Legislative Council – NSW 2019

History
The Legislative Council was directly elected for the first time in 1978. Since then the Council has been elected by a system of proportional representation, with the balance of power held by a variety of minor parties.

Prior to 1995, the Legislative Council was elected one-third at a time, with 15 seats up for election at each lower house election. No minor parties were elected at the 1978 election, but at the next four elections the Christian Democratic Party (under their former name of Call to Australia) won a seat, and at three of these elections the Democrats also won a seat.

The 1995 and 1999 elections produced results with a large number of minor parties winning seats. In 1995, single seats were won by the Christian Democratic Party, the Greens, the Democrats, the Shooters and A Better Future for our Children. In 1999, a seat was won by the CDP, Democrats, Greens, One Nation, Unity, Outdoor Recreation Party and Reform the Legal System.

Following the 1999 election result, the electoral system was changed to abolish ticket voting and allow individual voters to cast preferences for whole parties above the line.

At the 2003 election, the balance changed markedly, with the sole Christian Democrat and Shooters MLCs both re-elected, as well as the sitting Greens MLC. The Greens gained an extra seat.

In 2007, the same result was produced, with the two minor right-wing parties each winning a single seat in addition to the seat they won in 2003, while the Greens won two seats.

In 2011, the CDP and the Shooters and Fishers each maintained one seat, while the Greens won three seats (up from two in 2003 and 2007), producing a total crossbench of five Greens, two Christian Democrats and two Shooters and Fishers.

During this time, there were various results for the major parties. Labor won a majority of seats in 1978 and 1981, but the Labor representation gradually dropped from 9 to 6 from 1978 to 1991. The Coalition won six seats in 1978 and five in 1981, and then seven in 1984, 1988 and 1991.

In 1995, Labor and the Coalition each won eight seats out of 21 elected. Labor again won eight in 1999, but the Coalition dropped to six seats.

Following the change in the electoral system, both major parties gained seats in 2003. Labor’s seat count peaked at ten, with the Coalition increasing to seven.

Labor won nine in 2007, and the Coalition won eight. In 2011, Labor’s vote collapsed, and they only managed to win five seats, while the Coalition won eleven.

Labor partly recovered in 2015, winning seven seats. The Coalition won nine seats. The Greens retained their two seats, and the Shooters and Fishers and the Christian Democratic Party retained their seats. The Animal Justice Party won their first seat in any parliament in Australia.

Electoral system
The New South Wales Legislative Council is elected using a system of proportional representation, with all MLCs elected to represent the entire state.

There are 42 members of the Legislative Council, with 21 elected at each election for two terms. With such a large number of members elected as a single electorate, the quota is very low at 4.55%.

Up to the 1999 election, the upper house was elected with a ‘ticket voting’ system similar to that used in the Senate. This led to a situation where one third of seats were won by minor parties, some of whom won a very small vote.

Prior to the 2003 election, the system was reformed to abolish ticket voting. Under the current system, voters can vote ‘above the line’, but their vote will only flow to candidates of parties who have directly received a preference from that voter.

In practice this has significantly reduced the impact of preferences. There has only been two occasion swhere a candidate was leading before preferences were distributed but missed out after preferences: Pauline Hanson in 2011 and Peter Jones in 2015. These were both cases where the candidates were very close on primary votes.

Sitting MLCs

Term expires 2019
 Term expires 2023
Niall Blair (Nationals), since 2011 John Ajaka (Liberal), since 2007
Robert Brown (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers), since 2006 Lou Amato (Liberal), since 2015
Jeremy Buckingham (Independent), since 2011 Robert Borsak (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers), since 2010
David Clarke (Liberal), since 2003 Scott Farlow (Liberal), since 2015
Rick Colless (Nationals), since 2000 Cate Faehrmann (Greens), since 20188
Catherine Cusack (Liberal), since 2003 Justin Field (Greens), since 20169
Greg Donnelly (Labor), since 2005 Ben Franklin (Nationals), since 2015
Wes Fang (Nationals), since 20171 John Graham (Labor), since 201610
Paul Green (Christian Democrats), since 2011 Don Harwin (Liberal), since 1999
Scot MacDonald (Liberal), since 2011 Courtney Houssos (Labor), since 2015
Natasha Maclaren-Jones (Liberal), since 2011 Trevor Khan (Nationals), since 2007
Taylor Martin (Liberal), since 20172 Shayne Mallard (Liberal), since 2015
Sarah Mitchell (Nationals), since 2011 Matthew Mason-Cox (Liberal), since 2006
Daniel Mookhey (Labor), since 20153 Shaoquett Moselmane (Labor), since 2009
Peter Phelps (Liberal), since 2011 Fred Nile (Christian Democrats), since 1981
Peter Primrose (Labor), since 1996 Mark Pearson (Animal Justice), since 2015
Penny Sharpe (Labor), since 20054 Adam Searle (Labor), since 2011
David Shoebridge (Greens), since 2010 Walt Secord (Labor), since 2011
Dawn Walker (Greens), since 20175 Bronnie Taylor (Nationals), since 2015
Natalie Ward (Liberal), since 20176 Mick Veitch (Labor), since 2007
Ernest Wong (Labor), since 20137 Lynda Voltz (Labor), since 2007

1Wes Fang was appointed on 9 August 2017 to replace Duncan Gay, who resigned on 31 July 2017.
2Taylor Martin was appointed on 3 May 2017 to replace Mike Gallacher, who resigned on 6 April 2017.
3Daniel Mookhey was appointed on 6 May 2015 to replace Steve Whan, who resigned prior to the 2015 election.
4Penny Sharpe resigned from the Legislative Council in 2015 to run for the seat of Newtown. She was subsequently appointed to fill the same vacancy following the election.
5Dawn Walker was appointed on 22 February 2017 to replace Jan Barham, who resigned on 13 February 2017.
6Natalie Ward was appointed on 16 November 2017 to replace Greg Pearce, who resigned on 15 November 2017.
7Ernest Wong was appointed on 24 May 2013 to replace Eric Roozendaal, who resigned on 6 May 2013.
8Cate Faehrmann was appointed on 15 August 2018 to replace Mehreen Faruqi, who resigned on 14 August 2018.
9Justin Field was appointed on 23 August 2016 to replace John Kaye, who died on 2 May 2016.
10John Graham was appointed on 12 October 2016 to replace Sophie Cotsis, who resigned on 16 September 2016.

2015 result

Group Votes % Swing Quota Seats won
Liberal/Nationals 1,839,452 42.6 -5.1 9.38 9
Labor 1,341,943 31.1 +7.4 6.84 7
The Greens 428,036 9.9 -1.2 2.18 2
Shooters and Fishers 167,871 3.9 +0.2 0.86 1
Christian Democratic Party 126,305 2.9 -0.2 0.64 1
No Land Tax 82,054 1.9 +1.9 0.42 0
Animal Justice Party 76,819 1.8 +1.8 0.39 1
Voluntary Euthanasia Party 40,710 0.9 +0.9 0.21 0
No Parking Meters Party 34,852 0.8 -0.4 0.18 0
The Fishing Party 31,882 0.7 -0.6 0.16 0
Outdoor Recreation Party 31,445 0.7 -0.0 0.16 0
Others 115,129 2.7

On primary votes, the Coalition gained nine seats, Labor six, Greens two. The Shooters and Fisher, CDP and Labor were all in a strong position to win a seat, with one more seat wide open.

At count 374, when there was no more than one candidate left in each group, the leading candidates stood at:

  • Robert Borsak (SFP) – 0.8555 quotas
  • Courtney Houssos (ALP) – 0.8307
  • Fred Nile (CDP) – 0.6457
  • Peter Jones (NLT) – 0.4137
  • Mark Pearson (AJP) – 0.3913
  • Hollie Hughes (LIB) – 0.3716

Borsak, Houssos and Nile all stayed well ahead of the pack and won their seats at the end of the count, but the final seat was a close race between Jones, Pearson and Hughes.

The chart at the end of this section shows how these three candidates’ votes shifted in the final rounds of counting.

The Animal Justice and Liberal candidates gradually closed the gap with No Land Tax on each round of counting.

Pearson narrowed the gap substantially when the Outdoor Recreation candidate was excluded (count 386), and then made another big jump on Voluntary Euthanasia Party preferences (count 388).

The exclusion of Greens candidate Justin Field saw Pearson gain 4887 votes on Peter Jones, and pushed him into the lead. At this point, Hughes was eliminated and her preferences slightly extended Pearson’s lead, and Pearson won the final seat.

Candidates

    • A – Mark Banasiak (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
    • B – Rachel Evans (Socialist Alliance)
    • C – William Bourke (Sustainable Australia)
    • D – Greens
      1. David Shoebridge
      2. Abigail Boyd
      3. Dawn Walker
  • E – Emma Hurst (Animal Justice Party)
  • F – Raymond Brown (Advance)
  • G – Chris Osborne
  • H – Anthony Monaghan
  • I – Max Kaye (Flux)
  • J – Labor
    1. Tara Moriarty
    2. Penny Sharpe
    3. Greg Donnelly
    4. Anthony D’Adam
    5. Daniel Mookhey
    6. Peter Primrose
    7. Mark Buttigieg
    8. Julie Sibraa
    9. Michelle Miran
    10. Tri Vo
  • K – Liberal/Nationals
    1. Catherine Cusack (Liberal)
    2. Niall Blair (Nationals)
    3. Damien Tudehope (Liberal)
    4. Taylor Martin (Liberal)
    5. Sarah Mitchell (Nationals)
    6. Natalie Ward (Liberal)
    7. Natasha Maclaren-Jones (Liberal)
    8. Wes Fang (Nationals)
    9. Peter Phelps (Liberal)
    10. Alan Akhurst (Liberal)
    11. Steve de Gunst (Nationals)
  • L – Jeremy Buckingham (Independent)
  • M – Greg Walsh (Conservatives)
  • N – Tyson Koh (Keep Sydney Open)
  • O – David Leyonhjelm (Liberal Democrats)
  • P – Shayne Higson (Voluntary Euthanasia)
  • Q – Paul Green (Christian Democratic Party)
  • R – Angela Vithoulkas (Small Business Party)
  • S – James Jansson
  • T – Mark Latham (One Nation)

Assessment
Statewide polling suggests a small shift away from the Coalition and towards Labor, which should make Labor hopeful of winning eight seats (which would be three more than they hold now). The Coalition won’t have any chance of holding all eleven of their seats: they should be happy if they can hold on to nine, but could drop to eight.

The Greens will be defending three seats. They should win at least two, with an outside chance of a third. The Greens won three in 2011, and were not far off winning a third in 2015.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers should be able to retain their single seat. The Christian Democratic Party should also retain their seat, but their vote has been slowly dropping over time and they are slowly being eclipsed by the Shooters as the main conservative minor party in the state.

It’s possible another minor party could perform well and win a seat, like Animal Justice did in 2015.

23 COMMENTS

  1. You’d have to presume that One Nation would win at least one seat given they are currently polling almost 7%.

  2. greens recently had a nasty preselection which went to the courts to decide who was eligible to stand

  3. Mick that was actually for a casual vacancy for a hypothetical legislative council spot (Mehreen Faruqi’s, because she is standing for the federal senate) that is NOT up for reelection. Cate Faehrmann (who was deemed ineligble to run by party officials but disputed the ruling in court and won) narrowly defeated Abigail Boyd in the ballot.

  4. What do ALL these people do ? What is the point of an upper house in NSW. Why do we need one when QLD does not ? What a joke.

  5. QLD does need an upper house, lol. Or at least in my opinion any good electoral system shouldn’t commonly result in 1 party rule with little capacity for review and oversight of legislation by other parties. We don’t want more Sir Johs.

    I’d support unicameral legislatures if we moved to proportional electoral methods like the ACT legislative assembly or New Zealand House of Representatives where you basically have to get 50% of the vote to have an absolute majority (and every vote is 1 value, unlike the Australian Senate).

  6. Oh so there were 2,ballots. .the upper house ticket for 2019 & the casual vacancy for the upper house when the fed election occurs….did not understand that….there still was bitterness…thanks

  8. @Mark that has never happened. Whilst i don’t think it’s impossible for an unendorsed candidate to win a seat (an actual quota maybe more unlikely), it would require an extremely well-organised campaign to reach enough voters across the state. Pauline Hanson almost won a seat twice as an unendorsed candidate, but a few other attempts from people with reasonable profiles fell well short. I think it requires a campaign planned around looking at the actual number of raw votes needed, and how to get them, including ensuring you can muster up enough HTV distribution at polling booths to ensure people find your group on the ballot papers.

    This is also an issue for some of the other minor parties as to whether or not they are serious contenders.

    With the NSW party registration deadline being 12 months prior to the election, we can now look at the list of the only registered parties that will be eligible to nominate candidates under their name on the ballot papers for the election. See here http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/candidates_and_parties/registered_political_parties/list_of_registered_parties

    One Nation are there, but also the Australian Conservatives, and the LDP (under that name rather than the Outdoor Rec party), who might also be in the running for one of the final seats, and be competing for votes with the SFF and CDP. The Conservatives SA result suggests they might fall short, but the others will probably all be in the mix and could indeed all win seats, and all the extra right-wing competition will hurt the Coalition vote.

    I would think AJP have a consistent niche supporter base, which again may be just enough to win a seat.

    The Cyclists Party, if I understand correctly, have merged with Fiona Patten’s new Reason party, which I believe would mean they would be able to rename that registration to become the NSW arm of Reason. If so, they may have a shot at a seat, but I’m not sure their ‘brand’, especially outside Vic, is well-known enough.

    The other new contender that may attract some interest is the Keep Sydney Open Party. I think theirs is a good example of the need to look at raw votes. They may get some in the inner city seats, but opting for a ‘brand’ that is very inner-city focused will make it quite hard for them to accumulate enough votes outside inner Sydney to reach the 70,000+ they need to have a chance at a seat.

  9. In terms of the minor parties.

    I would think One Nation will definitely win at least 1 seat, the SFF should keep their one. The LDP could be in with a chance especially if Mark Latham runs for them. It is also possible for Reason to get elected especially if they can take the remainder of the AJP and the Green votes.

  10. It will be interesting to see what the presence of One Nation does to the minor party vote. One would think their presence would be a serious threat to the Shooters, but with the very low quotas here they may both win. I would think 2 ON/1 SFFP would be too much though. I suspect the Greens and AJP may have the same issue (i.e. either a third Green or AJP, not both).

    Also interesting will be the Christian right vote. Will this finally be the election to see the Christian Democrats fail to win? If the Conservatives run a high-profile candidate they may even split their vote enough that they could both fail. (I remember speculation this would happen in 2011 when Gordon Moyes ran for Family First, but FFP never made any headway in NSW even with him at the head of the ticket, so perhaps not.)

    As usual the Lib Dems’ chances will depend greatly on the ballot draw.

    It will also be interesting to see if there is any change in voting behaviour after Senate reform (i.e. people preferencing further than #1). I haven’t seen whether this happened in SA with their new system or not.

  11. Scratch Reason as a potential contender for a seat. The Cyclists Party appears to have been deregistered, so that option for them to get a name on the ballot paper through renaming appears to be dead.

  12. I believe the Cyclists are in the process of renaming which takes about a month. Therefore Reason should appear in a few weeks.

  13. I’m just going on the fact that they have disappeared from the list of registered parties on the NSWEC website. Don’t know why they’d be taken off if they’d merely applied to change their name.

  15. Mark Latham will 100% have a falling out with Pauline and serve most of his term as an independent. I’d bet my house on it.

  16. In your 2019 Candidate List there are TWO “H” groups:
    H – Anthony Monaghan
    I – Max Kaye (Flux)
    H – Labor
    Labor should be “J” not “H”.

  18. Galaxy Poll out today suggests a collapse in support for One Nation from 5% to 1% in the space of 2 weeks, and down from consistently around 8% over the last few months.

    Some good citizen has compiled all the NSW polls here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_New_South_Wales_state_election
    and there is a very clear downward trend for the ONP vote.

    1% would make Latham less certain of a spot, but probably still gets him there. Also noteworthy that a lot of hype around a high ONP vote at the recent WA and Qld elections didn’t really eventuate.

  19. Somehow I doubt the accuracy of this poll. PH is losing popularity with some but she is picking up support in other sectors. Effectively she is a continuing threat to liberal democracy.
    The latest interviews show that she is retreating from her fascist followers because she knows that others mowing down Islamic worshippers with an Armalite is not good for the bottom line. There is no way she can out gun Anning. Keep moving in the direction she is going and she might be merging PHON with Liberal Has se ever voted differently to Libs on any motion moved by Government?

  20. At least PHON support democracy, unlike the nutcases in the Greens who want to suspend it to take dictatorial control.

  21. Sherif
    If PHON members truly supported democracy they would not tolerate a dictator sacking their members. When Queensland ALP behaved in same style in April 1957 all of Gair Cabinet ( bar 1 “not too proud to take direction”) resigned. No PHON members have been happy to accept Hanson turfing out long standing members to entrench her position as the Idi Amin of Australian politics.

  22. I’m also dubious of One Nation support having dropped that low, it’s been bouncing around at or above 5% for several months so it could just be a weird cluster of data for this poll (or “shy” voters, but I’ve always found that a bit of a cop out explanation). But if we must naively assume that will be the result on election day, 1% would not be enough to win Latham a seat. Pauline Hanson herself polled better than that (as an independent) in 2003, and did not win a seat (another reason, incidentally, to be wary of taking this result too seriously in a vacuum). As far as I am aware, no party is recommending preferences to One Nation, so they’re extremely unlikely to be able to collect substantially more than their primary vote.

    I don’t believe One Nation will receive only 1% on primaries, but if they do they’re not winning a seat.

  23. NSW LC has been confirmed:

    L/NP – 8 (Down 3)
    Labor – 7 (Up 2)
    Greens – 2 (Net Move 0, since Jeremy Buckingham left the party)
    CDP – 0 (Down 1)
    SFF – 1 (Net Move 0)
    ONP – 2 (Up 2)
    AJP – 1 (Up 1)

    Effectively, this means an 11:10 split in favour of parties on the right.

    L/NP – 17
    LAB – 14
    Greens – 3
    ONP – 2
    SFF – 2
    AJP – 2
    CDP – 1
    IND – 1

    This means that the balance of power in the LC is effectively with SFF, ONP and CDP. All things considered, not the worst outcome for the Coalition. But it will be an entertaining LC

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