Ballina – NSW 2023

The Nationals have preselected Josh Booyens for Ballina. He seems to be a very similar candidate to Ben Franklin – ideologically and style-wise, with less profile. I doubt he’s the guy to win this seat back.

Greens hold.

Ballina and Byron Shire’s populations have shot up in recent years. Costs of living and rent and mortgage stress are big issues. White-collar WFH professionals (who earn capital city salaries), sea and tree changers and property investors and Airbnb hosts have flocked to this area. Rents have skyrocketed and many are priced out of the housing market, even in smaller and more inland towns. I doubt this trend would favour the Nationals amongst the locals who were here pre-pandemic.

Yes green hold and Lismore will be alp retain

Agree with Votante, the Richmond result points to Smith’s margin considerably blowing out here. Especially with a weaker Nationals candidate.

Ballina may have lost progressive votes to Lismore in the redistribution, however 70% of development in the Ballina Shire (not electorate) is in Lennox Head, which also has a large progressive voter base. I was a scrutineer for Mandy Nolan (Greens) in the 2021 Fed election at Lennox Head Public School and she got 801 vote to Justine’s (Labor) 449 and Kimberly’s (Nationals) 318. Myself and Simon Chate have also put in a lot of work at the community level as Greens Councillors in Lennox Head and Alstonville. Given people have a fairly poor understanding of different levels of government, I would expect at least some of the success of other Greens candidates and reps would transfer to Tamara in critical localities. My (somewhat biased) analysis of the Ballina Shire is that it is trending more progressive not conservative, in part due to the housing crisis and increasing wealth, which is why the Nationals are running progressive candidates. Josh is running a good campaign but I’d be shocked if they can win it back. Increasing FPV in the South of the electorate will be critical for Greens to retain the seat into the future.

The result in Lennox federally points to an even stronger argument for the Nationals to employ tactical voting at the State level in order to evict the Green. By having no chance of success themselves then the next best option and to give Ballina a real voice in government is for the Nationals to vote Labor.

with the independat in the mix it could cause serious problems for the green member dependaing on how well he does

while this will be a greens retain if the greens form minority govt with labor this should be in play in 2027

Kevin Loghrey contested the Ballina local Government election and polled fairly poorly, but he has been doing a lot of full page anti-vax adverts in the local rags so could potentially pull a higher vote from the Byron Shire 🤔

Likely. Green retain

@ agreed Mick and it’s only a matter of time before Richmond goes green too if they continue stealing votes from labor at the rate they are.

“Stealing votes”, makes it sound like those votes rightfully belong to a party instead of to the voters who make up their own minds. Surely there’s a better term to use than that. Winning votes, perhaps?

@I’m assuming most people will and nth it was 3am. Yes I mean I mean labor voters going over to the greens. If rix hmond doesn’t fall at the 2025 election 2028 for sure

There might some sort of deal, Animal Justice Party not running in any of the 3 seats currently held by Greens.

I think betting-lines are overstating the chance of Greens victory here. Labor and Nationals still in with a real shot of winning. I know that Greens usually perform very well once they have established themselves as incumbents, but Ballina stands out as a significantly different seat to Greens other seats across the country.

We do not know if there will be some sort of tactical voting or preferencing performed by Nationals or Labor voters to get rid of the Greens here. Ballina, like Tweed & Lismore is fairly old demographically. These voters might have been blindsided by the Greens victory last election.

Conversely, the other potentiality is that Smith has built a strong profile and will receive a sophomore surge in this division. Rural and regional communities tend to have greater awareness of and affinity with their local representatives and this could be beneficial for Smith.

Still would argue Greens are the favourite here, but would give them a 60% chance of a win, with Nationals and Labor fighting over the remaining 40% chance. Not the ~90% chance the betting-line currently implies.

SEQ observer, Tamara Smith was first elected in 2015 so she would have achieved a sophomore surge factor when running for re-election in 2019. She did face a high-profile National opponent at that election, then MLC Ben Franklin and successfully added 1-2% to her margin.

The new National candidate seems to be a bit weaker and also the bulk of this district is Byron Shire, which is like Noosa in Queensland being known for having people who live alternative lifestyles (so called hippies). Noosa as a state district swung against the LNP and elected left leaning independent Sandy Bolton in 2017, so I see Tamara Smith being like Sandy in Noosa and basically retaining the seat until she decides to leave on her own terms.

Although a caveat is that Ballina district contains both Byron and Ballina LGA’s whereas Noosa district in Qld only consists of its namesake council. Ballina LGA is a more traditional, conservative leaning area where the Nationals get most of their strength so if their new candidate Josh Booyens is from this area, he may be able to solidify the conservative vote and keep the contest competitive.

Thanks @Yoh An, apologies. I misremembered how recently Tamara was elected and the circumstances at the previous election. That betting line does in fact reflect the circumstances quite accurately then. Fairly familiar with Ballina, you are right in assessing it as a more traditional Nationals division. Ballina is similar to other NSW coastal towns of its size in that respect. Byron Bay and its surrounds are a bit of an outlier as a lifestyle enclave.

“These voters might have been blindsided by the Greens victory last election.”

***

The Greens have held Ballina for two terms, not one. Greens MP Tamara Smith increased her margin at the last election with a large 4.7% swing on primary. In an electorate that was already increasingly progressive and climate conscious, the recent floods which devastated the electorate will have only reinforced the need for urgent action, the likes of which Labor and the Coalition are totally reluctant to provide.

There was a significant political realignment in Richmond at the federal election which saw a surge in support for Greens candidate Mandy Nolan, putting that seat (which overlaps with the state seat of Ballina) within striking distance for the party at the next fed election. Ballina contains most of the strongest Greens areas from the Richmond electorate; Byron Bay, Mullumbimby, Ocean Shores, and increasingly the town of Ballina itself. This area is totally different to how it used to be decades ago when the Nats had a firm grip on it.

And so we are left with a member who lives in Lismore and if what I hear is true lives there because she cannot afford a house in Ballina and yet again if what I hear is true owns investment properties. Not your typical Green.

You know Labor are getting desperate when they have to resort to using discredited attacks from the Nats against the Greens. Smith lives all of 10km outside Ballina and goes there (to the town itself) every day for work – her office is in Ballina. Would take here a matter of minutes to get there. What a non-issue.

This is the same Labor who didn’t bat an eyelid over Kristina Keneally contesting Fowler in Western Sydney while living in a luxury multi-million dollar home on the ultra-exclusive Scotland Island off Sydney’s Northern Beaches! Talk about double standards! KK would have had to commute for hours and hours through the middle of Sydney to get to Fowler had she won it.

We joke about her being parachuted in, but even if she had a damn chopper and actually parachuted to work every day she still would have taken longer to get to Fowler than Smith would to get to Ballina. But KK sans chopper was apparently totally acceptable to Labor. But if you’re a Green living 10km away because you can’t afford to live closer, then that’s a massive problem apparently. That’s the real joke.

Ajay, did you do even a modicum of research before posting dubious gossip you’ve heard?

In eight years the “Member for Byron Bay” has accomplished nothing. Vote Green, vote for “a waste of space.”

Thanks for the comment with zero evidence or explanation. I think it should be obvious to all how nakedly partisan Ajay is.

if i were labor id be doing preference deal for balmain

Awesome result for Tamara and the Greens here!

+5% swing to the Greens, -3.6% against Labor, -6.8% against the Nats (as it stands right now with more counting to come).

A great endorsement of Tamara Smith as a local MP and of the Greens in general. Makes me so proud as a local!

Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! 😀

…so glad the Libs aren’t the ones chanting that tonight lol

Both the Nationals and Labor are still outpolling the Greens on the state level. If a redistribution removed Mullumbimby this could be a Nationals seat, but it would make Tweed a Nationals vs Greens contest (unless Lismore took it).

@NP atm both tweed and ballina are both near quota and on future projections ballina wont need and changes but the rest of the north coast will. so wouldnt require any changes. tweed would be better taking murwillumbah from lismore. given the serious problems in barwon im gonna do the following Barwon -> northern tablelands/tweed -> lismore -> clarence. that leaves about a 40% defeceit at which pont you can use the surplus in port stephens maitland cessnock upper hunter myall lakes port macquarie and oxley which adds up to about 43% to offset it. alternatelivey you could ush northern tablelands in to the remainder of clarence then cut off the southern parts of northern table lands

@John yeah I know it won’t be changing anytime soon but I just wanted to point out that if it were to remove those northern booths it would be Nationals vs Labor.

@NP i think from the coalition standpoint it would be preferable to put lismore and byron in one seat

@John valid but they aren’t as much of a community of interest as Ballina and Byron are even though both towns are completely different.

@np i dunno lismore is already been moved partially into byron shire my plan is to put murwillumbah in tweed then tenterfield shire northern tablelands then move lismore south into richmond valley

@John so what happens to Ballina in your proposal? Now that I think about it the other stuff seems pretty valid.

@np well based on current numbers ballina would remain unchanged. given how my clarence would move into oxley to cover that 40% deficit nad the fact oxley is alrady a federal division name i would suggest renaming oxley to Macleay after the river that runs through it

@John I think the name Macleay could work. It’s the river that runs through Kempsey. Where would Wauchope go in your proposal? Would it stay in Oxley or would it be moved?

@np the souther parts would stay in as it would only lose the northern parts.