ALP 17.4%
Incumbent MP
Ryan Park, since 2011.
Geography
Illawarra. Keira covers suburbs in the City of Wollongong to the immediate north of the city centre, including the suburbs of Austinmer, Balgownie, Bellambi, Bulli, Coledale, Corrimal, Figtree, Keiraville, Russell Vale, Thirroul, West Wollongong and Woonona.
History
The electorate of Keira has existed since 1988, and has always been won by the ALP.
The seat was won in 1988 by the ALP’s Col Markham. He served in Keira until 1999, when, facing a preselection challenge, he moved to the neighbouring seat of Wollongong, which he held for one term, losing preselection in 2003.
In 1999, Lord Mayor David Campbell, standing for the ALP, narrowly defeated independent councillor Dave Martin. Campbell was appointed to the ministry in 2003.
Campbell moved up the ministerial ranks until he took on the portfolio of Transport and Roads in 2008. In mid-2010 Campbell resigned from the ministry following a scandal involving a visit to a gay sex club in Kensington.
Campbell retired in 2011, and Keira was won by Labor candidate Ryan Park. Park was re-elected in 2015.
Candidates
- Ryan Park (Labor)
- Chris Atlee (Liberal)
- John Gill (Sustainable Australia)
- Kaye Osborn (Greens)
Assessment
Keira is a very safe Labor seat.
2015 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ryan Park | Labor | 26,893 | 53.1 | +17.1 |
| Philip Clifford | Liberal | 13,988 | 27.6 | -7.6 |
| Elena Martinez | Greens | 7,110 | 14.0 | -1.6 |
| Joseph Carolan | Christian Democrats | 1,703 | 3.4 | +0.2 |
| Jason Leto | No Land Tax | 911 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 1,500 | 2.9 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ryan Park | Labor | 31,626 | 67.4 | +14.5 |
| Philip Clifford | Liberal | 15,298 | 32.6 | -14.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Keira have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.6% in the south to 69.6% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.8% in the centre to 16.8% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 16.8 | 69.6 | 15,206 | 30.0 |
| Central | 9.8 | 69.1 | 12,869 | 25.4 |
| South | 14.9 | 63.6 | 8,606 | 17.0 |
| Other votes | 15.5 | 65.1 | 8,841 | 17.5 |
| Pre-poll | 12.7 | 66.6 | 5,083 | 10.0 |
Election results in Keira at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Party swapper and Wollongong-based businessman, Chris Atlee has been preselected for the Liberals in Keira.
Has previously run for the Christian Democrats, Palmer United Party and now the Liberals.
I expect Ryan Park to further extend his margin to 20%+
Liberal Party’s best chance was running John Doherty back in 2011 and they still didn’t win, with all of the stars aligned.
Easy Labor hold.