Bankstown – NSW 2023

ALP 20.5%

Incumbent MP

  • Tania Mihailuk (IND), member for Bankstown since 2011.
  • Jihad Dib, member for Lakemba since 2015.

Geography
South-western Sydney. Bankstown covers central parts of the City of Canterbury-Bankstown, including the suburbs of Bankstown, Chullora, Greenacre, Mount Lewis, Punchbowl, and parts of Narwee and Wiley Park.

Redistribution
Despite the name, the seat of Bankstown primarily replaces the former seat of Lakemba, along with a small piece of the former seat of Bankstown.

The seat of Bankstown takes in the suburbs of Chullora, Greenacre, Mount Lewis, Punchbowl and parts of Wiley Park and Narwee from the former seat of Lakemba and the suburb of Bankstown from the former seat of Bankstown.

The former seat of Lakemba lost the suburb of Lakemba to Canterbury, and lost Riverwood and the remainder of Narwee to Oatley.

The former seat of Bankstown lost Birrong, Chester Hill, Potts Hill, Sefton and part of Bass Hill and Yagoona to Auburn. Part of Yagoona was transferred to East Hills, while Lansdowne and Villawood were transferred to Fairfield.

The former seat of Bankstown had a Labor margin of 13.8% and Lakemba had a margin of 22.4%. The new seat has a margin of 20.4%.

History
The seat of Bankstown was created as a successor to the former seat of Lakemba, while also taking in a smaller part of a former seat by the name of Bankstown.

The electoral district of Lakemba had been created in 1927. From 1927 until 2019, it has always been won by the ALP.

Fred Stanley won the district of Lakemba in 1927. The seat was expected to be won by member for St George, George Cann, but he was expelled from the ALP after opposing Jack Lang’s efforts to centralise power in his hands. Stanley held the seat for the next two decades. In 1949 Stanley didn’t follow the ALP line in casting a vote for a vacancy in the Legislative Council, along with three other ALP MPs. The four MPs were also suspected of having taken cash bribes in exchange for their votes. He was expelled from the ALP in 1950, and lost Lakemba at the 1950 election to the official ALP candidate, Stan Wyatt.

Wyatt held the seat until 1964, when he retired. He served as party whip from 1959 to 1964.

Vince Durick held Lakemba from 1964 until 1984. Wes Davoren followed him, serving from 1984 until his retirement in 1995.

Tony Stewart won Lakemba in 1995. Stewart moved to Bankstown in 1999 to make way for Morris Iemma, whose seat of Hurstville had been abolished by the redistribution. Stewart was re-elected in Bankstown 2003 and 2007. Stewart served as a minister for two months in late 2008, but was removed after he was accused of harrassing a staff member. Stewart is retiring at the upcoming election.

Iemma had won Hurstville in 1991, when it was a highly marginal seat, and he strengthened the ALP’s position in the area. Morris Iemma was appointed to the Carr government’s ministry after the 1999 election, and he worked his way up to the position of Health Minister.

When Bob Carr retired in 2005, Morris Iemma was elected ALP leader and Premier. He won another term for the Labor government in 2007. Following that election, he embarked on plans for privatisation of the NSW electricity industry. These plans deeply divided the ALP, and resulted in Iemma clashing with the ALP state conference. Following these events, Iemma resigned as Premier in September 2008 after losing the support of key powerbrokers.

Iemma resigned from Parliament soon after, triggering a by-election in Lakemba. By-elections were also held in Ryde, Cabramatta and Port Macquarie. The Lakemba by-election was won by Canterbury mayor Robert Furolo with a 13.5% swing against the ALP. Furolo was re-elected in 2011.

Furolo retired in 2015, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Jihad Dib. Dib was re-elected in 2019.

The electoral district of Bankstown has existed since 1927, and has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1927 by James McGirr. He had first won election to the Legislative Assembly as the sole Labor member for Cootamundra in 1922, succeeding his brother Greg, who had moved to a seat in Sydney. In 1925, James moved to the seat of Cumberland, which covered much of what is now Western Sydney.

In 1927, proportional representation was replaced by single-member districts, and McGirr won the new seat of Bankstown. He became a minister when the ALP gained power in 1941. In 1947, Premier William McKell was appointed Governor-General by Prime Minister Chifley, and McGirr was elected Labor leader, and Premier.

McGirr had a difficult period as Premier, losing a standoff with his party organisation over the disendorsement of Labor members, and then losing his majority at the 1950 election, forcing him to rely on the support of ex-Labor independents. He moved from the seat of Bankstown to the new seat of Liverpool at the 1950 election. He resigned as Premier and Member for Liverpool in 1952.

McGirr was succeeded in Bankstown by Spence Powell in 1950. He held the seat until his retirement in 1962.

Nick Kearns won Bankstown in 1962. He served briefly as a frontbencher in the Labor opposition before the party won power in 1976, but never served as a minister. He died in 1980.

The 1980 by-election was won by Ric Mochalski, also of the ALP. He was re-elected in 1981 and 1984, but he was forced to resign in 1986 due to charges against him to do with the collapse of a property trust in which he was involved.

The by-election in early 1987 was won by ALP candidate Doug Shedden, a Bankstown councillor. He held the seat until his retirement in 1999.

At the 1999 election, a redistribution saw the seat of Hurstville abolished. The Member for Hurstville, Morris Iemma, moved to Lakemba, while Member for Lakemba Tony Stewart moved to Bankstown.

Stewart was re-elected in 2003 and 2007. Stewart served as a minister for two months in late 2008, but was removed after he was accused of harrassing a staff member.

Stewart retired in 2011, and Bankstown was won by Tania Mihailuk. She was re-elected in 2015 and 2019. Mihailuk resigned from the ALP in October 2022 after failing to win preselection for the amalgamated seat of Bankstown and criticising her party.

Candidates

Assessment
Bankstown is a safe Labor seat.

2019 result – Lakemba

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jihad Dib Labor 27,528 61.7 +4.4 60.2
Rashid Bhuiyan Liberal 10,031 22.5 +1.8 24.0
Karl Schubert Christian Democrats 3,170 7.1 -5.7 5.4
Emmet De Bhaldraithe Greens 2,041 4.6 -2.9 4.6
Omar Najjar Keep Sydney Open 988 2.2 +2.2 1.5
Dorlene Abou-Haidar Animal Justice 857 1.9 +1.9 1.2
Others 3.0
Informal 2,916 6.1

2019 two-party-preferred result – Lakemba

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jihad Dib Labor 29,245 72.4 +0.9 70.5
Rashid Bhuiyan Liberal 11,136 27.6 -0.9 29.5

2019 result – Bankstown

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tania Mihailuk Labor 23,897 54.6 -1.7
George Zakhia Liberal 13,293 30.4 -0.9
Saud Abu-Samen Independent 3,856 8.8 +8.8
James Rooney Greens 2,684 6.1 +1.7
Informal 2,867 6.2

2019 two-party-preferred result – Bankstown

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tania Mihailuk Labor 25,735 63.8 -0.2
George Zakhia Liberal 14,590 36.2 +0.2

Booth breakdown

Booths in Bankstown have been split into three parts: north, south-east and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 67.7% in the west to 74.2% in the north.

Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 71.3 9,915 21.8
West 67.7 8,768 19.3
North 74.2 8,703 19.1
Pre-poll 71.0 9,085 20.0
Other votes 68.5 9,066 19.9

Election results in Bankstown at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

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85 COMMENTS

  1. I think religious conservatives in Western Sydney does play a role on why Arabic speakers have retained their culture and language even among the third generation. This is possibly one factor why NSW Labor is more conservative than the national Labor counterparts. I do point out the Arabic speakers in South West Sydney are looked down upon due to their past stereotypes of gang violence similar to the Sudanese in Melbourne

  2. The big difference between Lebanese in South West Sydney and those in Parramatta and North West Sydney is that the latter are overwhelmingly Christian (Maronite in particular) and the former are overwhelmingly Muslim. There was not much Muslim immigration until the civil war in 1975 whereas there has been a significant Lebanese Christian population in Australia since the 19th century. Many NSW country towns had major shops owned by Lebanese families – they often sent their kids to Catholic boarding schools and became assimilated. Many of the Lebanese Muslim population came from the poorest and least educated parts of the country -Sunnis from Tripoli and Shia from the South. They coalesced into the Lakemba Bankstown area. Previously there had been a lot of Poles and eastern Europeans but their kids presumably moved up the social ladder and moved out and became indistinguishable from the wider European descended population.

  3. Indeed, Lebanese Christians have tended to largely blend in within a generation or two.

    How many Australians would know that e.g. Bob Katter or former Vic premier Steve Bracks are of Lebanese background?

  4. Correct much of the Lebanese community in NW Sydney is Maronite especially around Oatlands. The community started in Harris Park but moved out here as they became more affluent. I would also point out Marie Bashir, Daryl Melham, Michael Sukkar, Jacqui Trad are of Lebanese Christian background. I guess sharing festivals, religion, first names, diet etc with angloceltic majority made the process of assimilation easier

  6. I know Daryl Melham and he has always lived in south western sydney.The people post 1975 came as a result of being forced out by the Lebanese civil war. So they were different to those of 1950s or early periods. The katters I think dated back to the turn of the century.. not sure. Australia is becoming more and more multi cultural which is a great thing for our country.

  7. There is also Sir Nicholas Shehadie (former Lord Mayor of Sydney), Barbara Perry and Alexander Alam. Interestingly, in the United States there is a movement for a MENA (Middle Eastern and North African) category on the Census led by Muslim Arabs who prefer to identify as people of colour while Christian Arabs generally are comfortable to identify as White.

  10. Dan I live currently in Her old
    Electorate I don’t know…when she left the alp Latham Was very supportive then he has his
    Stunt to create his own casual vacancy then recontest with the
    Hope of increasing the onp numbers. I plus 1 could equal 2..
    But she has problems in that the
    Bullying inquiry will potentially harm her. I’d I had to guess I don’t know..As an alp member disgusted with her actions I cannot ask her. Yes it would not surprise me if she stood.
    But there is no evidence only
    a rumour

  11. Yes, I was trying to think of already-prominent pollies who could fill Latham’s vacancy when Latham is re-elected, and the shoe might fit in that regard. Or they could just nominate any senior Joe Blow in the party, or some One Nation Legislative Assembly candidate, which is probably more likely to be honest. The main candidate I can think of from One Nation’s 2019 LH run is Ben Casey who racked up 13% in Camden. Will be one to watch

  13. Labor have taken Bankstown at-large for granted for too long. With Tania resigning from the party it is not impossible that ALP lose the seat.

    I agree with Moderate that Mihailuk’s damning accusations against Minns are likely to carry more weight than from nearly anyone else, especially after being so close to him. With East Hills and Bankstown swinging ever so slightly to the Libs last election and Banks being kept blue this could be an early indication of a changing demographic and voter mood in Western Sydney and Bankstown at-large.

    I don’t agree that the ALP will not win Stew. It’s the most likely outcome with a small chance for Tania’s success as an independent.

  14. OPV makes its difficult for Tania to win as an independent here, just like the situation with the teals in the north. The only realistic way for her to win would be for the Libs and the right wing minor parties to run dead and their preferences flow strongly to her which is difficult with OPV.

  15. Tania’s allegations had already been made 10 years ago and were not credible. Tania will most likely not contest Bankstown and if she did will not win. The Bulk of the seat of Bankstown is the old seat of Lakemba. Only a small part of Bankstown overlaps with her old seat. The liberals have absolutely no chance here.
    But why look at her unfounded allegations when there are proven allegations against the Liberals and The BARILARO affair.. his NYC job

  16. Jihad Dib has a strong personal popularity and profile. Most of his old Lakemba seat is in the new Bankstown seat. I can’t see Tania being the next Dai Le. I’d say Labor holds even if Tania runs.

  17. Could Tania not have just moved to Leppington, or was it already promised to someone else based on factional deals?

  18. Not only was Tania the member for Bankstown, she actually lived in the seat of East Hills (I believe she lives in Padstow). So for her to make the jump all the way to Leppington from there would make no sense.

    As for whether it would make factional sense, I’ll leave that to Mick Q to answer as I don’t know what faction of Labor would control Leppington.

  19. Further to that (and I should have mentioned it in my previous post), I believe East Hills is controlled by the Left of the Labor Party (Not sure if the Ferguson Left or the Albanese Left). So Tania transferring into East Hills wouldn’t have happened.

  20. Hawkeye, as you are familiar with the preselection process/es of the Liberal Party, do they have a similar system where certain seats are reserved for each faction (moderate, soft right and hard right) or is it more of a free for all where anyone can contest preselection for a seat regardless of faction.

    If it is a free system, then I see that as being ‘fairer’ compared to restricting preselection to candidates from a certain faction only.

  21. I don’t think it’s necessarily restricted for the Libs but it’s just that in some electorates, the branches are almost entirely controlled or dominated by one faction which means that those electorate’s preselections are de facto restricted to certain factions only. Of course preselection upsets can happen like in Willoughby and in Bennelong.

  22. Hawkeye_au, it may not make sense, but it was a way for her to keep being an MP. Instead she decided to burn her bridges.

  23. Wilson, I think part of the reason Tania defected from Labor and became an independent was because of her ‘demotion’ from cabinet. That was the result of her speaking out against corruption within local Bankstown council.

  24. Part of Tania ‘s reason for jumping ship is she did not have a seat. AUBURN Linda Voltz unopposed. Same for Bankstown and East Hills she couldn’t have won preselection in any of those. There was talk of her moving to Fairfield and Guy Moving to Cabramatta but after Dai Le’s win in Fowler it Was not seen as a good idea also the Rank and File in Fairfield and Cabramatta would not have accepted her and maybe not accept Guy either. There were rumours that Frank Cabone Fairfield major maybe would have nominated for Fairfield.. the net result was Fairfield was not available to her either. Then there was an upper house vacancy and her nemesis Khal Asfour was chosen not her hence her reaction. Quite frankly if Bankstown had remained in its previous boundaries she would have been opposed for preselection there too

  25. There’s a difference between Tania Mihailuk running in Fairfield and Kristina Keneally running in Fowler. A fair chunk of the old Bankstown is in the post-redistributed Fairfield. It isn’t that much of a parachute if Tania were to run in Fairfield. I wonder why she didn’t choose to run (or get preselected or support to run) in Fairfield now that it’s vacant.

  26. @Votante I think Tu Le is running for Fairfield Labor preselection and her profile has been significantly elevated given what happened in Fowler which would make it difficult for Mihailuk to win preselection. Plus, if Frank Carbone runs, Fairfield won’t be as safe as it normally is though Labor should still be able to win.

  28. Well looks like Tania will have zero chances of winning in 2023 now. One Nation is not going to be very popular with the large Muslim community in the seat.

  29. @Dan M. Tania will run for the upper house. If she is second on the ticket, after Mark Latham, her chances depend on how the whole state votes, rather than just Bankstown.

  30. Mihailuk clearly was already planning on quitting regardless of being ousted from the frontbench or not. She knew she would be sacked for her parliamentary privilege. So she would have defected anyway.

    She probably talked with One Nation MONTHS before the incident. Either they made a corrupt deal with her as do allot of politicians. Or she wanted to shift to the upper house but knew she couldn’t be preselected? Either way she is doing this for political gain. It’s all politically motivated.

    She will have 0 impact on Labor’s chances at the election. Labor actually may be in better position now that she is gone. Enjoy your retirement Tanya!

  31. I think she’ll be elected if second on the PHON upper house ticket Daniel. If the likes of Rod Roberts can do it so can she lol.

  33. Don’t agree onp will win 2 easily. They need 9% which is not guaranteed.. there is an important question onp needs to answer…Mark by contesting the 2023 election creates his own casual vacancy.. who fills this vacancy in the event onp wins 0 or 1 seat? Onp refuse to answer this as this endangers their chances
    ?

  34. mihayliouks upper house move makes little sence it seems desigbned to link obead to minns via asfour but now he has been droped and the liberal dominiated comitty report got no coveridge givenbanks town would have one of the lowist votes and with asfour gone what is mihayliouk going to run on it seems latham is campaigning to triy and gain the vote nile would have recieved with his attacks on transgender and calls to incerease discrimination of churches but has made little impact i dont know if he will even get re elected him self the fact she is not running in bankstown shows she knows one nation has no chance

  35. i dought the averige person i only heard alan jones praise mihayliuouk she was a regular on sky news but as a long term suporter of minns it makes litle sence now he is leader she said labor is unfit to govin because of one upper house candadate it seems to show she neverwas truely a labor suporter just used the party to further her corear

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