IND 10.7% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Greg Piper, since 2007.
Geography
Hunter. Lake Macquarie covers those parts of the City of Lake Macquarie on the west side of Lake Macquarie itself, as well as parts of the City to the north of the lake. The seat covers Cardiff, Morriset, Toronto and Fassifern.
History
The electoral district of Lake Macquarie has existed since 1950. The seat was held by the ALP from 1950 until the 2007 election.
Jim Simpson won the seat in 1950. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1956 until the government lost power in 1965. He held the seat until his death in 1968.
The 1969 by-election was won by Lake Macquarie Shire President Merv Hunter. He held the seat until his retirement in 1991. He was succeeded by his son Jeff Hunter. He won re-election in 1995, 1999 and 2003.
In 2007, Hunter was defeated by independent Lake Macquarie Mayor Greg Piper by 106 votes. Piper was re-elected much more comfortably in 2011 and 2015.
Candidates
- Kim Grierson (Greens)
- Laurance Taranto (Animal Justice)
- Greg Piper (Independent)
- Lindsay Paterson (Liberal)
- Marie Rolfe (Sustainable Australia)
- Jo Smith (Labor)
Assessment
Lake Macquarie is reasonably safe for Greg Piper, although a surge in support for Labor could weaken his position.
2015 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Greg Piper | Independent | 20,251 | 42.5 | +1.1 |
| Melissa Cleary | Labor | 14,625 | 30.7 | +10.2 |
| Daniel Collard | Liberal | 8,007 | 16.8 | -10.6 |
| Ivan Macfadyen | Greens | 2,363 | 5.0 | -1.7 |
| Susan Strain | Animal Justice | 1,143 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Kim Gritten | Christian Democrats | 898 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| Andrew Coroneo | No Land Tax | 412 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 1,596 | 3.2 |
2015 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Greg Piper | Independent | 24,152 | 60.7 |
| Melissa Cleary | Labor | 15,646 | 39.3 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Melissa Cleary | Labor | 19,309 | 63.2 | +20.6 |
| Daniel Collard | Liberal | 11,262 | 36.8 | -20.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Lake Macquarie have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
Independent MP Greg Piper won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against Labor) in all three areas, ranging fro 52% in the north to 67.4% in the south.
The Liberal primary vote ranged from 14.6% in the centre to 17.6% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB prim % | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 14.7 | 52.0 | 13,363 | 28.0 |
| Central | 14.6 | 61.1 | 9,817 | 20.6 |
| South | 17.6 | 67.4 | 8,596 | 18.0 |
| Other votes | 20.4 | 57.2 | 8,267 | 17.3 |
| Pre-poll | 18.3 | 71.1 | 7,656 | 16.1 |
Election results in Lake Macquarie at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Labor) and Liberal primary votes.
The Labor candidate for Lake Macquarie is Jo Smith.
http://www.lakesmail.com.au/story/5740921/labor-pitches-team-game-in-announcing-lake-candidate/?cs=750
Labor Gain, if they do well enough statewide, Same with Denison in the federal election, No IND is safe
Disagree. I see this as an IND hold. The Coalition, I think, will strategically send preferences to Piper over Labor. Piper received 1/3 of the preferences available in this seat at the last election, with the vast majority of the votes left over exhausting.
Labor will need some strong preference flows to win this seat or take votes off the Coalition or Piper and I don’t see it happening.
If the swing to Labor – state and federal – is more anti-Liberal than pro-Labor fuelled, then don’t expect Labor to be taking seats off independents.
I don’t see either Lake Macquarie or Denison falling.
As a resident in this electorate, I can tell you Mr Piper will retain this seat. His support ranges from the left to the right, and he is very active in the community.
Piper is a very popular local MP and I wouldn’t bet against him. I think the issue of who he backs in a minority government scenario could become an issue and if I were campaigning for Labor, I’d be pressing him on this. Preference flows will make it tough for Labor, but it will be close.
What has Greg Piper done for Lake Macquarie?
Has he recovered the coal royalties earned in his electorate?
No No No
What is the point of an independent, who spends more time on his recreational pursuits?
We DESERVE BETTER!!!!!!
Neither Labor nor Liberal are better alternatives. Liberals will never take this seat, and when Labor had this seat, they took us for granted. Piper has worked hard for getting resources in this seat. He ensured we have a Service NSW in Toronto, and successfully pushed for a remodel of Cary Street.
For those concerned about where preferences go … NSW has an ‘optional preference system’ which means no preferences flow anywhere unless you number them yourself on the ballot paper !!!
Piper should hold this until he retires.
The comment by Jim Griggs saying that “no preferences flow anywhere unless you number them yourself on the ballot paper” is not correct.
What happens is that “a group or party registers a GVT before an election with the electoral commission. When a voter selects a group or party “above the line” on a ballot paper, their vote is distributed according to the registered GVT for that group”.
Having counted votes in a Senate election under full-preferential system (with a huge ballot paper) I can say how disappointing it was to have to mark as invalid many ballot papers where the voter had lost count (sometimes in the 80s or 90s) even though the intention was clear based on dozens of marked preferences.
So the current system makes perfect sense.
Rodney, group voting tickets are not used for New South Wales state elections, or for federal elections now. So not sure of its relevance here.
I heard a rumour that Piper would be speaker in the next Parliament.
Rodney
Ben is correct but your comment shows up the fact that electorate are not aware of how the voting system works. We need Electoral Acts locked so no government can make changes.
Group voting tickets were introduced precisely because of the insignificant numeracy errors made predominantly by ALP voters were making ballot papers informal.
They were removed by Commonwealth Government when they did not suit major parties.