GRN 10.0% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Jamie Parker, since 2011.
Geography
Inner Sydney. Balmain covers the entirety of Leichhardt local government area, including Balmain, Leichhardt, Lilyfield, Annandale and Rozelle, as well as Glebe and part of Ultimo in the City of Sydney.
History
Balmain has existed as an electoral district in various forms since 1880. In that time it has covered a variety of different areas all around the Balmain peninsula. The original seat was created as a single-member district in 1880.
Back in the 19th century, districts would gain extra MPs if the population in the area grew, instead of experiencing regular redistributions. Balmain quickly gained extra MLAs, gaining a second in 1882, a third in 1885 and a fourth in 1889. Ironically the four-seat district of 1889 bore a close resemblance to the modern seat’s boundaries.
In 1894, Balmain was abolished and replaced by the single-member districts of South Balmain, North Balmain, Leichhardt and Annandale.
In 1904, Balmain was re-created when Balmain Southand Balmain Northwere merged. It elected a Liberal MP in 1904, but in 1907 it was won by the ALP’s John Storey in 1907. He had previously held Balmain Northfrom 1901 to 1904.
The NSW Labor Party split in 1916 over conscription, with most of the Holman government, including William Holman itself, expelled. Storey became leader of the remnants of the ALP in 1917.
In the lead-up to the 1920 election the seat of Balmain was expanded to cover parts of the neighbouring seats of Annandale, Camperdown, Darling Harbour, Glebe and Rozelle, and became a five-member district elected by proportional representation.
At the 1920 election, the expanded Balmain elected four Labor members and one Nationalist. The ALP won a slim majority, and Storey became Premier. He served until his death in 1921.
Balmain elected three Labor and two Nationalist MPs in 1922, and again elected four Labor members in 1925.
The 1927 election saw a return to single-member districts, and Balmain reduced to a smaller single-member district. At that year’s election, the official Labor candidate, Harry Doran, was challenged by sitting Labor MLA HV Evatt, who had been elected as a member for the multi-member Balmain district in 1925. Evatt won re-election as an independent Labor candidate.
In 1930, Evatt was appointed to the High Court and didn’t contest Balmain. John Quirk, whose neighbouring seat of Rozelle had been abolished in the redistribution, was elected in Balmain for the ALP. Evatt later went on to serve as a federal MP, federal minister, and leader of the federal ALP from 1951 to 1960.
Quirk died in 1938, and the 1939 Balmain by-election was won by his wife Mary. She held the seat until 1950, when she ran as an independent after losing Labor preselection. She lost to official Labor candidate John McMahon.
McMahon served as a minister in the Labor government from 1959 until the government lost power in 1965, and he retired in 1968.
Roger Degen held Balmain for the ALP from 1968 until his retirement in 1984. That year the seat was won by Peter Crawford.
In 1988, Crawford lost Balmain to former Olympic swimmer Dawn Fraser, running as an independent and ending over 80 years of Labor domination in Balmain.
Fraser held the seat for one term. In 1991, Balmain was abolished, and Fraser was defeated in an attempt to win the new seat of Port Jackson.
Port Jackson was won in 1991 by Sandra Nori of the ALP. Nori held the seat until 2007. In 2003, Port Jackson was the main target for the Greens, with Jamie Parker reducing Nori’s margin to 7.3%.
In 2007, Port Jackson was again renamed Balmain, and shifted west to lose Ultimo, Pyrmont and Sydney CBD and gained Haberfield. Nori retired, and the ALP preselected City of Sydney councillor Verity Firth. Greens councillor Rochelle Porteous reduced the ALP margin to 3.8%.
In 2011, Firth lost Balmain to Greens candidate Jamie Parker. The Liberal candidate came first on primary votes, with Parker narrowly outpolling Firth and winning the seat on her preferences. Parker was more comfortably re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Greens MP Jamie Parker is not running for re-election.
- Stephen Bisgrove (Sustainable Australia)
- Philippa Scott (Labor)
- Kobi Shetty (Greens)
- Glen Stelzer (Public Education Party)
- Freya Leach (Liberal)
Assessment
Balmain was reasonably safe for the sitting member. It’s an open question how much of his margin is a personal vote as opposed to a more general support for the Greens.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jamie Parker | Greens | 21,065 | 42.7 | +5.3 |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 14,227 | 28.9 | -2.9 |
| Wenjie (Ben) Zhang | Liberal | 9,875 | 20.0 | -4.9 |
| Emilia Leonetti | Keep Sydney Open | 2,268 | 4.6 | +4.6 |
| Anita Finlayson | Animal Justice | 1,103 | 2.2 | +0.3 |
| Angela Dunnett | Sustainable Australia | 761 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Informal | 781 | 1.6 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jamie Parker | Greens | 24,074 | 60.0 | +5.3 |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 16,037 | 40.0 | -5.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Elly Howse | Labor | 28,127 | 70.5 | +4.7 |
| Wenjie (Ben) Zhang | Liberal | 11,795 | 29.5 | -4.7 |
Booths in Balmain have been split into three areas, named after the key suburbs of Balmain, Leichhardt and Glebe. Lilyfield and Annandale have been grouped with Leichhardt, Birchgrove and Rozelle have been grouped with Balmain, and Forest Lodge and Ultimo have been grouped with Glebe.
The Greens won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.7% in Leichhardt to 61.8% in Balmain.
The Liberal Party came third, with a vote ranging from 17.3% in Glebe to 22.1% in Balmain.
| Voter group | LIB prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Leichhardt | 18.7 | 60.7 | 12,223 | 24.8 |
| Balmain | 22.1 | 61.8 | 9,795 | 19.9 |
| Glebe | 17.3 | 60.9 | 7,706 | 15.6 |
| Other votes | 22.1 | 59.0 | 10,675 | 21.7 |
| Pre-poll | 19.6 | 57.6 | 8,900 | 18.1 |
Election results in Balmain at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Greens, Labor and the Liberal Party.
(Though Scott did this on Twitter I think. Not the Meme page)
Whoops I thought the comment I wrote before the one above got on the page but clearly it didn’t
I’d say the big 2PP and PV swings to Labor in Balmain were partly attributable to the statewide popularity of Minns and the Labor brand – it’s like a rising tide lifting all boats. This could explain why Labor scored huge swings in Miranda and Terrigal (which they are close in) as well as safe Liberal seats that they were never gonna win (e.g. Castle Hill, Hornsby).
It made sense for Labor to have broad appeal across middle-ring, outer-suburban and regional electorates where there was next to no competition from the Greens, except maybe in Lismore. As @Adda alluded to, the antagonism between the Greens and Labor helped Labor win a swag of seats where it counted.
Locally, there were unique factors: Albo’s presence and Jamie Parker’s departure. What appears is that Labor scooped up ex-KSO and ex-AJP voters or minimised their votes going to the Greens, which they probably preferenced in 2019.
“What do people think was the effect of Labor’s (pathetic) lies about “Vote Greens Risk Perrottet” messaging in terms of psephological values? I earlier found a clip of Tim Ayres saying this lie in the Senate chamber (Which Ben Raue and Andrew Bartlett called out).”
***
They did exactly the same thing in Griffith at the recent federal election. The desperate claim that time was that if Labor didn’t get to 76 seats then Morrison would remain PM, which of course was completely false. It’s like they expected everyone to forget that the Gillard gov didn’t have a majority. Screenshot: https://i.ibb.co/fGmDyXB/bazzi2201.png
“Bizarre? It was listed on the ABC website as seats in doubt yesterday. Labor’s objective is to win seats for Labor what’s so bizarre about that?”
***
They could have directed the resources they wasted on Balmain to other seats held by the Coalition, then perhaps they wouldn’t be in the situation they are now wondering if they are going to reach a majority or not. Balmain was not held by the government and the Greens had clearly stated that they were willing to work with Labor and ruled out working with the Coalition. I’m not suggesting that Labor shouldn’t contest Balmain at all, they are perfectly entitled to do that, but the huge effort they put into it this time looks like it could really come back to bite them now that the Libs are clawing back ground in the late counting.
“Greens cannibalize the Labor vote. Its likely costed Labor majority government”
***
You say that as if it’s a bad thing! It’s really not.
Greens voters aren’t Labor voters. You don’t own that vote, only the individual owns their vote and they are entitled to do whatever they want with it.
In the overall context of the election, Balmain doesn’t matter much. But for the ALP to win elections it needs voters in Western Sydney. One way to do that is actually have a bit of a go in a Green electorate or two, try to tie the Greens to the Libs (relatively easy if the Libs have a Turnbull or Kean) and hope that resonates enough with your outer suburban voters. I doubt they were truly going after Balmain – although it does play an outsize role in how Labor thinks of itself.
@Mostly Labor Voter
I think all this Balmain campaign did was damage Labor long-term in the area (the effects I doubt will come until a bit later but WILL eventually happen). Labor got a swing this time to them, but I believe it permanently alienated (*) the 41% Primary and 52% 2pp that remained with the Greens this time. TBH the Greens should really tap into the fact that Labor lied in this area, and brand them as untrustworthy. It should be enough to keep Labor from controlling a hypothetical deamalgamated Leichhardt Council 2025 because a ((very) simplified) calculation would only need the Greens to repeat what they got this time in State Balmain (easy given *) to keep Labor out of council control/mayor there. (We will assume Glebe area voters aren’t much different to Leichhardt/Balmain voters for simplicity. Probably true anyway from the map)
It would be harder for the Greens to do this strategy in areas overlapping Griffith like Greenslopes and Bulimba because at the point of Labor exclusion, Greens only had 36% (Assume this is the percentage that got permanently alienated by Labor in this case). Even if Labor loses even more ground to the Greens, taking enough (admittedly lots) Liberal votes can make the Greens lose via a 2pp between Labor and the Greens. Once they are an incumbent (e.g. Max/Amy/Jonno), they follow a different rule I think.
My interpretation of the ‘Risk Perrottet’ line is that it was probably effective, or at least it’s the most effective line of attack open to Labor in progressive electorates. As John said Labor simply won’t risk having a good-faith contest of ideas in nominally Greens-friendly electorates. Obviously they’ve tried similar tactics at the federal election, particular in Brisbane, and it didn’t work nearly so well for them there. The difference of course is that the Greens have an effective campaign machine in inner-city Brisbane to counter Labor misinformation campaigns. In Sydney, it’s patchy at best.
People can quibble over primary vs 2cp vote if they like, the reality is that we have preferential voting, and the only lesson Labor will learn from this campaign is that they can win in Greens-held electorates. They don’t care if the necessary tactics are inherently mendacious.
“and the only lesson Labor will learn from this campaign is that they can win in Greens-held electorates”
***
Learning the lessons of victory by tasting defeat? Well I suppose that’s one way to look at it…
Balmain was meant to be this big test for the Greens to see if we could hold a seat after a retirement. It was being billed as such all campaign by Labor and the media. I think now that the ABC has called it, it’s pretty safe to say that we passed the test.
Kobi Shetty claimed victory a few hours ago via FB: https://www.facebook.com/KobiShettyGreens/
The booth results are interesting here seems to show a class divide with the areas with best water views around Balmain East and Birchgrove being best for the Greens but Labor picked up a swing in more Inland Annandale and Leichardt.
Bear in mind that lines up with the wards of the two candidates. The Greens candidate represents Balmain, while the Labor candidate represents Leichhardt. I think it’s far more likely to be that than some class divide.
Good point Ben, I did not pick that up. i thought differences in property prices may have accounted for difference in voting patterns.
Freya Leach was a great Liberal candidate. She’s young and can appeal to young people with more moderate views, plus she has an active social media presence, etc, while at the same time being staunchly pro-Israel and anti-Hamas and she voted No to the Voice. The problem is she ran in Balmain, a seat the Liberals have never won (and a seat it never will win).
She could run for the Legislative Council or the Senate, or perhaps she could contest the nearby federal seat of Reid, or of course she could contest the key seat of Strathfield (which is usually a marginal Labor seat but is certainly winnable for the Liberals). I doubt she’d contest Drummoyne despite it being the safest option since Stephanie Di Pasqua’s also young and a good local member so she won’t resign any time soon. But Freya’s definitely someone I’d like to see elected to Parliament, she just needs the right seat to contest.
Any thoughts?
Nether, she should contest Reid if she is that serious of a “moderate”
Moderate? Freya Leach? Really? Everything I’ve ever heard about her suggests she isn’t moderate at all, right down to her status as the head of the University of Sydney’s Conservative Club.
@Wilson she is considered “centre-right” at least, according to the Sydney Morning Herald:
https://amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/conservative-student-shamed-in-sydney-uni-exam-controversy-20221108-p5bwk2.html
Anyway, she does appear to be pro-climate action:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11852269/NSW-election-Liberal-Balmain-Freya-Leach-mocked-TikTok-videos-Sydney-Uni-scandal.html (it’s in a photo caption somewhere, not trying to give attention to TikTok trolls or the DailyMail, which is not a reliable source for most things)
Also I don’t think saying “let’s show young people a real recession” is gonna play well in any seat other than any with an extremely large older population. (Also ignoring that anyone at the ripe old age of 18 has lived through two major recessions already)
freya leach lost votes for the liberals in balmain, there’s no evidence she ‘appeals to young voters’ in any sense whatsoever, which isn’t surprising to me given she has no demonstrable talent other than staging a handful of idiotic stunts that elevated her voice above the cacophony of idiotic right-wing punditry for all of about two minutes, mostly to remind the few people who cared that she is indeed still an annoying attention-seeking idiot. i dunno if she’s even still good at that, because the counter-protest she organized for israel last week struggled to crack double digits attendance as palestine supporters have been turning out in their thousands every single weekend for months on end. so please run her again. in fact parachute her into as many marginal contests as you like, with as many gen-z voters as possible.
I’m a young moderate voter, and everything I’ve heard about Leach (including her own words) terrifies me. Being young and far-right and a muppet doesn’t change the fact that you’re far-right and a muppet.
Freya Leach filmed herself ripping Pro-Palestine Posters during 0-Week at Sydney Uni. She is very pro-Israel as stated above. However, nearly all moderate Liberals such as Dave Sharma, Katie Allen, Kellie Sloane, Paul Fletcher are Pro-Israel as well. I am not which seat she will run in. However, I dont think she can run in a seat like Werriwa with such a position. She appeared on Sky after Dark recently link below.
Ripping posters is infantile and a mark of very low character.
While I agree with her position. She cannot position herself as a moderate nor can she position herself as someone who can win marginal Labor territory for the Liberals by ripping posters. I agree Israel is the victim here but you don’t see me ripping posters or shouting inflammatory remarks at rallies. Free speech is free speech but you can only go so far.
And appearing on Sky News is a sin in itself. Peda Credlin is a fascist and a disgrace to this country and any politician with a brain would not appear on her show.
Bolt is no better either.
Agree Nicholas and Daniel, you can still be pro Israel like Dave sharma and the other politicians and also mature as I recall those public figures argued their points in a clearly articulated manner and didn’t resort to childish acts like freya leach.
Interestingly, if there was CPV Labor could have won this seat in 2023 assuming Liberal preferences flowed at the same rate as for Grayndler and Sydney. Any thoughts about whether Labor could win back Melbourne or state seats of Brunswick when current incumbents retire assuming Liberal preferences go to Labor.
This is the first example of a green mp retiring. This area has changed massively the average value of any residence in Balmain would be greater than $2m. This is now a wealthy area where people don’t wish to vote Labor but can’t vote liberal thus they vote green. It is very difficult for Labor to take any seats off sitting gr mps.
I live in an area which has a large Arabic population. I want peace in the middle east.. targeted assignations are not the way. Nor is the setting pagers and similar.
I think a condition for peace is that you do not have a right wing Israeli govt in power.
@ MQ
I agree with you. Do you think there is an opening if a sitting Greens retire and there is CPV with Liberal preferences going to Labor
@mick unfortunately we will probably not get it any time soon. They have fighting over that area of land for 1000s of years. As long as there is terrorism and Muslims targeting Israel’s for the only reason they are Jewish and sekking the destruction of the jewish state Israelis will elect that sort of govt to protect them. A condition of peace will be the disarmament of groups like hezbollah and hamas and the cessation. Of indiscriminately firing weapons into non military targets. I agree Israel shouldn’t do that but until the have another choice they do it because they feel they must
@nimalan that time has come and gone the libs do preference them but the greens have become entrenched and they aren’t a party of govt so people have no real reason to vote them out. If they couldn’t win this with an outgoing mp an incoming Labor state govt and a relatively popular pm at the time they won’t be winning it any time soon
Example of Middle East mess…. Ghaza. Massive casualties at least 10s of thousands. Hamas isn’t justified in what they did nor are Israel. If stupid actions by Hamas are matched by equally insane actions by Israel where does it stop.? Usa provides weapons to Israel … israeli spies target “H” assignation even during peace talks. Israel spends years planning how to make pagers and similar blow up. ……
@mick yes but they are targeted attacks designed to minimise civilian casualty. Ie only the terrorists had the pagers. The the ,assvie casualties are a result of harassment placing military targets in heavily populated civilian areas. They are not civilian targets any more. And don’t forget these are people who support and sometimes parcipated in hamas actions. The solution is for hmas to be destroyed
Israel is not deliberately targeting civilians (not on a wide scale anyway) they are simply collateral damage
@ john I don’t mean to be rude…. but targeting military targets when you know this will incur civilian targets is wrong. talking about collateral damage is just a justification. Hamas and Israel appear to be 2 sides of the same coin if I lived in Israel I am sure I would be offside with the rulers. If I lived in Ghaza likewise. In short I would have a very short live expectation. The area is of course unsafe for anyone
Maybe in Gaza yes as you seen in Israel protests are allowed. It’s the same as saying if someone is holding a human shield and shooting at you do you shoot back and risk killing the hostage or do you just continue let them shooting at you. Otherwise your just incentifising to keep doing it. Yes innocent people have died. Innocent people always die. But remember Hamas started this war. The people of Gaza put Hamas in power and largely supported their actions. You don’t see Jews and Israelis is celebrating in the streets across the world over the killing of innocent’s do you.
On the topic of Balmain, I’d say that unless Labor manages to recruit a high-profile, popular, Labor left candidate and if the Greens MP goes on TV/social media and says something completely unjustifiable (probably need a combination of both to be realistic), the Greens will have this seat for a very long time. Greens are known for being ingrained in their seats once they get in, and unlike the likes of Ballina Balmain is a seat that the Liberals run dead anyway which means their preferences won’t go anywhere.
@Mick Quinlivan I absolutely agree with you. When governments and extremist groups (Hamas/Hezbollah) target the likes of civilians (both Palestinians and Israelis) in pursuit of their own extremist agendas they both need to be held to account. The Israeli government is shambolic and Hamas is just a troublemaker who doesn’t care about sovereignty seriously and in the end it’s the people that suffer. Australia needs to push for more than a ceasefire, but they need to influence America to pull their support for Israel and pursue a two-state solution ASAP.
On the topic of Freya Leach, remember that Albo was a borderline communist when he was that age.
@ John
I agree with you on the following points no disagreement
1. The Greens are not a party of government and there is less incentive to vote them out especially with a sitting member
2. 2023 was the best time to win Balmain with an incoming Labor government and an outgoing Greens member.
However, where i differ is that assuming there was FPV instead of OPV, would Labor have won Balmain yes or no in the 2023 circumstances
@ Tommo9
I agree with you very difficult to take back a seat from the Greens especially once they entrench themselves. However, i am pointing an example where there is a tide towards Labor for example 2023 and a retiring Greens member and there is full Preferential voting with Liberal preferences electing Labor over the Greens. In Ballina, Labor will not make the 2CP so it is a mute point
Nimalan,
With regards to Ballina. The National Party vote is in this area is in rapid decline, as their supporter base in dies of old age. Who do you believe will replace the National Party in the 2CP, if not Labor?
@ Watson Watch
I am not convinced that the National Party vote is rapid decline. Byron Shire is Greens heartland and there will be centre right voters in Ballina Shire who will look to either Nats or Libs. I cant imagine it will be a GRN V LAB seat in fact Labor only got 22% primary in a Good election.
Anyway why dont you make some comments about Balmain since that is the topic of the thread?
Nimalan,
Thanks for the response and apologies if I have ruffled your feathers.
I have never lived in Balmain, nor have I ever been a member of either the Greens or the Labor Party, so that seat is outside my personal experience.
@ Watson Watch
No need to apologize. The point i was trying to make is that theoretically if there was FPV instead of OPV Labor would have won Balmain in 2023 based on the primary votes and assuming the Libs preferenced them. It is a wider point that maybe there is a narrow path to recover some Green held seats in the perfect circumstances. For example i dont think Labor can win Ryan a seat they never won in a general election but is it possible to pick up Adam Bandt seat when he retires and is a high tide election for Labor?
@Watson Watch there are young people in the regions who vote Nationals, so saying “the Nationals supporter base is dying of old age” is a pretty stupid comment. You also have to remember that regional and rural areas are older than metropolitan areas.
@Nimalan i would think its impossible for labor to win Adam bandts seat should he retire. The seats only becoming more progressive and labor is becoming less and less relevant. All corresponding state seats are now held by the Greens. The Liberal vote is still strong in certain parts and i could see this becoming a very safe Greens vs liberal seat in the future
I think Sydney will stay with Labor (and be Labor vs Liberal) even when Plibersek retires but Grayndler could go Greens win Albo retires.
Why? Pyrmont is like Docklands, it is a small-l-liberal area and the Yes vote was lower there than in most other parts of the electorate. Millers Point is even more Liberal-voting than Pyrmont ever has been. Millers Point is right in the CBD yet it’s very Liberal-voting.
It would be interesting to see how a major, well-funded Brisbane City Council-style LNP campaign with moderate candidates for wards and for Lord Mayor would pan out in Sydney and Melbourne if they had LGAs covering large portions of the city like how the City of Brisbane covers most of the Brisbane metropolitan area. I wonder if that Liberal Party could win back suburbs like Pyrmont and Docklands from Labor and the Greens respectively.
This is my prediction. Plubersek will likely retire between 2028-2031 depending on when she feels she wants to go. People often retire when they’ve been around too long and want something else, health or family reasons, and often whn a government is about to fall as they’ve been there along time and don’t want to be in opposition for the remainder of their expect shelf life. Given she’s 55 and still going and the govt is expecting to lose this election I’d expect her to stay around until 208 when she might call it quits ahead of an expected loss. Or maybe afterwards causing a by election or at the 2031 election. Unless they are the only holding the seat like in Richmond with justine lliot and why albo has protected Neumann from gender quotas in Blair but expect Neumann to go in 2028 if he doesn’t lose this time around. Albo will call it quits when he loses an election so after the 2025 or 2028 elections in my opinion.
@ Up the Dragons
I think you have made some excellent point namely
1. The seat will get more progressive over time. Agree there will be a growth in young renters will new apartments built
2. Labor is less relevant over time. Agree the Housing commission vote is being diluted and much of the area is becoming less CALD over time. Yes there is a growth in international students, expats in the CBD but they dont vote.
However, a couple of points to clarify
3. Agree there is a decent Liberal vote in East Melbourne, Docklands. I think the former is being diluted by population growth elsewhere especially around the new Arden Metro station and Docklands is less wealthy these days.
4. For this reason i dont see the Liberal vote ever exceeding 25% and if Labor gets 32% when Adam Bandt retires, Do you see a pathway in those circumstances
I can see Labor having a shot but it’s not guaranteed. Despite the commentary by liberal commentators I believe having bands and the greens in parliament is beneficial to the libs because it forces Labor to move left to defend seats and that helps the libs take seats on Labor right
The Liberal vote more than halved in Docklands at the last federal election, from 33.4% to 16.4%. Bandt had 47.6% of the primary vote. On those numbers, Docklands doesn’t look at all friendly to the Liberals anymore, even by inner-city Melbourne standards.
@Nicholas there was a –17.06% swing against the Liberals in Docklands in 2022, that’s the only reason the vote dropped that much but I agree it is dropping.