Bathurst – NSW 2023

NAT 17.9%

Incumbent MP
Paul Toole, since 2011.

Geography
Central West NSW. Bathurst covers the major centres of Bathurst and Lithgow, and all of Bathurst, Blayney, Lithgow and Oberon local government areas, along with a small part of the Mid-Western regional council.

Redistribution
Bathurst expanded slightly to the north, taking in more of the Mid-Western council area from Upper Hunter. This change made no difference to the seat’s margin.

History
Bathurst has existed as an electoral district since 1859. It existed as a single-member district for all but three elections in the 1920s, when it expanded to be a multi-member district elected by proportional representation.

The seat was a marginal seat between the Labor Party and the Country Party in the middle part of the 20th century, but since 1981 it has been dominated by the ALP, who have won it at all elections except for 1988, when it was won by the Liberal Party, and 2011, when it was won by the Nationals.

When Bathurst was restored as a single-member district in 1927, it was won by the ALP’s Gus Kelly, who had first won one of Bathurst’s seats in 1925. Kelly held the seat until 1932, when he lost to the Country Party’s Gordon Wilkins. At the next election in 1935, Kelly won the seat back. Kelly served as a minister for the entire length of the Labor state government from 1941 to 1965, and held Bathurst until his death in 1967.

The 1967 by-election was won by the Country Party’s Clive Osborne, who won a three-cornered contest on Liberal preferences. Osborne held the seat throughout the 1970s.

The redistribution before the 1981 election saw the strong Labor town of Lithgow moved from Blue Mountains to Bathurst. The sitting Labor Member for Blue Mountains, Mick Clough, moved with the town of Lithgow, and defeated Osborne’s re-election bid in 1981. Clough had held Blue Mountains since 1978.

Clough held Bathurst until 1988, when he lost to the Liberal Party’s David Berry. Clough won the seat back in 1991, and held it until his retirement in 1999.

Bathurst was won in 1999 by former Lithgow mayor Gerard Martin, running for the ALP. He won re-election in 2003 and 2007.

In 2011, Martin retired and Nationals candidate Paul Toole defeated Labor candidate Dale Turner with a massive 36.7% swing, the largest in the state. Toole was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.

Toole joined the ministry in 2014, and in 2021 he was elected Nationals leader and thus deputy premier.

Candidates

  • Craig Sinclair (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Kay Nankervis (Greens)
  • Burchell Wilson (Liberal Democrats)
  • Antony Zbik (Legalise Cannabis)
  • Michael Begg (Sustainable Australia)
  • Paul Toole (Nationals)
  • Martin Ticehurst (Independent)
  • Cameron Shaw (Labor)

Assessment
Bathurst is a safe Nationals seat.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Paul Toole Nationals 28,030 55.1 -4.8 55.1
Beau Riley Labor 10,438 20.5 -6.8 20.5
Brenden May Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 7,498 14.8 +14.8 14.8
David Harvey Greens 2,815 5.5 -3.6 5.5
Michael Begg Sustainable Australia 1,317 2.6 +2.6 2.6
Timothy Hansen Keep Sydney Open 735 1.4 +1.5 1.4
Informal 1,574 3.0

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Paul Toole Nationals 30,130 67.9 +2.1 67.9
Beau Riley Labor 14,242 32.1 -2.1 32.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Bathurst have been split into four areas. Polling places in the two main cities of Bathurst and Lithgow have been grouped together, with the remainder of the electorate split into North and South.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 61.9% in Lithgow to 70.9% in the south.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.5% in Lithgow to 21.5% in the south.

Voter group SFF prim % NAT 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 21.5 70.9 11,910 21.0
Bathurst 12.8 65.9 11,361 20.0
Lithgow 12.5 61.9 4,895 8.6
North 16.2 69.6 4,243 7.5
Pre-poll 13.5 70.2 18,319 32.3
Other votes 16.2 65.3 6,060 10.7

Election results in Bathurst at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

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15 COMMENTS

  2. Marko, I think the reason for Bathurst’s transformation away from a Labor leaning seat is that the ALP have lost support amongst ‘blue collar’ industrial workers in the mining and agricultural sectors.

    I see a seat like Bathurst corresponding to the American Midwest (similar to the likes of Kentucky/West Virginia) which have also trended away from Democrats over the past decade or so.

  4. The change does not quite make sense. If 55%. Lithgow and 45%
    Bathurst would be line ball
    Suspect Toole has a large personal.vote more than 10% also suspect he may not stay around in opposition
    So may retire

  5. I remember I laughed in 2019 when I saw Keep Sydney Open contending in Bathurst, which is 200km away from Sydney.

    There was a 37% 2PP swing in 2011 in Bathurst when Labor was wiped out. Can anyone tell me if there has been a bigger swing?

  6. I agree – like Capricornia. I think a seat like this is still winnable for Labor if they win the next election and choose to bring the green sector to the area.
    @ Votante not 2PP, but Labor’s primary went up 37 in Baldivis in the 2021 WA election. 36 in Ryde 2011 from Labor 2pp, can’t think of anything more than those, unless you consider swings over two elections i.e southern river 2017/2021 44% to ALP.

  7. As long as Toole is the national party candidate the nats should retain. This is about half of Mr Gee’s federal seat of Calare. Could this complicate matters and cause a big swing against the Nats?

  9. This one may have slipped under the radar but the Nats actually got a swing to them and now the margin is virtually the same as it was in 2011. This seat had a 37% swing in 2011 and was the biggest in Australian political history. Lithgow was once a Labor town but now 60% Nats TPP in a an election that the Labor did very well. It seems to be similar to what has occurred in the La Trobe valley.

  10. Now that Paul Toole has had to fall on his sword, it will be interesting to see if he sticks around. Even though he won with a huge margin only a few weeks ago, Bathurst could get interesting at a by election especially if Labor choose a good local candidate. It is a seat with a history of violent swings.

  11. Dubbo could also fall at the next election to an independent, he is inexperienced and should never have been elected, today’s events wouldn’t have happened if the independent won in 2019.

  12. I don’t really think this seat is in play for Labor for the foreseeable future. The area has trended conservative over the last 10-20 years both at a state level and federal level – I don’t think the consistent increases in the National vote is just to do with Paul Toole being a good local member.

    As evidence, at the 2022 federal election, the corresponding seat of Calare swung further to the Nationals on a 2PP basis vs Labor against the state trend. Federal Labor was winning booths in Lithgow with around 70% 2PP in 2007 whereas in 2022 the Nationals were winning those booths by around a 60/40 margin. At the 2007 federal election when Bathurst and Lithgow were included in the marginal seat of Macquarie (whose 2PP swing to Labor was +6.57%), these areas swung less than that, some booths even swinging to the Liberals (e.g. Bathurst central). And then at a state level, Paul Toole came out of the 2023 state election with the same margin he had from the 2011 landslide despite the cumulative 20% 2PP state-wide swing to Labor over the 2015, 2019, and 2023 elections. Given these trends, I find it hard to see how the seat could be in play for Labor under current conditions.

  13. Agree GPPS, I pointed out previously this is similar to the trend in the La Trobe valley (VIC). However, Labor probably accepts this as they are now stronger in Blue Mountains, Bega and South Coast than they were in the past. The Federal Division of Calare was Labor held during the Hawke/Keating era.

  14. Labor is always poor in most regional/rural seats nationwide, but throughout history that has particularly been true in regional/rural NSW. Seats like Albury, Bathurst, Clarence, Coffs Harbour, Cootamundra, Dubbo, Myall Lakes, Northern Tablelands, Oxley, Port Macquarie, Tamworth, etc on the state level and Calare, Cowper, Farrer, Lyne, New England, Parkes, Riverina, etc (in fact even Page these days too) are Coalition strongholds and won’t be won by anyone but the Coalition. In fact, Labor only has the federal seat of Richmond and the state seat of Lismore and the Greens only have Ballina for one reason: hippies/alternative lifestylers who live in places like Byron Bay and Lismore.

  15. Labor at some stage has held almost every country seat at the new state level. Given a good candidate and the right circumstances this is still possible. If Mr Toole pulled the plug and the nats picked a bad candidate then a loss is possible. I point out too Mr Toole has a huge personal vote 10 to 15%

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