest.
Odds of 12 or higher for Labor if that wasn’t clear in the above comment.
I’m tipping Labor’s 2PP will increase to 65% at least (vs LIB).
Kate Hoang is not Dai Le. She doesn’t have a local council profile like Dai Le does. She does have strong traction within the Vietnamese community but she can’t just soley rely on one ethnic group or geographical area. She may struggle to get votes in the western suburbs, which are less Vietnamese than the east e.g. Bossley Park, Edensor Park. No surprise that Labor is treating this like a safe seat. Also, Kate Hoang was quite a late entry. I wouldn’t be shocked if she comes third in PVs and/or gets over 10%.
This seat is overlooked as it’s a safe Labor seat.
I wrote in the “next day review” thread that Cabramatta and Liverpool had big 2PP swings to the Liberals. The election results were weird.
6.5% drop in Labor’s PV in Cabramatta. 6% 2PP swing TO the Libs. What the heck? Also, LDP – 10%, AJP – 5%.
Some factors why Cabramatta has bucked the trend (in my opinion):
– This could be the Dai Le Effect where voters were turned off by the Labor brand but not all of them wanted to swing to the Liberals.
– Ongoing resentment to Labor for the Kristina Keneally debacle.
– Votes going to Kate Hoang but then getting exhausted.
– Retirement of the local member.
– Unknown Labor candidate.
– Residual anti-vax/anti-lockdown anger.